Expected loss‐based alarm threshold set for earthquake early warning systems

Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) seem to have potential as tools for real‐time seismic risk management and mitigation. In fact, although the evacuation of buildings requires warning time not available in many urbanized areas threatened by seismic hazard, they may still be used for the real‐time protection of critical facilities using automatic systems in order to reduce the losses subsequent to a catastrophic event. This is possible due to the real‐time seismology, which consists of methods and procedures for the rapid estimation of earthquake features, as magnitude and location, based on measurements made on the first seconds of the P‐waves. An earthquake engineering application of earthquake early warning (EEW) may be intended as a system able to issue the alarm, if some recorded parameter exceeds a given threshold, to activate risk mitigation actions before the quake strikes at a site of interest. Feasibility analysis and design of such EEWS require the assessment of the expected loss reduction due to the security action and set of the alarm threshold. In this paper a procedure to carry out these tasks in the performance‐based earthquake engineering probabilistic framework is proposed. A merely illustrative example refers to a simple structure assumed to be a classroom. Structural damage and non‐structural collapses are considered; the security action is to shelter occupants below the desks. The cost due to a false alarm is assumed to be related to the interruption of didactic activities. Results show how the comparison of the expected losses, for the alarm‐issuance and non‐issuance cases, allows setting the alarm threshold on a quantitative and consistent basis, and how it may be a tool for the design of engineering applications of EEW. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Petrographic and mineralogical study of hydrothermal alteration of the Rokko Granite at Hakusui-kyo and Horai-kyo along the Arima-Takatsuki Tectonic Line in western Japan

Field, hand specimen, and microscopic investigations alongside X-ray diffraction analyses revealed four types of hydrothermal alteration (Type-A, -B, -C, and -D) based on the mode of occurrence of altered rocks and alteration mineral assemblage at Hakusui-kyo and Horai-kyo along the Arima-Takatsuki Tectonic Line (ATTL) in western Japan. Type-A alteration locally occurred as gray alteration halos with sulfide minerals. Type-B and -C alterations were confined to fault gouge veins and occurred as greenish-gray veins and brown veins, respectively. Type-C alteration crosscut Type-B alteration. These alterations were associated with a number of granitic fragments including cohesive breccia and micrographic facies. Type-D alteration occurred locally in brown sediments. Different mineralogical features in the four alterations are summarized as (Type-A) illite; (Type-B) chlorite; (Type-C) limonite (Fe³⁺ hydroxides and goethite) and calcite; and (Type-D) limonite. We propose that the alterations can be broadly divided into Paleocene hydrothermal alteration (Type-A) and post-Late Miocene hydrothermal alteration (Type-B, -C, and -D): Type-A alteration occurred at approximately 200 °C during hydrothermal activity after a granitic intrusion in Late Cretaceous; Type-B, -C and -D alterations occurred under hydrothermal activity accompanying deep fluids with repeated ascents invoked by the seismicity of the ATTL after the Late Miocene. The fluids may have been the “Arima-type thermal waters” (i.e., mixtures of convective groundwater and Na-Ca-Cl-HCO₃-type fluids). Type-B alteration occurred in fractures at depths where the temperature was ≥150 °C. Type-C alteration overprinted Type-B alteration as a result of mixing of new deep fluids and descending oxidized meteoric water near the surface. Fe³⁺ hydroxides and calcite precipitated from the fluids due to the oxidation of Fe²⁺ and the degassing of CO₂, respectively, at ambient to near-boiling temperatures. When the ascending fluids gushed out from the fractures, they generated Type-D alteration at the surface under similar temperature conditions due to the oxidation of Fe²⁺.     

