厄尔尼诺事件和拉尼娜事件的成因与预测

通过对南极气温资料、环南极海冰资料、臭氧变化资料、太平洋海温资料、地球自转速度变化资料、厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜资料的综合验证,发现了构造运动与厄尔尼诺因果关系。大气、海洋与岩石圈的角动量交换在南半球和北半球有不同的形式,这是由陆海分布的差异决定的。南极上空臭氧变化和环南极海冰变化是赤道海温和全球气候准两年振荡的原因。其中,德雷克海峡的海冰变化起主要作用。这个结论给出了作者提出的“海洋锅炉效应”、“臭氧洞漏能效应”、“德雷克海冰气候开关效应”和“大洋地壳跷跷板运动”的相互关系,证明构造运动对厄尔尼诺的重要影响。强潮汐准4a周期的发现,表明南极海冰变化、东太平洋海温变化、地球自转变化和厄尔尼诺都具有4a准周期变化的原因。海温和海冰开关的准2a周期和日食-厄尔尼诺系数理论有较好的预测效果。     

Limiting hydrochemical factors for sustainability of water resources: The Cisjordanian experience

In Cisjordan, surface- and groundwater flow are either towards the Jordan Valley-Dead Sea-Arava Valley (the Rift) or the Mediterranean Sea. Due to upstream exploitation by riparians to the Jordan River, the historical annual flow, which fluctuated between 250 and 1100 Mm³, has declined to a mere 100-200 Mm³. The remaining flow south of Lake Kinneret is highly polluted and heavily loaded with salts. Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee) is one of the major water resources in the area. Annually, between 200 and 700 Mm³ reach the Lake as surface and groundwater flow. The relatively high salinity of the Lake is caused by thermomineral water discharging from springs and seepages located onshore and on the bottom of the Lake. The main factors causing deterioration of the groundwater quality in the Rift are of geogenic character. These are different types of brines, whose outflow and penetration into freshwater aquifers was triggered by overpumpage. Contemporary encroachment of seawater caused by intensive water exploitation in the Coastal Plain is manageable and reversible. However, due to lack of hydrogeological evidence, no such statement can be made about the circulation of seawater beneath the Coastal Plain and into the deep-seated Yarkon-Taninim aquifer or the upflow of brines in the Rift.The flow regimes of the different brine bodies could not be elucidated. Whether each such brine-body flows by its particular hydrological regime or whether the movement of the different bodies is intradependent or interdependent with the regional movement of fresh groundwater, remain open questions. Therefore, sustainable development of groundwater resources is clearly dependent on the elucidation of the relationship between changes in the pressure of the brine with depth and its relationship to the overlying freshwater.The average total annual recharge of all water sources in Cisjordan is 1820 Mm³, which means that the total production of water must be managed within the limits of this annual volume. During drought years, total groundwater extraction exceeds the safe yield, causing drastic lowering of water levels and upflow of saline waters from greater depths.Because of the structural complexity of aquifers and hydrochemical variability of the numerous groundwater bodies, new hydrochemical methods have been developed for the identification of groundwater bodies and for the elucidation of their origins. These methods combine macrochemical, microchemical, and isotopic evidences. By combining distribution patterns of rare earths, yttrium and stable isotopes, a complete picture of catchment lithology and the altitude and latitude of precipitation could be obtained.The area west of the Jordan River is characterized by the occurrence of transboundary surface- and groundwater basins in which fresh and saline water and brines flow across political borders between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. It is very difficult to assess separately the annual safe yield of water resources for each of the two national entities. Neither country may dispose independently of its waters and is usually at the mercy of the other riparian. There is as yet no general multilateral international treaty in force allocating the water resources of international watercourses. At present there are two rules for the management of the waters of an international drainage basin—the rule of Equitable Distribution, and the obligation Not to Cause Significant Harm. The rules of equitable distribution have tended to focus on the issue of quantities of water rather than on quality of water, which is really relevant to the issue of equitable distribution. Future negotiations on the uses of the basin will need to deal with issues of characteristic salinities and geochemical features and on their impact on equitable sharing of water resources.     

