Crustal‐mantle lithosphere decoupling as a control on Variscan metamorphism in the Eastern Alps

Mica schists of the Variscan Austroalpine Ötztal basement (Eastern Alps) contain synkinematically grown garnet porphyroblasts showing three zones with complex inclusion trails. Staurolite, kyanite and sillimanite grew over the main schistosity that envelops the garnet porphyroblasts. The mineral‐forming reaction sequences modelled in the MnKFMASH and KFMASH systems show that garnet of zone 1 grew at approximately 1300 MPa, whereas zone 2 and zone 3 grew during substantial decompression and partial thermal relaxation. For the growth of staurolite, kyanite and sillimanite, this modelling shows that thermal relaxation continued after decompression under only slightly changing pressure conditions, until the peak temperature conditions of Variscan metamorphism were reached. The result of this modelling is a pressure‐temperature‐time (P–T–t) heating path that is consistent with a tectonic interpretation implying thickening of the lithosphere during continental collision and subsequent mantle ‐ crustal lithosphere decoupling plus extension. A direct implication of this model is that the heat budget of Variscan metamorphism was controlled by the convective replacement of the thickened lithospheric root with asthenospheric material.     

Study of discontinuities in hydrological data using catastrophe theory

Abstract

Modelling and prediction of hydrological processes (e.g. rainfall–runoff) can be influenced by discontinuities in observed data, and one particular case may arise when the time scale (i.e. resolution) is coarse (e.g. monthly). This study investigates the application of catastrophe theory to examine its suitability to identify possible discontinuities in the rainfall–runoff process. A stochastic cusp catastrophe model is used to study possible discontinuities in the monthly rainfall–runoff process at the Aji River basin in Azerbaijan, Iran. Monthly-averaged rainfall and flow data observed over a period of 20 years (1981–2000) are analysed using the Cuspfit program. In this model, rainfall serves as a control variable and runoff as a behavioural variable. The performance of this model is evaluated using four measures: correlation coefficient, log-likelihood, Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The results indicate the presence of discontinuities in the rainfall–runoff process, with a significant sudden jump in flow (cusp signal) when rainfall reaches a threshold value. The performance of the model is also found to be better than that of linear and logistic models. The present results, though preliminary, are promising in the sense that catastrophe theory can play a possible role in the study of hydrological systems and processes, especially when the data are noisy.

Citation Ghorbani, M. A., Khatibi, R., Sivakumar, B. & Cobb, L. (2010) Study of discontinuities in hydrological data using catastrophe theory. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(7), 1137–1151.     

A spatially distributed Clark’s unit hydrograph based hybrid hydrologic model (Distributed-Clark)

ABSTRACT

A hybrid hydrologic model (Distributed-Clark), which is a lumped conceptual and distributed feature model, was developed based on the combined concept of Clark’s unit hydrograph and its spatial decomposition methods, incorporating refined spatially variable flow dynamics to implement hydrological simulation for spatially distributed rainfall–runoff flow. In Distributed-Clark, the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number method is utilized to estimate spatially distributed runoff depth and a set of separated unit hydrographs is used for runoff routing to obtain a direct runoff flow hydrograph. Case studies (four watersheds in the central part of the USA) using spatially distributed (Thiessen polygon-based) rainfall data of storm events were used to evaluate the model performance. Results demonstrate relatively good fit to observed streamflow, with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (E_NS) of 0.84 and coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.86, as well as a better fit in comparison with outputs of spatially averaged rainfall data simulations for two models including HEC-HMS.     

Hydrological extremes in a southwestern Ontario river basin under future climate conditions/Extrêmes hydrologiques dans un basin versant du sud-ouest de l'Ontario sous conditions climatiques futures

Abstract

The global climate change may have serious impacts on the frequency, magnitude, location and duration of hydrological extremes. Changed hydrological extremes will have important implications on the design of future hydraulic structures, flood-plain development, and water resource management. This study assesses the potential impact of a changed climate on the timing and magnitude of hydrological extremes in a densely populated and urbanized river basin in southwestern Ontario, Canada. An ensemble of future climate scenarios is developed using a weather generating algorithm, linked with GCM outputs. These climate scenarios are then transformed into basin runoff by a semi-distributed hydrological model of the study area. The results show that future maximum river flows in the study area will be less extreme and more variable in terms of magnitude, and more irregular in terms of seasonal occurrence, than they are at present. Low flows may become less extreme and variable in terms of magnitude, and more irregular in terms of seasonal occurrence. According to the evaluated scenarios, climate change may have favourable impacts on the distribution of hydrological extremes in the study area.     

Impacts anthropiques sur les termes du bilan hydrologique d’un aquifère alluvial dans le Nordeste semi-aride,Brésil / Human impacts on components of hydrological balance in an alluvial aquifer in the semiarid Northeast,Brazil

Abstract

Abstract The exploitation of an alluvial aquifer (2 × 10⁶ m³) has been developed since 1998 in the Valley of Forquilha (Quixeramobim, State of Ceará). For this purpose, 165 wells were drilled along the 23 km of the valley that supplies 500 families and their farms. Monthly monitoring of piezometric and electrical conductivity (2000–2003) show seasonal variations in the water volume (35%) and in the mean value of the conductivity (800–1200 µS cm^-1). A conceptual hydrogeological model was developed. Analysis of the data and simulations highlight that the recharge of the aquifer is mainly due to infiltration from the river in the rainy season, which is of the order of 1% of the rain over the catchment area (195 km²). The abstractions increase the recharge between 30 and 60%. The model makes it possible to propose scenarios of sustainable exploitation of the water resource in the catchment. For the period between 1970 and 1988, other simulations show that it would have been possible to maintain irrigated cultures on 75 ha for 80% of the time. During the remaining 20%, the water level is too low, and farmers would have to reduce the irrigated area.     

