山西省水化正常动态和地震的关系

使用《地震分析预报方法指南——水文地球化学方法》软件系统,对山西省多年来的水化资料进行了处理分析,给出各台站水氡的正常年动态变化;对两次大同地震前CO_2及He的前兆异常进行了总结,并提出了判断异常前兆的标志.     

能源基地晋陕蒙接壤地区地质环境质量定量研究

本文基于地质环境是由诸多因素有机组合而成,其质量也是各因素质量的复杂组合,是一种模糊现象,难以精确评价,但又存在明显差异的认识,采用模糊数学理论,即以环境地质亚区为单元,考虑多因素的综合影响。采用数量化的动态聚类法,对晋陕蒙接壤地区地质环境质量进行了评价:包括自然条件下地质环境质量评价和煤炭、水资源开发后地质环境质量的相对变化评价。     

Numerical simulation of dynamic process of the Tangshan earthquake

In this paper, the new LDDA (Lagrangian Discontinuous Deformation Analysis) method is used in modeling the dynamic process of the MS=7.8 Tangshan earthquake on July 28, 1976 and obtain directly the dynamic and quasi-static dislocations, shear stress drops, fracture velocities of the Tangshan earthquake fault. The simulation shows that the slip history at each point of the fault is different. The displacement vectors at the concave side of the fault is greater than that of the convex side of the fault. The "over shoot" of the fault slip is greatest at the middle part of the fault and attenuates to its ends. The rupture velocities of the fault from the epicenter towards south-west and towards north-east are 3.08 m/s and 1.18 m/s, respectively, the average one is 2.13 m/s. The maximum dynamic and quasi-static dislocations are 7.1 m and 6.2 m respectively, the average quasi-static one on the fault is 4.5 m. The maximum dynamic and quasi-static shear stress drops are 8.1 MPa and 5.4 MPa, respectively, the average quasi-static shear stress drop is 3.9 MPa.We found that the rupture velocities and shear stress are related to the initial stress states of the fault.     

A dynamic network model for two‐phase immiscible flow

A dynamic pore‐scale network model is formulated for two‐phase immiscible flow. Interfaces are tracked through the pore throats using a modified Poiseuille equation, whereas special displacement rules are used at the pore bodies. The model allows interfaces to move over several pore‐lengths within a time step. Initial computational results are presented for a drainage experiment to demonstrate some of the features of the model. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Approaches to analyse and model changes in impacts: reply to discussions of “How to improve attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts”*

ABSTRACT

We thank the authors, Brunella Bonaccorso and Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen for their constructive contributions to the discussion about the attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts. We appreciate that they support our opinion, but in particular their additional new ideas on how to better understand changes in impacts. It is great that they challenge us to think a step further on how to foster the collection of long time series of data and how to use these to model and project changes. Here, we elaborate on the possibility to collect time series of data on hazard, exposure, vulnerability and impacts and how these could be used to improve e.g. socio-hydrological models for the development of future risk scenarios.     

河北省雷电灾害事件特征分析

为了解河北省雷电灾害事件的时空分布、行业分布、经济损失及人员伤亡等,对2006—2017年(不包括2013、2016年)河北省雷电灾害事件资料进行统计分析。结果表明:河北省近10 a雷电灾害事件呈逐年波动递减的趋势,主要发生在6—8月,占全年雷电灾害事件总数的81.34%,唐山、保定和石家庄市为雷电灾害事件的高发区。雷电灾害事件最为严重的是电力行业达382起,人员伤亡事故主要发生在乡村。     

The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature in South Korea using dynamic linear models

The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature from 00 h out to 45 h in South Korea(38 stations) is performed using the DLM (dynamic linear model) in order to eliminate the systematic error of numerical model forecasts. Numerical model forecasts and observations are used as input values of the DLM. According to the comparison of the DLM forecasts to the KFM (Kalman filter model) forecasts with RMSE and bias, the DLM is useful to improve the accuracy of prediction.     

四种计算地震反应数值方法的比较研究

本文在简要总结了计算单自由度系统地震反应频域方法和时域方法的特点之后,按照统一的递归公式,系统地对计算单自由度体系的四种时域方法即中心差分方法、Newmark方法、Z变换方法、Duhamel逐步积分法进行了对比研究。通过递归系数b1和b2的不变性、传递函数的低频约束条件和相位特性以及数值分析等几个方面说明了上述方法各自的优缺点、相对精度和适用的范围。根据动力平衡方程的算子不变性,研究了上述方法的共性特征,揭示了相对位移、相对速度、相对加速度递归公式的内在联系,这表明只要知道相对位移的递归公式,相对速度、相对加速度的递归公式也就随之确定,在此基础上推荐了一套计算单自由度系统相对位移、相对速度、相对加速度地震反应的递归公式。     

云南水汞在连发地震前短临异常及震后变化特征

通过对1995年5月6日—1996年2月3日发生在云南境内及其中缅边境一带的4组5次M≥6．0级强震的研究,发现水汞在强震连发期都出现短临异常及震后变化;与2001年云南省内6组7次5．0—5．9级中强地震短临异常及震后变化进行比较,结果表明强震连发期水汞的短临异常特征表现为异常台站多、异常幅度大、异常范围广和多台站水汞在异常中发震。中强震连发期水汞的短临异常特征与此相反。表现为异常台站少、异常幅度小、异常范围小和多台站水汞在异常结束后发震。     

Dynamic stress concentration and scattering of SH-wave by interface elliptic cylindrical cavity

In this paper, the dynamic stress concentration and scattering of SH-waves by bi-naterial structures that possess an interface elliptic cavity are investigated. First, by using the complex function method, the Green‘s function is constructed. This yields the solution of the displacement field for an elastic half space with a semi-elliptic canyon impacted by an anti-plane harmonic line source loading on the horizontal surface. Then, the problem is divided into an upper and lower half space along the horizontal interface, regarded as a harmony model. In order to satisfythe integral continuity condition,the unknown anti-plane forces are applied to the interface. The integral equations with unknown forces can be established through the continuity condition, and after transformation, the algebraic equations are solved numerically. Finally, the distribution of the dynamic stress concentration factor (DSCF) around the elliptic cavity is given and the effect of different parameters on DSCF is discussed.