Early J2 basalts in SE China: Incipience of large-scale late Mesozoic magmatism

Magmatism in SE China was dormant during 204–180 Ma, but was reactivated in 180–170 Ma (early J₂), and then became more and more intensive towards the end of early Cretaceous. The small-scale early J₂ magmatism is the incipience to long-term and large-scale magmatism in this region. A near east-west (EW) trend volcanic belt was distributed across south Hunan, south Jiangxi and southwest Fujian was formed during early J₂ time. Along this belt from the inland toward the coast, the lithology of basalts changes from alkali into tholeiite, and the amount of erupted volcanic rocks and the proportions of rhyolites coexisting with the basalts increase. On the basis of geochemical characteristics of these basalts, we infer that the melting degree of source rocks and the extent of fractional crystallization and crustal contamination all increased whereas the depth of mantle source decreased from the inland to the coast, which led to the variations of geological characteristics of the volcanic belt. In early J₂, the western spreading Pacific plate began to subduct underneath SE China continental block, reactivating near EW trend deep fault that was originally formed during the Indosinian event. The stress of the western spreading Pacific plate and the extent of asthenosphere upwelling increased from the inland to the coast, which is consistent with the generation and evolution of early J₂ basalts.     

Grain-size features of a Miocene loess-soil sequence at Qinan: Implications on its origin

In northern China, the Quaternary loess-soil se-quences[1] and the Hipparion Red-Earth Formation in the eastern Loess Plateau[2―6] provide a continental climate record for the past 8 Ma. The recently reported Miocene[7] and Pliocene[8] loess-soil sequences near Qinan constitute an eolian record of the western Loess Plateau from 22 to 3.5 Ma. Earlier studies[9] place the Miocene loess deposits into the so-called Gansu Sys-tem. Our investigations show that the Gansu System contains inde…     

Stable Eocene Magnetization Carried by Magnetite and Iron Sulphides in Marine Marls (Pamplona-Arguis Formation,Southern Pyrenees,Northern Spain)

In order to establish the magnetic carriers and assess the reliability of previous paleomagnetic results obtained for Eocene marine marls from the south Pyrenean basin, we carried out a combined paleo- and rock-magnetic study of the Pamplona-Arguis Formation, which crops out in the western sector of the southern Pyrenees (N Spain). The unblocking temperatures suggest that the characteristic remanent magnetization (ChRM) is carried by magnetite and iron sulphides. The ChRM has both normal and reversed polarities regardless of whether it resides in magnetite or iron sulphides, and represents a primary Eocene magnetization acquired before folding. Rock magnetic results confirm the presence of magnetite and smaller amounts of magnetic iron sulphides, most likely pyrrhotite, in all the studied samples. Framboidal pyrite is ubiquitous in the marls and suggests that iron sulphides formed during early diagenesis under sulphate-reducing conditions. ChRM directions carried by magnetic iron sulphides are consistent with those recorded by magnetite. These observations suggest that magnetic iron sulphides carry a chemical remanent magnetization that coexists with a remanence residing in detrital magnetite. We suggest that the south Pyrenean Eocene marls are suitable for magnetostratigraphic and tectonic purposes but not for studies of polarity transitions, secular variations and geomagnetic excursions, because it is difficult to test for short time differences in remanence lock-in time for the two minerals. The presence of iron sulphide minerals contributing to the primary magnetization in Eocene marine marls reinforces the idea that these minerals can persist over long periods of time in the geological record.     

锆石对地球早期地壳演化和构造体制转换的启示

锆石是研究早期地球演化的重要矿物之一,它的U-Pb年龄结合其微量元素以及同位素成分是反演寄主岩石成因乃至地球动力学背景的重要手段.本文从锆石矿物包裹体、微量元素、U-Pb同位素体系、Lu-Hf同位素、O同位素以及Si、Zr和Ti同位素这6个方面综述了近10年来前人取得的主要研究成果,总结了次生矿物包裹体可能产生的方式以...     

Volcanic resurfacing and the early terrestrial crust: Zircon U-Pb and REE constraints from the Isua Greenstone Belt, southern West Greenland

