Screening model for volatile pollutants in dual porosity soils

This paper develops mass fraction models for transport and fate of agricultural pollutants in structured two-region soils. Mass fraction index models, based on a semi-infinite domain solution, are derived that describe leaching at depth, vapor losses through soil surface, absorption, and degradation in the dynamic- and stagnant-water soil regions. The models predict that leaching is the result of the combined effect of the upward vapor-phase transport relative to downward advection, residence time relative to half-life, dispersion, and lateral diffusive mass transfer. Simulations show that leached fraction of volatile compounds does not always decrease monotonically with increased residence time relative to the pollutant half-life, as a result of complex interactions among the different physical and biochemical processes. The results show that leaching, volatilization, and degradation losses can be affected significantly by lateral diffusive mass transfer into immobile-water regions and advection relative to dispersion (i.e. Peclet number) in the mobile-water regions. It is shown that solute diffusion into the immobile phase and subsequent biochemical decay reduces leaching and vapor losses through soil surface. Potential use of the modified leaching index for the screening of selected pesticides is illustrated for different soil textures and infiltration rates. The analysis may be useful to the management of pesticides and the design of landfills.     

Predicting average annual groundwater levels from climatic variables: an empirical model

On the basis of one-dimensional theoretical water flow model, we demonstrate that the groundwater level variation follows a pattern similar to recharge fluctuation, with a time delay that depends on the characteristics of aquifer, recharge pattern as well as the distance between the recharge and observation locations. On the basis of a water budget model and the groundwater flow model, we propose an empirical model that links climatic variables to groundwater level. The empirical model is tested using a partial data set from historical records of water levels from more than 80 wells in a monitoring network for the carbonate rock aquifer, southern Manitoba, Canada. The testing results show that the predicted groundwater levels are very close to the observed ones in most cases. The overall average correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed water levels is 0.92. This proposed empirical statistical model could be used to predict variations in groundwater level in response to different climate scenarios in a climate change impact assessment.     

Natural hydraulic cracking: numerical model and sensitivity study

Natural hydrofracturing caused by overpressure plays an important role in geopressure evolution and hydrocarbon migration in petroliferous basins. Its mechanism is quite well understood in the case of artificial hydraulic fracturing triggered by high-pressure fluid injection in a well. This is not so for natural hydraulic fracturing which is assumed to initiate as micro-cracks with large influence on the permeability of the medium. The mechanism of natural hydraulic cracking, triggered by increasing pore pressure during geological periods, is studied using a fracturing model coupled to the physical processes occurring during basin evolution. In this model, the hydraulic cracking threshold is assumed to lie between the classical failure limit and the beginning of dilatancy. Fluid pressure evolution is calculated iteratively in order to allow dynamic adjustment of permeability so that the fracturing limit is always preserved. The increase of permeability is interpreted on the basis of equivalent fractures. It is found that fracturing is very efficient to keep a stress level at the rock’s hydraulic cracking limit: a fracture permeability one order of magnitude larger than the intrinsic permeability of the rock would be enough. Observations reported from actual basins and model results strongly suggest that natural hydraulic cracking occurs continuously to keep the pressure at the fracturing limit under relaxed stress conditions.     

Gravity and magnetic signatures of volcanic plugs related to Deccan volcanism in Saurashtra, India and their physical and geochemical properties

