Storm surges in the northern part of the Sea of Japan

All the available historic records of sea level and appropriate weather charts have been used to study storm surges in the northern part of the Sea of Japan. The generation of surges in this area was investigated by means of a two-dimensional numerical model. Computed sea levels were compared with hourly observed residual sea levels in De-Kastri. The agreement between computed and observed storm surges is quite satisfactory. The relative importance of various meteorological parameters and bottom topography in formation of the strong storm surge on 20–21 September 1975 was studied numerically.     

成矿过程流体地球化学模拟及其矿床学意义：以江西银山矿床为例

本文将银山成矿体系为富含Ｈ２Ｓ，ＣＯ２的ＮａＣｌ体系，对Ｃｕ，Ｐｂ，Ｚｎ，Ａｇ和Ａｕ等金属元素在该体系降温过程中的地球化学行为和银山矿床的成矿过程进行计算机数字模拟，并与沸腾降温体系进行对比，证明了成矿体系地球化学演化对金属元素的迁移与沉淀具有得要影响。成矿硫体地球化学模拟在矿床成因，深部成矿预测和区域成矿规律研究中具有重要意义。     

埋藏基岩地形对地震波动影响的模拟研究

本文以超声地震模型试验为基础,着重从地震波的强度方面来阐明埋藏基岩地形对地震波动的影响,提出了利用振动能量分析地震动问题的重要性,理论分析及实验结果表明,埋藏基岩地形对地震波动的影响表现为:一方面基岩面凹凸不平,致使基岩面上不同部位接收能量大小不同;另一方面,基岩的凹凸面对地震波产生汇聚与发散作用,这两方面共同作用的结果使得地表不同地点表现出不同的地震动强度。     

Parabolic density function in sedimentary basin modelling

For modelling sedimentary basins of large thickness from their gravity anomalies, the concept of parabolic density function which explains the variation of true density contrast of the sediments with depth in such basins is introduced inBott's (1960) procedure. The analytical expression the gravity anomaly of a two-dimensional vertical prism with parabolic density contrast needed to estimate the gravity effect of the basin in modelling procedure is derived in a closed form. Two profiles of gravity anomalies, one across San Jacinto Graben, California and the other across Tucson basin, Arizona where the density of sediments is found to vary with depth are interpreted.     

Quantifying the relative impact of hydrological and hydraulic modelling parameterizations on uncertainty of inundation maps

ABSTRACT

Flood risk management strongly relies on inundation models for river basin zoning in flood-prone and risk-free areas. Floodplain zoning is significantly affected by the diverse and concurrent uncertainties that characterize the modelling chain used for producing inundation maps. In order to quantify the relative impact of the uncertainties linked to a lumped hydrological (rainfall–runoff) model and a FLO-2D hydraulic model, a Monte Carlo procedure is proposed in this work. The hydrological uncertainty is associated with the design rainfall estimation method, while the hydraulic model uncertainty is associated with roughness parameterization. This uncertainty analysis is tested on the case study of the Marta coastal catchment in Italy, by comparing the different frequency, extent and depth of inundation simulations associated with varying rainfall forcing and/or hydraulic model roughness realizations. The results suggest a significant predominance of the hydrological uncertainty with respect to the hydraulic one on the overall uncertainty associated with the simulated inundation maps.     

Application of Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) at different temporal scales to reduce the uncertainty level in modelled river flows

ABSTRACT

In this study, the distributed catchment-scale model, DiCaSM, was applied on five catchments across the UK. Given its importance, river flow was selected to study the uncertainty in streamflow prediction using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology at different timescales (daily, monthly, seasonal and annual). The uncertainty analysis showed that the observed river flows were within the predicted bounds/envelope of 5% and 95% percentiles. These predicted river flow bounds contained most of the observed river flows, as expressed by the high containment ratio, CR. In addition to CR, other uncertainty indices – bandwidth B, relative bandwidth RB, degrees of asymmetry S and T, deviation amplitude D, relative deviation amplitude RD and the R factor – also indicated that the predicted river flows have acceptable uncertainty levels. The results show lower uncertainty in predicted river flows when increasing the timescale from daily to monthly to seasonal, with the lowest uncertainty associated with annual flows.     

Water balance components estimation under scenarios of land cover change in the Vea catchment,West Africa

ABSTRACT

The need for a detailed investigation of the Vea catchment water balance components cannot be overemphasized due to its accelerated land-cover dynamics and the associated impacts on the hydrological processes. This study assessed the possible consequences of land-use change scenarios (i.e. business as usual, BAU, and afforestation for the year 2025) compared to the 2016 baseline on the Vea catchment’s water balance components using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The data used include daily climate and discharge, soil and land use/land cover maps. The results indicate that the mean annual water yield may increase by 9.1% under the BAU scenario but decrease by 2.7% under the afforestation scenario; actual evapotranspiration would decrease under BAU but increase under afforestation; and groundwater recharge may increase under both scenarios but would be more pronounced under the afforestation scenario. These outcomes highlight the significance of land-cover dynamics in water resource management and planning at the catchment.