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近年来 ,中国地震预报学者开始关注井水位的年变异常及其中短期预测意义问题 ,但井水位年变异常判别采用动态图像的定性对比方法 ,表现出一定的随意性。针对这种现状 ,文中引进概率论与数理统计中的随机过程理论与时间序列分析技术 (盛骤等 ,1989) ,提出了“井水位动态年周期法”与“相对时段速率比较法” ,解决了井水位年变异常的定量识别方法 ,并应用到天津井网 2 1口井的观测数据 (1985年以来 )分析中 ,证明了该方法的可行性与有效性。分析结果表明 ,天津井网中有 7口井在首都圈邻区 4次中强 (MS≥ 5 .8)地震之前 ,表现出 17井次的井水位年变异常 ,且多在震前 1.5~6个月内出现 ,从而再次证明了井水位年变异常具有一定的中短期预测意义 相似文献
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1995年Dickens对55.5Ma前古新世末增温事件进行了研究,提出天然气水合物作为全球环境变化重要因子的假说.认为古新世末增温事件溶解无机碳-2~-3‰的^13δC位移可以用水合物所含甲烷的释放与随后氧化成二氧化碳来解释.此后,地质历史演变中的天然气水合物演化研究蓬勃发展,本文总结古新世末增温事件、新元古代末期雪球事件、第四纪千年尺度事件等最新进展,为天然气水合物动态演化研究提供基础.开展天然气水合物-天然气体系动态演化过程数值模拟与特征分析,可望促进天然气水合物在全球变化与碳循环中作用的深入认识. 相似文献
157.
高孟潭 《地震学报(英文版)》2003,16(6):639-645
1 Background of the new national seismic zoning map The policy of seismic disaster mitigation in the Chinese mainland is prevention first. According to the law, the earthquake design for ordinary structures must fit the demand of national seismic zoning map. Seismic zoning map is the basis of the earthquake design (TANG, 1998; WU, et al, 1998). The seismic zoning map must be updated with the progress in methodology and accumula-tion of the data. There are three generations of national seis… 相似文献
158.
Decoupled seismic analysis of an earth dam 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
The seismic stability of an earth dam is evaluated via the decoupled displacement analysis using the accelerograms obtained by ground response analysis to compute the earthquake-induced displacements. The response analysis of the dam is carried out under both 1D and 2D conditions, incorporating the non-linear soil behaviour through the equivalent linear method. Ten artificial and five real accelerograms were used as input motions and four different depths were assumed for the bedrock.1D and 2D response analyses were in a fair agreement with the exception of the top third of the dam where only a 2D modelling of the problem could ensure that the acceleration field is properly described. The acceleration amplification ratio obtained in the 2D analyses was equal to about 2 in all the cases considered, consistently with data from real case histories.The maximum permanent displacements computed by the sliding block analysis were small, being less than 10% of the service freeboard; a satisfactory performance of the dam can then be envisaged for any of the seismic scenarios considered in the analyses. 相似文献
159.
Marijan Dravinski 《地震工程与结构动力学》2003,32(5):653-670
Scattering of plane harmonic waves by a three‐dimensional basin of arbitrary shape embedded within elastic half‐space is investigated by using an indirect boundary integral equation approach. The materials of the basin and the half‐space are assumed to be the most general anisotropic, homogeneous, linearly elastic solids without any material symmetry (i.e. triclinic). The unknown scattered waves are expressed in terms of three‐dimensional triclinic time harmonic full‐space Green's functions. The results have been tested by comparing the surface response of semi spherical isotropic and transversely isotropic basins for which the numerical solutions are available. Surface displacements are presented for a semicircular basin subjected to a vertical incident plane harmonic pseudo‐P‐, SV‐, or SH‐wave. These results are compared with the motion obtained for the corresponding equivalent isotropic models. The results show that presence of the basin may cause significant amplification of ground motion when compared to the free‐field displacements. The peak amplitude of the predominant component of surface motion is smaller for the anisotropic basin than for the corresponding isotropic one. Anisotropic response may be asymmetric even for symmetric geometry and incidence. Anisotropic surface displacement generally includes all three components of motion which may not be the case for the isotropic results. Furthermore, anisotropic response strongly depends upon the nature of the incident wave, degree of material anisotropy and the azimuthal orientation of the observation station. These results clearly demonstrate the importance of anisotropy in amplification of surface ground motion. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
160.
The non‐linear analysis of single‐degree‐of‐freedom (SDOF) systems provides the essential background information for both strength‐based design and displacement‐based evaluation/design methodologies through the development of the inelastic response spectra. The recursive solution procedure called the piecewise exact method, which is efficiently used for the response analysis of linear SDOF systems, is re‐formulated in this paper in a unified format to analyse the non‐linear SDOF systems with multi‐linear hysteresis models. The unified formulation is also capable of handling the P‐delta effect, which generally involves the negative post‐yield stiffness of the hysteresis loops. The attractiveness of the method lies in the fact that it provides the exact solution when the loading time history is composed of piecewise linear segments, a condition that is perfectly satisfied for the earthquake excitation. Based on simple recursive relationships given for positive, negative and zero effective stiffnesses, the unified form of the piecewise exact method proves to be an extremely powerful and probably the best tool for the SDOF inelastic time‐history and response spectrum analysis including the P‐delta effect. A number of examples are presented to demonstrate the implementation of the method. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献