地震台站台基噪声功率谱概率密度函数Matlab实现

选取2015年四川数字测震台网中筠连和华蓥山地震台记录的垂直分向连续波形数据,利用Matlab软件,计算地震台站台基噪声功率谱概率密度函数,分析地震台站环境噪声特征。结果表明,台站环境噪声功率谱密度概率密度分布对地震事件波形（体波、面波）、人为噪声（台站周围人为活动、车辆及机器噪声等高频干扰）、系统瞬变（数据丢失、地震计小故障）以及仪器标定信号等反映较好。使用台基噪声功率谱概率密度函数方法,有利于监测地震台站数据记录,提高观测数据质量。     

Dynamic behavior of a smart device on a surface subjected to earthquake motion

This paper leverages concepts from an existing model to simulate the planar response of a smart device subjected to friction forces induced by an underlying moving plane. An interpolation technique is used to enhance detection of transition points (between sticking and sliding states), which must be accurately identified because of the frequency of their occurrence during seismic motion. The behavior of a smart device on an unconstrained table or desk, which is itself on a moving floor, is introduced and discussed. After validation of the results using experimental data, the revised model is used to study the sliding potential of smart devices on a surface during strong seismic events. Sliding spectra associated with selected ground motions are presented and extended to incorporate the effect of vertical accelerations with the purpose of assessing their influence. It is shown that vertical accelerations have a minimal effect on the sliding behavior of smart devices and that a “probability of exceeding the slip limit” curve can be developed to relate the probability of sticking to a demand parameter that represents the ground motion.     

Analysis of meteorological drought variability in Niger and its connection with climate indices

Based on a three-month-scale standardized precipitation index (SPI-3) computed from the available rainfall data of 13 stations of Niger, meteorological drought trends, periodicities and the relationships with 10 oceanic–atmospheric variables were analysed using the Mann-Kendall test, continuous wavelet transform and cross-wavelet analysis, respectively. The results revealed a significant (p < 5%) increase in drought at five of the 13 stations. A common dominant drought periodicity of 2 years was found at all of the stations, whereas significant periodicities varied from 2 to 32 years at six stations. Among the considered climate indices, South Atlantic sea-surface temperature, Southern Oscillation Index, sea-level pressure, geopotential height and relative humidity from the Atlantic basin oscillated in anti-phase relative to the SPI-3 at an inter-annual to decadal time scale from 1960 to 1990. In this period, relative humidity from the Mediterranean basin and zonal wind oscillated in phase with the drought index.     

川滇菱形块体东边界库仑应力演化及强震发生概率估算

本研究基于分层黏弹介质模型,考虑强震或大地震同震位错、震后黏滞松弛及主断层段震间构造应力加载三方面效应,给出1480年以来,川滇菱形块体东边界鲜水河断裂带、安宁河断裂带、则木河断裂带和小江断裂带共20个断层段由三方面效应引起的累积库仑应力变化随时间的演化,分析强震间相互作用和强震发生的应力累积背景,定性分析各断层段的地震危险性.同时,分别采用现今台网地震目录和川滇菱形块体东边界各断层段强震复发间隔两种资料,定量计算2030年各断层段的强震发生概率;并基于摩擦本构理论,将周边强震引起的库仑应力变化量作为应力扰动,修正强震发生概率的计算结果.各断层段累积库仑应力演化的结果表明,鲜水河断裂带中部八美段、色拉哈段及南部磨西段、安宁河断裂带冕宁-西昌段、小江断裂带北部巧家-东川段和南部建水段的累积库仑应力显著增加.修正的强震发生概率计算结果显示,鲜水河断裂带中部八美-色拉哈-康定一带、安宁河断裂带冕宁-西昌段、小江断裂带南部华宁-建水一带强震发生概率较高,地震危险性值得关注.本研究基于库仑应力演化计算定性分析强震危险性的同时,基于摩擦本构律理论,结合地震引起的应力扰动和强震发生背景,定量计算修正的强震发生概率,为川滇菱形块体东边界强震危险地点及中长期发震紧迫程度判定提供方法和依据.     

The effect of amplitude scaling limits on conditional spectrum-based ground motion selection

Amplitude scaling is commonly used to select ground motions matching a target response spectrum. In this paper, the effect of scaling limits on ground motion selection, based on the conditional spectrum framework, is investigated. Target spectra are computed for four probabilistic seismic hazard cases in Western United States, and 16 ground motion suites are selected using different scaling limits (ie, 2, 5, 10, and 15). Comparison of spectral acceleration distributions of the selected ground motion suites demonstrates that the use of a scaling limit of 2 yields a relatively poor representation of the target spectra, because of the small limit leading to an insufficient number of available ground motions. It is also shown that increasing scaling limit results in selected ground motions with generally increased distributions of Arias intensity and significant duration Ds_5-75, implying that scaling limit consideration can significantly influence the cumulative and duration characteristics of selected ground motions. The ground motion suites selected are then used as input for slope displacement and structural dynamic analyses. Comparative results demonstrate that the consideration of scaling limits in ground motion selection has a notable influence on the distribution of the engineering demand parameters calculated (ie, slope displacement and interstory drift ratio). Finally, based on extensive analyses, a scaling limit range of 3 to 5 is recommended for general use when selecting ground motion records from the NGA-West2 database.     

