高拱坝施工初-中期导流风险模型及应用

面向工程设计阶段,采用高拱坝施工动态仿真技术获取施工初-中期挡水度汛面貌数据,综合考虑水文、水力随机性因素,构建高拱坝施工初-中期导流风险模型,提出采用Monte Carlo方法耦合挡水度汛面貌数据和主要随机因素进行风险模型求解的方法。基于风险分析原理提出了导流洞设计的风险判别方法,给出导流洞尺寸设计优化的数学模型和具体步骤。通过金沙江上游某高拱坝工程案例分析的结果表明:所提风险模型及求解方法是适用的、有效的,该模型能够得到整个施工初-中期导流风险率,较为客观地反映高拱坝施工中期度汛可能存在的两种挡水情况,克服了初期导流风险模型的局限性;施工中期导流风险率随导流洞尺寸增大而减小,导流洞尺寸设计的可行方案集存在界限,即优化方案。研究成果可为高拱坝施工导流的风险决策和设计优化提供理论支撑。     

Numerical Simulation of Transportation of Marine Microplastics A Review

The temporal and spatial discontinuity of microplastic sampling data restricts the investigation on their source, sink, transport pathway and trend. Numerical simulation combined with sampling investigation can comprehensively study the effects of microplastic characteristics, meteorology and hydrodynamics on the distribution and transportation of microplastics. In this paper, the studies of microplastic numerical simulation were reviewed from the aspects of numerical simulating research and their applications in microplastic tranportation, and the results were summarized as follows: The construction of the main driving force (current); the influence of environmental factors, such as wind, waves, topography and extreme sea conditions on the properties of microplastics with different characteristics (particle size, density, shape) and their tranportation; the application of numerical simulation in the study of microplastic removal. Based on progress on the study of numerical simulation of marine microplastics, the future directions were pointed out that the further simulating studies should focuson the spatio-temporal distribution and evolvement of microplastics by combining sampling data and numerical model, the simulating research on the relationship between microplastic parameters (roughness, wind drag coefficient, settling rate, resuspension rate and biofouling rate) and (meteorological and ocean) dynamic condition. Moreover, the results of simulating sensitivity experiments should be compared with sampling and laboratory testing data to improve the empirical parameters and formulas of numerical model.     

福建重力台网映震效能分析

利用福建重力台网7套gPhone重力仪的连续观测资料,对不同震中距和震级地震的同震响应特征及重力仪映震的最大震中距进行分析。结果表明：1）福建重力台网的映震效能受震级和震中距影响,从映震能力来看,泉州台优于莆田台,厦门台优于福州台,漳州台和龙岩台优于南平台;2）福建重力台网的仪器稳定性好和灵敏度高,与CMG-3ESP 120S地震计相比,重力仪具有较宽的地震频带,其同震响应持续时间与波幅呈高度正相关性;3）福建重力台网仪器映震的最大震中距(Δ)与震级（M_S）存在对应关系,具体公式为M_S=-0.218(logΔ)3+2.056(logΔ)2-4.594logΔ+6.459。     