锡铁山片岩型铅锌矿床稀土元素成因标志

锡铁山(碳质)片岩型矿床具典型的"双层结构",笔者对层状矿体中硫化物、硅质岩及其围岩火山岩稀土元素分析表明,硫化物∑REE较低,在4.78×10-6～7.24×10-6之间,具明显负Eu异常,Ce异常总体不明显;硅质岩∑REE较高,在102.64×10-6～168.82×10-6之间,负Eu异常明显,Ce异常不明显;矿下中酸性火山岩的稀土元素总量普遍较高,负Eu异常明显,Ce异常不明显,矿上火山岩稀土元素组成变化较大,δEu值0.70～1.03(平均0.90),无明显Eu异常.分析认为,锡铁山(碳质)片岩型矿床是热水喷流-沉积作用的结果,成矿物质主要来自下伏火山岩及地壳深部.     

大气中性点区域偏振效应的地—气参量研究

随着中国多颗偏振遥感器搭载发射,偏振遥感成为对地观测领域一个新的增长点以及研究热点。由于大气散射具有较强的偏振效应,大气与地表偏振信号的分离是偏振对地进行有效观测和应用的一个现实问题与难点问题。本文利用晴空中有规律的偏振分布以及大气偏振中性点的性质,对利用大气中性点的偏振效应进行地表—大气偏振信息分离的可行性进行了论证。通过对大气中性点在辐射传输过程性质的计算,得出Babinet大气中性点区域的偏振效应以及基于Babinet中性点区域进行偏振对地观测的基本方法,研究重点阐述了从航空遥感和航天遥感两个层面对如何将大气中性点应用于遥感观测进行了讨论。结果表明:(1)Babinet中性点相比于其他两个中性点,更适合于偏振遥感对地观测中地—气偏振参量分离;(2)航空遥感搭载偏振传感器在Babinet中性点区域进行地表探测可以消除大气偏振,突出地物偏振信息,有效进行地—气偏振参量分离;(3)在太阳同步轨道的卫星遥感影像上能够有效识别偏振中性点区域;研究成果有效分离高分辨率偏振遥感地物反演中的大气偏振耦合效应,实现地表偏振反射信息最大化,对于偏振遥感的大气校正以及定量化水平的提升具有实践意义。     

利用常熟地震台同场地形变仪记录检测对比地球自由振荡信号

利用常熟地震台同场地观测的洞体应变仪、体应变仪、水管倾斜仪、垂直摆倾斜仪记录数据,采用小波变换与功率谱密度估计方法,检测2011年3月11日日本9.0级大地震激发的地球自由振荡信号,其中检测到47个球型基频振型（₀S₃—₀S₄₉）、15个环型基频振型（₀T₅—0T₂₅）以及部分球型谐频振型,与地球初步参考模型（PREM）理论频率值基本符合,表明检测结果较好。对比结果显示：水管倾斜仪检测球型振荡振型能力最强,垂直摆倾斜仪检测环型振荡振型能力最强;体应变仪可检测到清晰的环型基频振型,且信噪比较高;倾斜仪对自由振荡信号的检测能力优于应变仪。     

The Important Role Played by Atmospheric Angular Momentum in the Non-linear Prediction of the Variations in the Length of Day

The variation in the length of day has complicated time-varying characteristics and the traditional method for linear time series analysis is always difficult to obtain good effect of prediction. If the non-linear artificial neural network technique is adopted to predict the variation in the length of day, the topological structure of the network model is determined by the least square error method. By taking into account the close relation between the variation in the length of day and the general circulation of atmosphere, the axial sequence of atmospheric angular momentum is introduced into the forecasting model of neural network. The results show that the forecast accuracy is significantly improved by taking advantage of the combination of the length of day and the atmospheric angular momentum sequence in comparison with the individual adoption of the data of the length of day.     