鄱阳湖国家级自然保护区湿地植被的干旱响应及影响因素

近年来鄱阳湖干旱事件频发,干旱导致的气象水文要素变化直接影响植被生长状况,尤其是对于地上植被生物量的影响极为显著.研究鄱阳湖干旱事件对于湿地植被的影响,对于保护鸟类栖息地,认识湿地生态功能和结构的变化具有重要的现实意义.利用长期卫星遥感数据,结合植被生物量野外调查,以2003和2006年极端干旱年份为出发点,从湿地植被面积、生物量密度和总生物量的角度分析了鄱阳湖湿地植被生物量对于极端干旱的响应.研究表明:湿地植被面积、生物量密度以及总生物量均呈现双峰分布特征,在4和11月分别达到上、下半年的峰值.2003年植被生物量与多年均值一致,2006年下半年植被面积、生物量密度以及总生物量均明显超出多年均值.影响湿地植被面积的主要因素为鄱阳湖水位变化;而影响植被生物量密度的主要因素为气温和水位,退水时间提前对于生物量密度影响最大;总生物量同时受到植被面积与植被生物量密度的综合影响,其中植被面积的影响更大,植被面积对于总生物量的影响在2006年表现得比2003年更加显著.总之,2006年湿地植被对水文干旱的响应要比气象干旱强烈得多.     

Reliability‐based control algorithms for nonlinear hysteretic systems based on enhanced stochastic averaging of energy envelope

Current reliability‐based control techniques have been successfully applied to linear systems; however, incorporation of stochastic nonlinear behavior of systems in such control designs remains a challenge. This paper presents two reliability‐based control algorithms that minimize failure probabilities of nonlinear hysteretic systems subjected to stochastic excitations. The proposed methods include constrained reliability‐based control (CRC) and unconstrained reliability‐based control (URC) algorithms. Accurate probabilistic estimates of nonlinear system responses to stochastic excitations are derived analytically using enhanced stochastic averaging of energy envelope proposed previously by the authors. Convolving these demand estimates with capacity models yields the reliability of nonlinear systems in the control design process. The CRC design employs the first‐level and second‐level optimizations sequentially where the first‐level optimization solves the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation and the second‐level optimization searches for optimal objective function parameters to minimize the probability of failure. In the URC design, a single optimization minimizes the probability of failure by directly searching for the optimal control gain. Application of the proposed control algorithms to a building on nonlinear foundation has shown noticeable improvements in system performance under various stochastic excitations. The URC design appears to be the most optimal method as it reduced the probability of slight damage to 8.7%, compared with 11.6% and 19.2% for the case of CRC and a stochastic linear quadratic regulator, respectively. Under the Kobe ground motion, the normalized peak drift displacement with respect to stochastic linear quadratic regulator is reduced to 0.78 and 0.81 for the URC and CRC cases, respectively, at comparable control force levels. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Combined effect of climate change and human activities on the hydrological processes of an urban river: case study of the Xiaoqing River,China

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study is to reveal statistical characteristics and exceedance probability of discharge under the combined effect of climate change and human activities. The study is conducted in the Xiaoqing River in Jinan, China, based on data of discharge, land-use types and precipitation from the period 1970–2016. A multivariate joint probability distribution of the data is established to test the univariable, bivariable and trivariable change points. These are then used to calculate and analyse the risk probability of discharge exceeding the specific values under different conditions of precipitation and land-use type. The results show that the change point calculated by trivariate joint distribution can reduce the disturbance of the change point obtained with the univariable or bivariable approach and reflect the changes of various factors in the hydrological processes more objectively. When the land-use type is taken into consideration, the trivariate distribution can reflect the variation of hydrological processes more reasonably.     

Future hydro-meteorological drought of the Johor River Basin,Malaysia, based on CORDEX-SEA projections

Water scarcity issues in the Johor River Basin (JRB) could affect the populations of Malaysia and Singapore. This study provides an overview of future hydro-meteorological droughts using climate projections from an ensemble of four Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments – Southeast Asia (CORDEX-SEA) domain outputs under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 periods. The climate projections were bias corrected using the quantile mapping approach before being incorporated into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) were used to examine the meteorological and hydrological droughts, respectively. Overall, future annual precipitation, streamflow, and maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to change by about ?44.2 to 24.3%, ?88.7 to 42.2%, 0.8 to 3.7ºC and 0.7 to 4.7ºC, respectively. The results show that the JRB is likely to receive more frequent meteorological droughts in the future.     

钢筋混凝土框架结构震后可存活概率预测方法研究

针对当前钢筋混凝土震后存活预测相关方法存在预测值与实际值拟合度低的问题,提出基于有限元的钢筋混凝土框架结构震后可存活概率预测方法。利用混凝土本构模型关联数值和钢筋本构模型数值计算,实现钢筋混凝土框架材料本构模型关联数值分析。结合建筑和结构施工图实现钢筋混凝土有限元模拟,将钢筋混凝土框架有限元模型的最大竖向荷载作为结构整体构造竖向极限承载力,并引入随机Pushdown方法及随机竖向IDA法得到钢筋混凝土框架震后可存活概率。经实验证明,将有限元应用至钢筋混凝土框架结构震后可存活概率预测中切实可行;预测值与实际值拟合度高于目前常用方法。所提方法的性能完善,可为该领域发展提供可借鉴的信息。