开合旋构造体系及其形成机制探讨:兼论板块构造的动力学机制

开合构造总体上可以表述为:地球膨胀为开,收缩为合;垂向上地球物质离心(地心)运动为开,向心运动为合;水平方向上地球物质相背运动为开,相向运动为合。从驱动机制角度,我们把以热力(热能)为主体驱动的上浮物质运动定义为开;将重力(势能)为主体驱动的下沉物质运动定义为合。因此,开与合是一个高度综合的概念,具有广阔的内涵,开合运动是联系一切地质运动和地质科学的纽带。开合运动具有同步统一性,即垂向的开在水平方向也表现为开;垂向开得强烈,水平方向同样开得强烈,反之亦然。地球刚形成时诸多开合构造是无序的,地球的旋转运动统领地球上所有物质、能量、运动和大大小小的各种开合构造于旋转运动中,并将它们调剂到有序状态。简言之开合构造体系是开合旋运动长期作用下形成的不同时期、不同层次、不同级别的开合旋回组成的动态平衡构造体系。本文总结了地球开合旋构造体系物质组成、结构构造特征和规律,建立了开合旋复杂构造体系简要模型。提出平衡体系的形成机制是开合旋运动遵循地球重力均衡准则、最小内能原理(结晶化)、几何淘汰生长(垂直地心生长)和物质均匀化四条自然演化规律,其中重力均衡准则是主导的。由于地质事件(构造运动)在破坏开合旋平衡体系的同时,经常直接或间接向体系内输入新能量,往往使新的旋回比老旋回的结构构造更符合地质演化的自然规律,于是使地球显得更强大而有活力。这一次又一次的地质事件(构造运动)是开合旋构造体系螺旋式向前发展的动因。本文最后用开合构造观点探讨了地球的形成和演化,分析了板块构造运动的动力学过程。     

中下部地壳拆离断层带演化中的褶皱作用:以辽南变质核杂岩为例

作为变质核杂岩构造的重要组成部分,拆离断层带内广泛发育的褶皱构造与其寄主岩石一样记录了中下地壳拆离作用过程。选取辽南变质核杂岩金州拆离断层带内褶皱构造作为研究对象,基于叶理与褶皱构造关系分析,划分了褶皱期次与阶段性;通过形态组构分析、结晶学组构分析及石英古温度计等技术方法的应用,初步分析了拆离断层内褶皱的形成机制,为辽南地区拆离作用过程提供约束。根据褶皱形成与拆离作用的时间关系,将拆离带内褶皱分为拆离前褶皱、拆离同期褶皱和拆离后褶皱;拆离作用同期的褶皱按时间早晚分为早期(a1)阶段、中期(a2)阶段、晚期(a3)阶段。不同阶段褶皱的野外形态、叶理与褶皱关系等方面的差异,以及形态组构与结晶学组构的特征,为判断和恢复褶皱的形成机制提供了佐证,揭示出拆离断层带褶皱是在纵弯压扁和顺层流变的共同作用下递进剪切变形的产物。在拆离作用过程中, a1阶段和a2阶段褶皱以纵弯、压扁褶皱作用为主,a3阶段褶皱以弯滑作用为主。褶皱作用记录了拆离断层一定温度范围内(主要集中在380~500 ℃)的变形特征,拆离作用从早期到晚期的演化整体处于相对稳定的应变状态下。对金州拆离断层带而言,在区域NW-SE向伸展过程中,还伴随着NE-SW向微弱的收缩。     

基于FLUS的长春市土地利用动态变化与预测分析

研究城乡土地利用变化规律与驱动机制,有利于实现区域土地资源可持续发展。本文以长春市为例,以监督分类与人工解译相结合的方式对1997、2007和2017年Landsat卫星影像进行分类,总体精度分别为93.06%,90.70%和94.12%。1997-2017年,草地、耕地和其他土地面积分别减少354.74、922.11和55.35 km²,建设用地、水域和林地面积分别增加1 154.14、70.38和107.54 km²,整体表现为建设用地向周边扩张,侵占其他用地类型面积。利用未来土地利用模拟（future land use simulation,FLUS）模型,以2007年分类数据为基础,结合地形、交通区位和社会经济等土地利用变化驱动因子,仿真2017年土地利用格局,仿真结果与真实情况吻合较好,仿真精度达85.10%,Kappa系数为0.821 2,验证了模型和驱动因子精度可靠,符合土地利用变化趋势。以此模型因子预测2027年土地利用格局,结果表明：在城镇周围,建设用地将持续侵占耕地、林地、草地和其他土地的面积,但趋势减缓,同时林地面积和水域面积增加。     

胜利油田油水井动态与华北地震关系的初步分析

近些年来,在收集总结大量复杂多样的地震前兆资料中,油水井动态异常以其变化量显著而引人注目。本文以近几年华北地区所发生的地震为实例,旨在分析研究胜利油田油水井的产油量、产液量、油水井压力(地层压力)在震前震后的变化规律。     