The oldest known bona fide succession of clastic metasediments occurs in the Isua Greenstone Belt, SW Greenland and consists of a variety of mica schists and rare metaconglomerates. The metasediments are in direct contact with a felsic metavolcanic lithology that has previously been dated to 3.71 Ga. Based on trace element geochemical data for > 30 metasediments, we selected the six samples with highest Zr concentrations for zircon extraction. These samples all yielded very few or no zircon. Those extracted from mica schists yielded ion probe U/Pb ages between 3.70 and 3.71 Ga. One metaconglomerate sample yielded just a single zircon of 3.74 Ga age.The mica schist hosted zircons have U/Pb ages, Th / U ratios, REE patterns and Eu anomalies indistinguishable from zircon in the adjacent 3.71 Ga felsic metavolcanic unit. Trace element modelling requires the bulk of material in the metasediments to be derived from variably weathered mafic lithologies but some metasediments contain substantial contribution from more evolved source lithologies. The paucity of zircon in the mica schists is thus explained by incorporation of material from largely zircon-free volcanic lithologies. The absence of older zircon in the mica schists and the preponderance of mafic source material imply intense, mainly basaltic resurfacing of the early Earth. The implications of this process are discussed.Thermal considerations suggest that horizontal growth of Hadean crust by addition of mafic-ultramafic lavas must have triggered self-reorganisation of the protocrust by remelting. Reworking of Hadean crust may have been aided by burial of hydrated (weathered) metabasalt due to semi-continuous addition of new voluminous basalt outpourings. This process causes a bias towards eruption of Zr-saturated partial melts at the surface with O-isotope compositions potentially different from the mantle. The oldest zircons hosted in sediments would have been buried to substantial depth or formed in plutons that crystallised at some depth, from which it took hundreds of millions of years for them to be exhumed and incorporated into much younger sediments.     

A timescale decomposed threshold regression downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall

A timescale decomposed threshold regression(TSDTR) downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall(SCESR) is described by using long-term observed station rainfall data and NOAA ERSST data. It makes use of two distinct regression downscaling models corresponding to the interannual and interdecadal rainfall variability of SCESR.The two models are developed based on the partial least squares(PLS) regression technique, linking SCESR to SST modes in preceding months on both interannual and interdecadal timescales. Specifically, using the datasets in the calibration period 1915–84, the variability of SCESR and SST are decomposed into interannual and interdecadal components. On the interannual timescale, a threshold PLS regression model is fitted to interannual components of SCESR and March SST patterns by taking account of the modulation of negative and positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO). On the interdecadal timescale, a standard PLS regression model is fitted to the relationship between SCESR and preceding November SST patterns. The total rainfall prediction is obtained by the sum of the outputs from both the interannual and interdecadal models. Results show that the TSDTR downscaling approach achieves reasonable skill in predicting the observed rainfall in the validation period 1985–2006, compared to other simpler approaches. This study suggests that the TSDTR approach,considering different interannual SCESR-SST relationships under the modulation of PDO phases, as well as the interdecadal variability of SCESR associated with SST patterns, may provide a new perspective to improve climate predictions.     

不同闪电跃增算法在北京地区应用效果对比

基于S波段多普勒天气雷达基数据、北京闪电定位网全闪定位数据和北京地区降雹的人工观测结果,对比分析Gatlin和σ两种闪电跃增算法在不同配置下对北京地区2015—2018年共177次冰雹天气过程的预警效果。结果表明：不同倍数的σ算法预警结果差别很大,2σ（要求当前闪电频数变化率超过之前平均闪电频数变化率两倍标准差）在σ算法中的预警效果最佳;不同N（总闪频数变化率的数量）配置下的Gatlin算法的预警结果差别不大,其中当N=6时的预警效果最佳。2σ算法的命中率、虚警率和临界成功指数分别为80.2%,41.6%和51.1%,N=6的Gatlin算法的相应结果分别为82.5%,62.0%和35.2%。另外,详细分析了一次多单体雷暴过程和一次飑线过程中两种算法的应用情况,结果也表明Gatlin算法比2σ算法的命中率略高,但虚警率偏高很多,临界成功指数偏低。综合Gatlin算法和σ算法对冰雹预报结果评估情况,发现2σ闪电跃增算法更适于对北京冰雹天气的预警,对提升闪电数据在北京地区冰雹预报业务的可用度有一定参考价值。     

气候系统翻转点的早期预警方法研究

针对气候系统的非线性特征导致预测/预警气候突变困难的问题,本文从气候系统的长程相关性出发,利用零维气候模型和两个折叠模型,研究了在一个动力系统缓慢趋近其临界翻转点的过程中,系统的长程相关是否有某种一般性变化规律.结果 显示,3个不同分岔模型在趋近其自身临界翻转点的过程中,表征系统长程相关性的Hurst指数均呈持续增大趋...