洞庭湖流域气候变化特征(1961-2003年)

以22个气象站1961-2003年的气象观测数据为基础,对洞庭湖流域的气温、降水和参照蒸散量进行趋势与突变分析．从1970年开始,洞庭湖流域经历了一个缓慢而稳定的增温过程,1990s发生突变进入快速增温时期;尤其是是在春、冬季节,这种突变式的增温特征非常显著;秋季持续而稳定增温,而夏季气温并无明显变化．进入1990s,洞庭湖流域降水有明显增多,尤其是夏季降水突变式增加;与此同时,夏季暴雨频率也突变式增大,但是暴雨强度并无明显变化．1900s迄今,参照蒸散量持续而稳定的减少,夏季减少量尤为显著．全球变暖的区域响应,驱动洞庭湖流域水循环速度加快,夏季降水增多,而蒸发能力减弱,这是1990s洞庭湖流域洪水频发的主要气候因子．     

Variation characteristics of evaporation in the Gulang River Basin during 1959-2013

Based on monthly evaporation of two meteorological stations in the Gulang River Basin of China, the inter-annual variation of evaporation during 1959-2013 were analyzed using Mann-Kendall and wavelet analysis. The results demonstrated that the annual evaporation show a fluctuating increase over the past 50 years approximately, with an average increase rate of 4.26 mm per decade. The overall trend was decrease-increase-decrease. According to the cumulative anomaly curve,the turning point of the annual evaporation occurred in 1979, in which the evaporation increased in the early stage and decreased in the later stage. Meanwhile, the seasonal variation of the evaporation shows that it decreased in Spring and Autumn, and increased in Summer and Winter, especially obvious for the later. The evaporation abruptly changed in Spring and Summer in 2008 and in Winter in 1994. In addition, all evaporation increased after the changes. However,the evaporation in Autumn abruptly changed in 1986 and 1999, which show a trend of increase-decrease-increase.Wavelet analysis shows that evaporation in Summer and wet season would decrease in the next few years, and in the other seasons would increase. Based on the aforementioned analysis, it can be concluded that increased evaporation is mainly induced by increase of evaporation in dry season, especially in Winter, and this trend to be continued in the future for the Gulang River Basin.     

Tracking climate change in Central Asia through temperature and precipitation extremes

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Under the impacts of climate change and human activities, great uncertainties still exist in the response of climate extremes, especially in Central Asia (CA). In...     

典型农牧交错区LUCC及农牧交替演化过程分析——以内蒙古赤峰市为例

以内蒙古赤峰市为例,利用TM影像解译得到的三期土地利用数据(1988、1995、2000年)研究20世纪80年代以来,典型农牧交错区的LUCC演化过程,主要采用土地利用开发度、耗减度、信息熵、空间转移矩阵等方法分析了不同阶段农牧交替演化的时空特征。结果表明:(1)草地、耕地、林地为研究区主要的土地利用方式,整个研究时段内,耕地开垦和草地减少是主导LUCC过程。耕地开垦面积达2424.12km²,草地减少1959.65km²。从前后两个时期来看,前期(1988-1995年)耕地和草地变化更为剧烈,耕地以增为主,草地以减为主;后期(1995-2000年)草地转出速度放缓,但耕地开垦速度仍相对较快,林地转出速度加快;(2)土地流转过程以农牧交替演化为主,前期草地与耕地的交替转化剧烈,草地开垦面积达到2 040.50km²,耕地撂荒还草634.75km²,耕地开垦主要集中在敖汉旗的北部;后期LUCC过程放缓,草地转耕地面积为828.50km²,主要发生在敖汉旗以及林西县北部地区等区域,伴随着一定程度的弃耕;(3)三个时期土地利用结构信息熵分别为1.290、1.301、1.304,赤峰市土地利用系统有序程度在降低。农牧交错演化过程的分析,为研究该地区人类-环境耦合系统的变化和机制提供了重要依据。     

温度骤降对大黄鱼Larimichthys crocea鱼卵与仔鱼的影响

滨海电厂温排水停止排放以及季节更替、寒潮来袭等现象会引起海水温度降低,从而对鱼类等变温生物产生冷冲击效应。本研究通过模拟水温骤降情形,以孵化率、死亡率、畸形率等为指标,探讨了温度骤降对大黄鱼早期发育阶段(鱼卵和仔鱼)的冷冲击作用。研究发现,大黄鱼仔鱼(3日龄)对温度骤降的敏感性略高于鱼卵。在大黄鱼鱼卵和仔鱼的适温范围内,当水温由22 ℃骤降至19 ℃或16 ℃时,鱼卵的孵化率和死亡率无明显变化,而胚胎发育和仔鱼的生长发育均减缓,仔鱼的死亡率提高;水温超出适温范围,由22 ℃骤降至13 ℃或10 ℃时,对鱼卵和仔鱼造成致命的冷冲击伤害,48 h累积死亡率分别为84.6%~100%和72.1%~98.2%。由此推测:当水温骤降超出适温范围后,大黄鱼的早期发育阶段遭受致命的冷冲击伤害,从而影响种群补充和年龄结构。     

