新疆北天山地区中强震前单台地震波参数异常特征研究

强地震的孕育过程也是孕震介质的形成过程,在强震前震源附近小地震的地震波运动学,动力学特征的变化过程,则反映了孕震介质的变化过程,为研究地震的孕育,发展和发生的过程,采用单台地震波振幅比,尾波持续时间比,尾波衰减系数这３项地震波参数作为地震学短期前兆指标,分析其震兆特征,从而达到监测孕震介质变化的目的,研究结果表明,单台地震波参数能够有效地发现地震的前兆,但地震波参数的前兆图像复杂多变,不具有统一的     

Numerical simulation of dynamic process of the Tangshan earthquake

In this paper, the new LDDA (Lagrangian Discontinuous Deformation Analysis) method is used in modeling the dynamic process of the MS=7.8 Tangshan earthquake on July 28, 1976 and obtain directly the dynamic and quasi-static dislocations, shear stress drops, fracture velocities of the Tangshan earthquake fault. The simulation shows that the slip history at each point of the fault is different. The displacement vectors at the concave side of the fault is greater than that of the convex side of the fault. The "over shoot" of the fault slip is greatest at the middle part of the fault and attenuates to its ends. The rupture velocities of the fault from the epicenter towards south-west and towards north-east are 3.08 m/s and 1.18 m/s, respectively, the average one is 2.13 m/s. The maximum dynamic and quasi-static dislocations are 7.1 m and 6.2 m respectively, the average quasi-static one on the fault is 4.5 m. The maximum dynamic and quasi-static shear stress drops are 8.1 MPa and 5.4 MPa, respectively, the average quasi-static shear stress drop is 3.9 MPa.We found that the rupture velocities and shear stress are related to the initial stress states of the fault.     

A dynamic network model for two‐phase immiscible flow

A dynamic pore‐scale network model is formulated for two‐phase immiscible flow. Interfaces are tracked through the pore throats using a modified Poiseuille equation, whereas special displacement rules are used at the pore bodies. The model allows interfaces to move over several pore‐lengths within a time step. Initial computational results are presented for a drainage experiment to demonstrate some of the features of the model. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Approaches to analyse and model changes in impacts: reply to discussions of “How to improve attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts”*

ABSTRACT

We thank the authors, Brunella Bonaccorso and Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen for their constructive contributions to the discussion about the attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts. We appreciate that they support our opinion, but in particular their additional new ideas on how to better understand changes in impacts. It is great that they challenge us to think a step further on how to foster the collection of long time series of data and how to use these to model and project changes. Here, we elaborate on the possibility to collect time series of data on hazard, exposure, vulnerability and impacts and how these could be used to improve e.g. socio-hydrological models for the development of future risk scenarios.     

Geochemical Aspects of Hypogene Hydrothermal Alteration Zones in the Chol-qeshlaghi Area, NW Iran: Constrains on REEs

Chol-qeshlaghi altered area lies in the northwestern part of the post-collisional Urumieh-Dokhtar magmatic arc, NW Iran. Pervasive silicic, argillic, phyllic and propylitic altered zones appears to be intimately affiliated to the fluids derivative of upper Oligocene Khankandi granodiorite. This paper is dedicated to the identification of geochemical characteristics of hydrothermal alterations, focusing on the determination of the mass gains and losses of REEs, to gain significant insights regarding the chemical exchanges prevailed between the host rocks and hydrothermal fluids. The low pH and high activity of SO_4~(-2) ligands in silicic alteration fluids, resulting in depletion of entire REEs. Decreasing of LREEs appeared in argillic zone may attributed to reduce in adsorption ability of clay minerals in low pH; whereas HREEs enrichment in phyllic zone was inclined to put it down to the abundance of sericite(± Fe oxides). A significant reduction of Eu/Eu* ratio in silicic zone can be attributed to negligible sulfides and clay minerals as some effective agents in adsorption of released Eu~(+2). Factors such as changes in pH, the abundance of absorptive neomorph mineral phases, activity of ligands play an important role in controlling the distribution and concentration of REEs in Chol-qeshlaghi alteration system.     

