考虑LS+AR模型基础数据量的极移预报研究

针对目前极移最小二乘(Least Square, LS)+自回归(AutoRegressive, AR)预报模型的单一数据选取方案, 提出分别考虑LS模型数据量和AR残差数据量的组合数据模式, 并对极移预报时单一数据和组合数据预报结果精度进行分析, 探讨模型输入数据量对极移预报精度的影响. 结果表明, 模型输入数据量的变化对极移预报结果影响较大. 采用组合数据预报的方式相比较于单一数据量预报方式精度更高, 特别是针对30--360 d跨度内的中长期预报, 组合数据量的极移预报精度可比单一数据量预报精度有较大改善. 结论证明组合数据在极移预报时具有一定的优势, 可为以后极移预报数据量选取提供一定的借鉴参考意义.     

Google Earth和天地图在林地变更中的应用比较和优化

在森林资源监测过程中,特别是涉及林地变更工作时,遥感影像发挥了重要的作用。在实际工作中,上级部门下发的标准影像存在部分地区影像分辨率不高的问题,影响了林地变更工作的正常进行。为了拓展影像资源,使林地变更工作顺利进行,该文对Google Earth和天地图影像及校正配准后的精度进行比较研究,结果表明,配准前的Google Earth影像精度明显优于天地图影像;面积在1万hm^2及其以下的乡镇配准后的影像精度较高。     

Earthquake, strong tide and global low temperature

＂La Madre＂ is a kind of upper atmospheric air current, and occurs as ＂warm phase＂ and ＂cold phase＂ in the sky of Pacific Ocean alternately. There exists this phenomenon, called ＂Oscillation Decade in the Pacific＂ （ODP）, for 20 - 30 years. It is concerned with 60 year cycle of the tides. Lunar oscillations explain an intriguing 60-year cycle in the world＇s temperature. Strong tides increase the vertical mixing of water in the oceans, drawing cold ocean water from the depths to surface, where it cools the atmosphere above. The first strong seismic episode in China was from 1897 to 1912; the second to the fifth was the in 1920-1937, 1946-1957, 1966-1980, 1991-2002, tsrectruely. The alternative boundaries of＂La Madre＂ warm phase and cold phase were in 1890, 1924, 1946 and 2000, which were near the boundaries of four strong earthquakes. It indicated the strong earthquakes closedly related with the substances＇ motion of atmosphere, hydrosphere and lithosphere, the change of gravity potential, and the exchange of angular momentum. The strong earthquakes in the ocean bottom can bring the cool waters at the deep ocean up to the ocean surface and make the global climate cold. the earthquake, strong tide and global low temperature are close inrelntion for each othen.     

海底扩张的潮汐模式

2000年6月底，东京以南的伊豆岛开始发生火山与地震活动。此后，在伊豆岛观测到异常的地壳变形，8月底，火山与地震活动达到高潮。对潮汐与火山和地震活动的关系进行了分析，认为：地壳变形是由伊豆岛的岩脉侵入引起的，并且与强潮汐天文条件相对应。根据观测和计算数据提出了海底扩张的潮汐模式。     

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关于“数字城市”的初步研究

 在研究数字城市体系框架和数字城市工程总体设计的基础上,讨论数字城市基础信息平台,以及电子商务、电子政务、智能交通、智能社区、安全保障、科技教育、文化娱乐和信息服务等职能;探讨数字城市工程的数据获取与更新、数据库、网络、行业信息工程和数据标准等体系     

Prograde metamorphic sequence of REE minerals in pelitic rocks of the Central Alps: implications for allanite–monazite–xenotime phase relations from 250 to 610 °C