固体矿产储量估算系统的研究与实现

通过对固体矿产储量估算过程的详细调研,对储量估算过程中的单工程圈定算法、矿体剖面连接以及传统的储量估算方法中的平行剖面法和地质块段法做了详细研究,并针对储量计算的可视化及交互技术进行了研究,实现了一种基于Windows操作系统、MapGIS地理信息系统平台的固体矿产储量估算原型系统,实现了对固体矿产勘查数据的有效存储、管理、可视化分析及评价。     

Abrupt behaviours of streamflow and sediment load variations of the Yangtze River basin,China

Monthly sediment load and streamflow series spanning 1963–2004 from four hydrological stations situation in the main stem of the Yangtze River, China, are analysed using scanning t‐test and the simple two‐phase linear regression scheme. Results indicate significant changes in the sediment load and streamflow from the upper reach to the lower reach of the Yangtze River. Relatively consistent positive coherency relations can be detected between streamflow and sediment load in the upper reach and negative coherency in the middle and lower reaches. Interestingly, negative coherency is found mainly for larger time scales. Changes in sediment load are the result mainly of human influence; specifically, the construction of water reservoirs may be the major cause of negative coherency. Accentuating the human influence from the upper to the lower reach results in inconsistent correlations between sediment load and streamflow. Decreasing sediment load being observed in recent years has the potential to alter the topographical properties of the river channel and the consequent development and recession of the Yangtze Delta. Results of this study are of practical significance for river channel management and evaluation of the influence of human activities on the hydrological regimes of large rivers. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A STUDY ON THE VARIATIONS OF CIRCULATION PATTERN IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN CHINA FOR THE RECENT 100 YEARS

The time series of annual frequency of the circulation patterns W,C,E in the Northern Hemisphere and annual mean temperature of Beijing (T_B),Shanghai (T_S) and the whole country (T_C) in the period 1891-1990 are expanded as a long-term tendency,a periodic function and a random function.The coherence between circulation and temperature is calculated and analyzed.The abrupt change of circulation and temperature in the last 100 years is revealed with the methods of the accumulated anomalous curves,the signal/noise ratio as well as the Mann-Kendall test.The correlations between anomalous circulation and climate are discussed with some explanations.     

地洼学说的理论结构和发展纲领

地洼学说(活化区理论)自1956年诞生以来,经受过35年的实践检验,已发展成为包括五个组成部分和两个衍生学科的理论体系。它的理论结构是以第一个组成部分,即大陆地壳中发生于地台阶段之后,与地槽区不同特征的一种新型活动区—活化区即地洼区概念为内核,保护层为其余的组成部分和衍生学科,即地壳动定转化递进说、递进(地洼)成矿理论、壳体概念和地幔蠕动热能聚散交替假说,以及构造地球化学和成矿构造学。 地洼学说是属于作者建立的“历史—因果论大地构造学”范畴,它的发展纲领应是运用“历史—动力综合分析法”的研究方法,贯彻理论实践并重和切合生产需要的学术路线,采用充实和加固内核以及调整某些保护层的方式,按照自我完善与学百家之长相结合的原则,研究领域包括学说本身的进一步发展和运用它以解决实际问题。 内核的充实和加固包括两个方面;(1)理论方面的研究,例如地洼区的鉴别依据、类型划分、形成时代、分布地区、地壳运动等方面的问题。(2)实用方面的研究,例如运用区域地质、成矿规律及找矿预测、地热、水文地质、地貌、新构造等方面的问题。     

莱州湾地区500年来旱涝灾害指数系列的建立

作者根据《山东省历代自然灾害志》的记载，应用Foxpro提供的软件，建立了莱州湾地区500年来旱涝灾害的汉字库，并通过一系列转换，将其转为数字库；将旱涝灾情的文字记我转换为区域旱涝指数，并与现代降水资料相对接，建立了1470－1990年共521年的历年逐季旱涝灾害指数序列，为分析该地区旱涝灾害发生规律和预测提供了依据。