The sheltering effect of the Balearic Islands in the hindcast wave field

The sheltering effect of the Balearic Islands in the hindcast wave field was studied for typical Mediterranean wave situations of Llevant, Tramuntana and Mestral and for mild conditions such as the Garbí and Ponent winds. For this purpose, a third generation wave model was applied to the Mediterranean Sea and different patterns of the sheltered areas were found for the various representative situations depending on the wind variability and on the magnitude of the wind speed. From the analysis it was concluded that the sheltered zones created during storms generally persist for short periods of time of the order of 6 h, possibly reaching a maximum of 12 h. In contrast with earlier results obtained for swell dominated ocean areas, it was observed that in this area, due to the short fetches the sea states are mainly local wind seas and thus the wave field behind the islands depends on the local wind.     

pT-effects of Pleistocene glacial periods on permafrost,gas hydrate stability zones and reservoir of the Mittelplate oil field,northern Germany

During the past two million years low surface temperatures as well as episodically advancing ice sheets from Scandinavia acted on the subsurface pT-regime of northern Germany. Their likely effects on the petroleum system of Schleswig-Holstein were investigated. For the entire Quaternary mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) was reconstructed at a resolution of 1000 years by calibrating oxygen isotope records from ODP-site 659 to the climate of northern Germany of the past 120 kyr. The resulting MAGT trend served as input to an ice sheet model and a permafrost model along a 2D section crossing the petroleum bearing south-western part of Schleswig-Holstein. Here advances and retreats of the Scandinavian ice sheet during Saalian and Elsterian glaciation Stages were reconstructed. Maximum ice thicknesses of up to 1700 m and up to 20 periods of regional permafrost in northern Germany were reconstructed for the past 1.25 million years. Based on a basal heat flow of 50 mW/m² permafrost thicknesses exceeded 100 m during most of these periods, temporarily extending down to depths of more than 300 m. Favourable surface temperatures and long durations of cold periods provided favourable conditions for onshore gas hydrate stability zones at Mittelplate. Implementing these glacial dynamics into 2D basin modelling (PetroMod, IES, Aachen, Germany) of the Mittelplate oil field reveals five phases of gas hydrate stability at depths down to 750 m. The latest of these events occurred during the Weichselian about 20 kyr ago. The effect of the ice sheets on pore pressure in the subsurface strongly depends on the hydraulic boundary conditions at the ice base (e.g. frozen vs. temperate ice sheet base). Excess pore pressure in the reservoir of more than 10 MPa during ice overriding is possible and probable. The calculated temperature effect of the Pleistocene cooling on the Mittelplate reservoir is in the range of 3–7 °C. Even today temperature in the reservoir is still lowered by about 4 °C in comparison to pre-Pleistocene times. Despite the fact that a significant influence of glacial effects on petroleum generation can be ruled out at Mittelplate, we state that pT-effects in reservoirs related to glacial processes in formerly glaciated areas have been underestimated in the past.     

Control of Aptian palaeobathymetry on turbidite distribution in the Buchan Graben,Outer Moray Firth,Central North Sea

It is widely recognised that palaeobathymetry is a key control on the distribution of turbidite deposits. Thus, the utilisation of palaeobathymetric surfaces as an input for numerical turbidity current modelling offers a potentially powerful method to predict the distribution of deep marine sands in ancient (subsurface or outcrop) successions. Such an approach has been tested on an Aptian turbidite deposit from the Buchan Graben, UK Central North Sea, where modelled sand distributions could be quality controlled against available well data.     

Balancing deformation in NW Borneo: Quantifying plate-scale vs. gravitational tectonics in a delta and deepwater fold-thrust belt system

Recent GPS measurements demonstrate that NW Borneo undergoes 4–6 mm of plate-scale shortening a year, which is not accommodated by plate-scale structures. The only geological structure in NW Borneo described to accommodate on-going shortening is the Baram Delta System located on the outer shelf to basin floor. Delta toe fold-thrust belts are commonly thought to be caused by margin-normal compressional stresses generated by margin-parallel upslope gravitational extension.     

Risk identification and perception in the fisheries sector: Comparisons between the Faroes,Greece, Iceland and UK

This paper presents the findings of risk identification and risk perception research conducted in relation to the fisheries systems of four distinct and diverse European countries: Faroes, Iceland, Greece and the UK. Risk research traditionally attempts to quantify the potential threat or consequences from a range of risk events or hazards. This research, however, adopted a social sciences perspective and so assumed that a risk event or hazard can mean different things to different people and that these perceptions are also context and culturally dependent. Risk perceptions were examined and risk registers developed in each country for a range of stakeholder groups. A ‘mental modelling’ approach was adopted in a series of qualitative interviews. Findings were examined in terms of a wide range of psychological, social and cultural risk theories. Differences in risk perceptions were noted between stakeholder groups and countries and contextual influences were examined such as the widely differing fisheries management systems used in each country. This research provides one of the first attempts to systematically evaluate risks and perceptions across a range of fisheries-systems. The findings support social science theories which argue that risk is a subjective, as opposed to objective, concept and that this subjectivity will therefore affect our attempts to assess and manage those hazards we think we can potentially influence or control.     