分层随机抽样下全球30 m火烧迹地产品验证

火烧迹地是全球及区域碳循环和气候变化等研究所需的重要参数之一,卫星遥感技术为快速获取大区域火烧迹地空间分布信息提供了有效手段。中国科学院基于Landsat系列卫星数据研发了首个30 m空间分辨率全球火烧迹地产品GABAM (Global Annual Burned Area Map)。遥感数据产品的精度验证对产品使用具有重要意义,迄今尚未有研究机构对GABAM产品精度进行独立评价和分析。为系统评价GABAM产品精度,利用2010年全球30 m空间分辨率火烧迹地产品(GABAM2010)开展精度验证研究工作,在全球和几个陆地生物群落中估算了产品精度,并探索了全球遥感专题产品精度验证的技术框架。基于分层随机抽样选择80个非重叠的泰森多边形区域TSA (Thiessen Scene Areas),采用误差矩阵和6个精度指标对GABAM2010产品做全面精度评价和分析,以满足火烧迹地产品用户的使用要求。结果表明:在全球范围内,GABAM2010产品的错分率和漏分率分别为24.32%和31.60%,总体精度为97.85%;由于数据质量(如条带、云)等的影响,火烧迹地的范围会被低估,对于较容易发生火灾的生物群落,如热带亚热带草原区域,GABAM2010产品精度较高;在生物群落内部,高密度火烧迹地区域的精度高于低密度火烧迹地区域。     

VLBI观测双线极化条纹拟合方法

提出了一种可用于下一代VLBI观测系统(VGOS)的双线极化条纹拟合方法。现有的VLBI观测模式采用的是右圆极化(RCP),而VGOS系统采用的是双线极化。本文方法包括校正和组合条纹拟合两部分。校正部分选择一颗强源作为参考源,分别得到不同极化方式下的通道时延及相位校正数据,用于目标源的校正。组合条纹拟合部分将4种极化分量的可见度数据组合成伪Stokes分量,通过搜索差分星位角使伪Stokes分量的幅值达到最大,从而获得最终的时延观测量。与单极化条纹拟合相比,组合极化获得的条纹具有更高的信噪比(SNR)及更小的条纹相位弥散度。     

我国干旱地区一次直升机自然结冰试飞天气个例分析

2018年3月17日、27日,国产某型直升机在新疆五家渠地区成功完成2架次自然结冰试飞。利用NCEP/NCAR的1°×1°再分析资料、机测液态水含量资料结合常规气象资料,对2次结冰天气过程的天气环流形势、动力热力特征、液态水含量进行分析。结果表明:17日在高空冷涡、地面冷锋前的环流形势下,试飞高度层位于冷暖平流交汇处,温度为0～-4℃,比湿值为3～3.5 g/kg,处于强水汽辐合中心,并伴有弱上升运动,Ic积冰指数为20～30,云中液态水含量波动较大,飞机挂架上形成0.5 cm厚度的凇冰。27日在高空槽前和地面冷锋后的环流形势下,试飞高度层在弱冷平流中心附近,温度为0～-2℃,比湿值接近4.5 g/kg,处于弱水汽辐合中心边缘,伴有弱上升运动,Ic积冰指数为30～40,云中液态水含量稳定,飞机挂架上形成1～2 cm厚度的明冰。在气象保障中运用探空、云图、雷达、微波辐射计等资料有效预报了积冰区域及高度。     

采用辐照度基法对FY-1C气象卫星可见近红外通道进行绝对辐射定标

介绍另一种在轨卫星传感器绝对辐射定标——辐照度基法定标,并利用敦煌辐射校正场对FY-1C卫星可见近红外通道进行定标。通常的反射率基法定标,表观反射率计算的一个重要误差来源是对气溶胶散射的近似计算。辐照度基法定标采用实际测量的漫射与总辐射比来代替辐射传输计算的气溶胶散射。利用该方法对FY-1C卫星的5次定标结果表明,大部分日期辐照度基法和反射率基法定标结果非常吻合,肯定了辐照度基法的正确性,但在气溶胶含量较大时,辐照度基法提高定标精度的优点显现出来,能够减少辐射传输模式对气溶胶散射计算带来的误差,提高最终的绝对辐射定标精度。     

The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature in South Korea using dynamic linear models

The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature from 00 h out to 45 h in South Korea(38 stations) is performed using the DLM (dynamic linear model) in order to eliminate the systematic error of numerical model forecasts. Numerical model forecasts and observations are used as input values of the DLM. According to the comparison of the DLM forecasts to the KFM (Kalman filter model) forecasts with RMSE and bias, the DLM is useful to improve the accuracy of prediction.