The distribution of REE minerals in metasedimentary rocks was investigated to gain insight into the stability of allanite, monazite and xenotime in metapelites. Samples were collected in the central Swiss Alps, along a well‐established metamorphic field gradient that record conditions from very low grade metamorphism (250 °C) to the lower amphibolite facies (～600 °C). In the Alpine metapelites investigated, mass balance calculations show that LREE are mainly transferred between monazite and allanite during the course of prograde metamorphism. At very low grade metamorphism, detrital monazite grains (mostly Variscan in age) have two distinct populations in terms of LREE and MREE compositions. Newly formed monazite crystallized during low‐grade metamorphism (<440 °C); these are enriched in La, but depleted in Th and Y, compared with inherited grains. Upon the appearance of chloritoid (～440–450 °C, thermometry based on chlorite–choritoid and carbonaceous material), monazite is consumed, and MREE and LREE are taken up preferentially in two distinct zones of allanite distinguishable by EMPA and X‐ray mapping. Prior to garnet growth, allanite acquires two growth zones of clinozoisite: a first one rich in HREE + Y and a second one containing low REE contents. Following garnet growth, close to the chloritoid–out zone boundary (～556–580 °C, based on phase equilibrium calculations), allanite and its rims are partially to totally replaced by monazite and xenotime, both associated with plagioclase (± biotite ± staurolite ± kyanite ± quartz). In these samples, epidote relics are located in the matrix or as inclusions in garnet, and these preserve their characteristic chemical and textural growth zoning, indicating that they did not experience re‐equilibration following their prograde formation. Hence, the partial breakdown of allanite to monazite offers the attractive possibility to obtain in situ ages, representing two distinct crystallization stages. In addition, the complex REE + Y and Th zoning pattern of allanite and monazite are essential monitors of crystallization conditions at relatively low metamorphic grade.     

Soil saturation index of salt marshes subjected to spring‐neap tides: a new variable for describing marsh soil aeration condition

Organized spatial distribution of plants (plant zonation) in salt marshes has been linked to the soil aeration condition in the rhizosphere through simplistic tidal inundation parameters. Here, a soil saturation index (ratio of saturation period to tidal period at a soil depth) is introduced to describe the soil aeration condition. This new index captures the effects of not only the tidal inundation period and frequency but also the flow dynamics of groundwater in the marsh soil. One‐dimensional numerical models based on saturated flow with the Boussinesq approximations and a two‐dimensional variably saturated flow model were developed to explore the behaviour of this new soil aeration variable under the influence of spring‐neap tides. Simulations revealed two characteristic zones of soil aeration across the salt marsh: a relatively well aerated near‐creek zone and a poorly aerated interior zone. In the near‐creek zone, soils undergo periodic wetting and drying as the groundwater table fluctuates throughout the spring‐neap cycle. In the interior, the soil remains largely water saturated except for neap tide periods when limited drainage occurs. Although such a change of soil aeration condition has been observed in previous numerical simulations, the soil saturation index provides a clear delineation of the zones that are separated by an ‘inflexion point’ on the averaged index curve. The results show how the saturation index represents the effects of soil properties, tidal parameters and marsh platform elevation on marsh soil aeration. Simulations of these combined effects have not been possible with traditional tidal inundation parameters. The saturation index can be easily derived using relatively simple models based on five non‐dimensional variables. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

土压力滑楔理论的统一解

基于滑楔理论计算土压力的基本原理,运用考虑中间主应力效应的统一强度理论,对传统的土压力公式不能反映土体材料强度的中间主应力效应的公式进行了改进,推导了基于滑楔理论的土压力统一解公式,Coulomb和Rankine土压力公式为其特例.通过变换统一强度参数,可获得一系列的解.在工程运用中可根据土质和工程的实际情况,适当选择统一强度参数和应力状态来确定土压力的大小.     

GPS无线电掩星数据处理系统

GPS无线电掩星技术能提供高精度、高分辨率、全球覆盖的地球电离层和中性层大气剖面。它具有全天候、低费用、无系统长期漂移等优点。从1995年4月至1997年3月,首次GPS／MET试验的成功显示了GPS掩星技术对监测全球大气能够发挥重要的作用,从而成为当前空间探测技术的研究热点之一。该文主要叙述了无线电掩星技术的数据处理系统的有关情况,并介绍了美国UCAR的掩星数据处理系统CDAAC的概况,可作为我国开展无线电掩星计划有关工作的借鉴。