Probabilistic modelling of long-term beach evolution near segmented shore-parallel breakwaters

This paper presents a new framework for probabilistic modelling of long-term beach evolution in the vicinity of detached breakwaters. The study focuses on the key physical processes contributing to beach variability over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Based on a one-line model, the framework is enhanced with sophisticated solutions for beach-wave-structure interaction, diffraction together with a treatment of varying tide level. The sediment transport rate is calibrated at regional and local levels using data from bespoke field campaigns and site-specific coefficients are proposed. Monte Carlo simulation is conducted for long-term shoreline simulation under a sequence of time varying sequence of waves, currents and tidal levels. The results of the Monte Carlo simulation give an insight into the statistical characteristics of beach behaviour within the defence system. In particular, regions within the scheme that are relatively stable and those that exhibit greater natural fluctuations are identified.     

Modelling the effect of wave overtopping on nearshore hydrodynamics and morphodynamics around shore-parallel breakwaters

Wave overtopping nearshore coastal structures, such as shore-parallel breakwaters, can significantly alter the current circulation and sediment transport patterns around the structures, which in turn affects the formation of tombolos and salients in the nearshore area. This paper describes the implementation of a wave overtopping module into an existing depth-averaged coastal morphological mode: COAST2D and model applications to investigate the effect of wave overtopping on the hydrodynamics and morphodynamics around a group of shore-parallel breakwaters. The hydrodynamic aspects of the model were validated against a series of laboratory conditions. The model was then applied to a study site at Sea Palling, Norfolk, UK, where 9 shore-parallel segmented breakwaters including 4 surface-piercing and 5 low-crested breakwaters are present, for the storm conditions in Nov 2006. The model results were compared with laboratory data and field measurements, showing a good agreement on both hydrodynamics and morphological changes. Further analysis of wave overtopping effect on the nearshore hydrodynamics and morphodynamics reveals that wave overtopping has significant impacts on the nearshore circulation, sediment transport and the resulting morphological changes within such a complex breakwater scheme under the storm and macro-tide conditions. The results indicate the importance of including the wave overtopping in modelling nearshore morphodynamics with the presence of coastal structures.     

Backward automatic calibration for three-dimensional landslide models

Back-analysis is broadly used for approaching geotechnical problems when monitoring data are available and information about the soils properties is of poor quality.For landslide stability assessment back-analysis calibration is usually carried out by time consuming trial-and-error procedure.This paper presents a new automatic Decision Support System that supports the selection of the soil parameters for three-dimensional models of landslides based on monitoring data.The method considering a pool of possible solutions,generated through permutation of soil parameters,selects the best ten configurations that are more congruent with the measured displacements.This reduces the operator biases while on the other hand allows the operator to control each step of the computation.The final selection of the preferred solution among the ten best-fitting solutions is carried out by an operator.The operator control is necessary as he may include in the final decision process all the qualitative elements that cannot be included in a qualitative analysis but nevertheless characterize a landslide dynamic as a whole epistemological subject,for example on the base of geomorphological evidence.A landslide located in Northeast Italy has been selected as example for showing the system potentiality.The proposed method is straightforward,scalable and robust and could be useful for researchers and practitioners.     

地下RC结构物地震响应特征土工离心试验的模拟

地下结构物抗震稳定性的研究具有重要实际意义。基于动态土工离心试验,应用有效应力法分析了不同水平地震作用下土层和地下RC结构物的最大水平位移、不同埋深的土层加速度和超孔隙水压力变化规律,以及结构物的破坏发展特征,并进一步与试验结果进行了相互验证和对比,取得了较好效果,为重要地下结构物的抗震设计提供了依据和参考。     

Validation of a soil water balance model using soil water content and pressure head data

The validation of soil water balance models and the evaluation of the quality of the model predictions at field‐scale require time‐series of in situ measured model outputs. In our study, we have validated such a model using a 6‐year period with time‐series of automatically recorded, daily volumetric soil water contents measured with the time‐domain reflectometry with intelligent microelements (TRIME) method and daily pressure heads measured with tensiometers. The comparisons of simulated with measured soil water contents and pressure heads were analysed using the modelling efficiency index (IA) and the square root of the mean square error (RMSE) in order to evaluate the prediction quality of the model. In our study, IA and RMSE, obtained either from the comparison of simulated with measured soil water contents or the comparison of calculated with observed pressure heads, in some cases lead to different results regarding the evaluation of the simulation quality of the soil water balance model. For example, a good fit between simulated and observed soil water contents does not necessarily result in a comparably good fit between the corresponding calculated and measured pressure heads. Therefore, a combined use of both measurement techniques, which takes into account their respective advantages and disadvantages, gives a more complete overview on the simulation quality of the soil water balance model than the single use of one of those techniques. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.