Geospatially based distributed rainfall‐runoff modelling for simulation of internal and outlet responses in a semi‐forested lower Himalayan watershed

This study presents a Geographic Information System (GIS)‐based distributed rainfall‐runoff model for simulating surface flows in small to large watersheds during isolated storm events. The model takes into account the amount of interception storage to be filled using a modified Merriam ( 1960 ) approach before estimating infiltration by the Smith and Parlange ( 1978 ) method. The mechanics of overland and channel flow are modelled by the kinematic wave approximation of the Saint Venant equations which are then numerically solved by the weighted four‐point implicit finite difference method. In this modelling the watershed was discretized into overland planes and channels using the algorithms proposed by Garbrecht and Martz ( 1999 ). The model code was first validated by comparing the model output with an analytical solution for a hypothetical plane. Then the model was tested in a medium‐sized semi‐forested watershed of Pathri Rao located in the Shivalik ranges of the Garhwal Himalayas, India. Initially, a local sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the parameters to which the model outputs like runoff volume, peak flow and time to peak flow are sensitive. Before going for model validation, calibration was performed using the Ordered‐Physics‐based Parameter Adjustment (OPPA) method. The proposed Physically Based Distributed (PBD) model was then evaluated both at the watershed outlet as well as at the internal gauging station, making this study a first of its kind in Indian watersheds. The results of performance evaluation indicate that the model has simulated the runoff hydrographs reasonably well within the watershed as well as at the watershed outlet with the same set of calibrated parameters. The model also simulates, realistically, the temporal variation of the spatial distribution of runoff over the watershed and the same has been illustrated graphically. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The critical state behaviour of barodesy compared with the Matsuoka–Nakai failure criterion

Barodesy is a new approach to constitutive modelling of soil. It is based on Goldscheider's principles and maps stretching directions onto corresponding stress directions with the help of a simple exponential function. This mapping also determines a critical state surface in principal stress space. The article investigates this surface and relates it to the well‐known Matsuoka–Nakai failure criterion. It turns out that the difference between these two surfaces is negligible for practical applications. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Chloride transfer in cement‐based materials. Part 1. Theoretical basis and modelling

In this first part of the work, we develop macroscopic models for migration and diffusion–migration of ionic species in saturated porous media, based on periodic homogenization. The prior application is chloride transport in cementitious materials. The dimensional analysis of Nernst–Planck equation lets appear to dimensionless numbers characterizing the ionic transfer in the porous medium. Using experimental data obtained from electrodiffusion tests on cement‐based materials (Part II), these dimensionless numbers are linked to the perturbation parameter ?. For a strong imposed electrical field, the asymptotic expansion of Nernst–Planck equation leads to a macroscopic model where the migration is predominant. For a weak imposed electrical field or in natural diffusion, we obtain a macroscopic model coupling diffusion and migration at the same order. In both models, the expression of the homogenized diffusion tensor is identical and only involves the geometric properties of the material microstructure. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Phase equilibria constraints on melting of stromatic migmatites from Ronda (S. Spain): insights on the formation of peritectic garnet

Stromatic metatexites occurring structurally below the contact with the Ronda peridotite (Ojén nappe, Betic Cordillera, S Spain) are characterized by the mineral assemblage Qtz+Pl+Kfs+Bt+Sil+Grt+Ap+Gr+Ilm. Garnet occurs in low modal amount (2–5 vol.%). Very rare muscovite is present as armoured inclusions, indicating prograde exhaustion. Microstructural evidence of melting in the migmatites includes pseudomorphs after melt films and nanogranite and glassy inclusions hosted in garnet cores. The latter microstructure demonstrates that garnet crystallized in the presence of melt. Re‐melted nanogranites and preserved glassy inclusions show leucogranitic compositions. Phase equilibria modelling of the stromatic migmatite in the MnO–Na₂O–CaO–K₂O–FeO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂–H₂–O₂–C (MnNCaKFMASHOC) system with graphite‐saturated fluid shows P–T conditions of equilibration of 4.5–5 kbar, 660–700 °C. These results are consistent with the complete experimental re‐melting of nanogranites at 700 °C and indicate that nanogranites represent the anatectic melt generated immediately after entering supersolidus conditions. The P–T estimate for garnet and melt development does not, however, overlap with the low‐temperature tip of the pure melt field in the phase diagram calculated for the composition of preserved glassy inclusions in garnet in the Na₂O–CaO–K₂O–FeO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂–H₂O (NCKFMASH) system. A comparison of measured melt compositions formed immediately beyond the solidus with results of phase equilibria modelling points to the systematic underestimation of FeO, MgO and CaO in the calculated melt. These discrepancies are present also when calculated melts are compared with low‐T natural and experimental melts from the literature. Under such conditions, the available melt model does not perform well. Given the presence of melt inclusions in garnet cores and the P–T estimates for their formation, we argue that small amounts (<5 vol.%) of peritectic garnet may grow at low temperatures (≤700 °C), as a result of continuous melting reactions consuming biotite.