Excitation of Annual Polar Wobble by Global Oceans

A reasonable and quantitative result on the variation of polar wobble excited by the oceans is not available at present. Numerous researches have shown that atmospheric motion is the greatest excitation source for the seasonal variations in the polar wobble and that oceanic motion is one of the main remaining excitation sources. The excitation of variation in the annual polar wobble caused by oceans from 1992 to 2004 both globally and in latitude dependence, have been studied in depth by means of the new generation of SODA oceanic data assimilation (SODA-1.4.2 and SODA-1.4.3) and the ECCO oceanic data assimilation. The result shows that the variation in the seasonal polar wobble excited by the SODA oceans is very close to that of the residual after the action of the atmosphere and land water is deducted from the geodesic excitation function for a large part of the investigated time interval, and that there is overall agreement between the two as regards the annual amplitude and phase. In addition, in comparison with the result of early SODA-Bata 7, the new generation of SODA oceanic excitation has achieved obvious improvements. The latitude distributions of the excitations of the annual polar wobble by the SODA and ECCO oceans are consistent in the Greenwich direction, while having obvious differences in the direction of 90° E.     

塔里木盆地肖尔布拉克剖面下寒武统底部硅质岩微量元素和稀土元素地球化学及其沉积背景

对塔里木盆地北部肖尔布拉克寒武系露头剖面中 8.8m厚的黑色页岩夹硅质岩组合中的硅质岩的系统采样分析表明,该硅质岩具有深源成因特征。其低的Th/U和Rb/Sr比也证明了其沉积时所具有的深部物源和热水注入迹象。硅质岩的稀土元素经北美页岩标准化后的Ce/Ce 从 0.4 2到 0.79,平均 0.5 7。Ce的负异常明显。这些稀土元素的参数特征与加利福尼亚弗朗希斯科杂岩 (FranciscanComplex)中沉积在大洋海底硅质岩的稀土元素特征十分相似。北美页岩标准化后的Eu/Eu 值从 8.0 5下降到 1.0 3。其相对较高的Eu/Eu 值很有可能反映了热水的注入。Eu/Eu 值从剖面底部到顶部的系统降低反映了剖面底部的热水作用最强烈,向上热水作用逐渐减弱。上述一系列的地球化学标志指示该硅质岩应沉积在离洋中脊不远的、具有深源物质/热水注入的远洋盆地背景中。结合区域地质和伴生黑色页岩地球化学的综合分析认为,该套硅质岩的形成与上升洋流的影响有关。上升洋流将形成于大洋盆地背景中的物质带到大陆边缘陆棚环境中发生沉积,造成了沉积在陆棚环境中的硅质岩,在地球化学组成上保留了其大洋盆地背景的特征     

地表的分形测量及其大地构造学意义

以湖北红安地区为例,采用投影覆盖法(projectivecoveringmethod)对地表进行了二维分形测量,结果表明,地表面积具有双分形(bifractal)关系,即具有小尺度的结构分形(texturalfractal)和大尺度的构造分形(structuralfractal),分叉点(breakpoint)的尺度为3610m,分维值都在2～3之间且结构分维值大于其构造分维值。可见,地表形态具有分形性质,分维值可以指示地表形态的复杂程度。构造分维值可作为构造活动强度的一个指标,可为大地构造单元的划分提供定量依据。复杂地表形态主要是由构造活动(内营力作用)和各种复杂表生地质作用(外营力作用)引起的,前者主要控制大尺度的地形起伏,后者则塑造小尺度的地表形态。地表分维值可以指示地表的发育成熟度,该地区小尺度的结构分维值大于大尺度的构造分维值表明其处于地表形态的发育晚期。此外,地表的分形尺度可以来用确定构造活动尺度,从而指导构造地质与找矿勘探研究。