Dynamic responses of unsaturated half‐space soil to a moving harmonic rectangular load

The problem of the dynamic responses of a semi‐infinite unsaturated poroelastic medium subjected to a moving rectangular load is investigated analytical/numerically. The dynamic governing equations are obtained with consideration of the compressibility of solid grain and pore fluid, inertial coupling, and viscous drag as well as capillary pressure in the unsaturated soil, and they can be easily degraded to the complete Biot's theory. Using the Fourier transform, the general solution for the equations is derived in the transformed domain, and then a corresponding boundary value problem is formulated. By introducing fast Fourier transform algorithm, the unsaturated soil vertical displacements, effective stresses, and pore pressures induced by moving load are computed, and some of the calculated results are compared with those for the degenerated solution of saturated soils and confirmed. The influences of the saturation, the load speed, and excitation frequency on the response of the unsaturated half‐space soil are investigated. The numerical results reveal that the effects of these parameters on the dynamic response of the unsaturated soil are significant.     

Winkler model for dynamic response of composite caisson–piles foundations: Seismic response

A simplified method with a dynamic Winkler model to study the seismic response of composite caisson–piles foundations (CCPF¹) is developed. Firstly, with the dynamic Winkler model, the kinematic response of the CCPF subjected to vertically propagating seismic S-wave is analyzed by coupling the responses of caisson part and pile part. Secondly, a simplified model for the foundation–structure system is created with the structure simplified as a lumped mass connected to the foundation with an elastic column, and through the Fast Fourier Transformation (FFT) this model is enabled to solve transient seismic problems. Thirdly, the proposed method for the seismic response of CCPF-structure systems is verified by comparison against 3D dynamic finite element simulation, in which the Domain Reduction Method (DRM²) is utilized. Lastly, the mechanism and significance of adding piles in improving the earthquake resistance of the foundation and structure is analyzed through an example with different soil conditions. Discovered in this study is that adding piles under the caisson is an efficient way to increase seismic resistant capability of the soil–foundation–structure system, and the main mechanism of that is the elimination of the pseudo-resonance.     

Static and dynamic conceptual model of a complexly fractured crystalline rock aquifer

A conceptual model of anisotropic and dynamic permeability is developed from hydrogeologic and hydromechanical characterization of a foliated, complexly fractured, crystalline rock aquifer at Gates Pond, Berlin, Massachusetts. Methods of investigation include aquifer‐pumping tests, long‐term hydrologic monitoring, fracture characterization, downhole heat‐pulse flow meter measurements, in situ extensometer testing, and earth tide analysis. A static conceptual model is developed from observations of depth‐dependent and anisotropic permeability that effectively compartmentalizes the aquifer as a function of foliation intensity. Superimposed on the static model is dynamic permeability as a function of hydraulic head in which transient bulk aquifer transmissivity is proportional to changes in hydraulic head due to hydromechanical coupling. The dynamic permeability concept is built on observations that fracture aperture changes as a function of hydraulic head, as measured during in situ extensometer testing of individual fractures, and observed changes in bulk aquifer transmissivity as determined from earth tides during seasonal changes in hydraulic head, with higher transmissivity during periods of high hydraulic head, and lower transmissivity during periods of relatively lower hydraulic head. A final conceptual model is presented that captures both the static and dynamic properties of the aquifer. The workflow presented here demonstrates development of a conceptual framework for building numerical models of complexly fractured, foliated, crystalline rock aquifers that includes both a static model to describe the spatial distribution of permeability as a function of fracture type and foliation intensity and a dynamic model that describes how hydromechanical coupling impacts permeability magnitude as a function of hydraulic head fluctuation. This model captures important geologic controls on permeability magnitude, anisotropy, and transience and therefor offers potentially more reliable history matching and forecasts of different water management strategies, such as resource evaluation, well placement, permeability prediction, and evaluating remediation strategies.