The Bouguer anomaly and the total intensity magnetic maps of Saurashtra have delineated six circular gravity highs and magnetic anomalies of 40-60 mGal (10⁻⁵m/s²) and 800-1000 nT, respectively. Three of them in western Saurashtra coincide with known volcanic plugs associated with Deccan Volcanic Province (DVP), while the other three in SE Saurashtra coincide with rather concealed plugs exposed partially. The DVP represents different phases of eruption during 65.5±2.5 Ma from the Reunion plume. The geochemical data of the exposed rock samples from these plugs exhibit a wide variation in source composition, which varies from ultramafic/mafic to felsic composition of volcanic plugs in western Saurashtra and an alkaline composition for those in SE Saurashtra. Detailed studies of granophyres and alkaline rocks from these volcanic plugs reveal a calc-alkaline differentiation trend and a continental tectonic setting of emplacement. The alkaline plugs of SE Saurashtra are associated with NE-SW oriented structural trends, related to the Gulf of Cambay and the Cambay rift basin along the track of the Reunion plume. This indicates a deeper source for these plugs compared to those in the western part and may represent the primary source magma. The Junagadh plug with well differentiated ring complexes in western Saurashtra shows well defined centers of magnetic anomaly while the magnetic anomalies due to other plugs are diffused though of the same amplitude. This implies that other plugs are also associated with mafic/ultramafic components, which may not be differentiated and may be present at subsurface levels. Paleomagnetic measurements on surface rock samples from DVP in Saurashtra suggest a susceptibility of 5.5×10⁻² SI units with an average Koenigsberger ratio (Q_n) of almost one and average direction of remanent magnetization of D=147.4° and I=+56.1°. The virtual geomagnetic pole (VGP) position computed from the mean direction of magnetization for the volcanic plugs and Deccan basalt of Saurashtra is 30°N and 74°W, which is close to the VGP position corresponding to the early phases of Deccan eruption. Modeling of gravity and magnetic anomalies along two representative profiles across Junagadh and Barda volcanic plugs suggest a bulk density of 2900 and 2880 kg/m³, respectively and susceptibility of 3.14×10⁻² SI units with a Q_n ratio of 0.56 which are within the range of their values obtained from laboratory measurements on exposed rock samples. The same order of gravity and magnetic anomalies observed over the volcanic plugs of Saurashtra indicates almost similar bulk physical properties for them. The inferred directions of magnetization from magnetic anomalies, however, are D=337° and 340° and I=−38° and −50° which represent the bulk direction of magnetization and also indicate a reversal of the magnetic field during the eruption of these plugs. Some of these plugs are associated with seismic activities of magnitude ≤4 at their contacts. Based on this analysis, other circular/semi-circular gravity highs of NW India can be qualitatively attributed to similar subsurface volcanic plugs.     

Models of passive margin inversion: implications for the Rhenohercynian fold-and-thrust belt, Belgium and Germany

Positive tectonic inversion is related to the transmission of compressional stresses along a décollement into the foreland of an orogenic zone. This stress and strain concentration in regions remote from the main orogenic front is commonly related to the presence of pre-existing rheological heterogeneities such as normal syn-depositional faults. During inversion, these pre-existing normal faults are reactivated as reverse faults. Tectonic inversion in the Rhenohercynian fold-and-thrust belt during the Variscan Orogeny shows that inversion is likely synchronous with the onset of collision in the hinterland. Here, we present the results of a simplified thermo-mechanical model (STM) which allows one to study strain partitioning between two orogenic zones. We show that, if the two orogenic zones have the same mechanical properties, the viscosity of the décollement, which links them, controls the initial strain partitioning. During subsequent finite shortening, erosional processes determine the partitioning of strain rate. The presence of a weak structure in the inverted zone and of a low-viscosity décollement leads to initial strain concentration in the inverted track rather than in the collision zone and a progressive decrease in strain partitioning between the two orogenic zones. The STM results are in good agreement with results of a 2D finite-element model. We conclude that, in the western part of the Rhenohercynian Massif, simultaneous uplift and deformation within the Mid-German Crystalline Rise (the main collision zone) and the Ardenne Anticlinorium (the inverted zone) lead to interpreting this orogenic event as a case of vice tectonic rather than the propagation of a ‘wave of folding’ towards the Variscan front, as suggested by previous authors.     

Methodology for construction, calibration and validation of a national hydrological model for Denmark

An integrated groundwater/surface water hydrological model with a 1 km² grid has been constructed for Denmark covering 43,000 km². The model is composed of a relatively simple root zone component for estimating the net precipitation, a comprehensive three-dimensional groundwater component for estimating recharge to and hydraulic heads in different geological layers, and a river component for streamflow routing and calculating stream–aquifer interaction. The model was constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE code and by utilising comprehensive national databases on geology, soil, topography, river systems, climate and hydrology. The present paper describes the modelling process for the 7330 km² island of Sjælland with emphasis on the problems experienced in combining the classical paradigms of groundwater modelling, such as inverse modelling of steady-state conditions, and catchment modelling, focussing on dynamic conditions and discharge simulation. Three model versions with different assumptions on input data and parameter values were required until the performance of the final, according to pre-defined accuracy criteria, model was evaluated as being satisfactory. The paper highlights the methodological issues related to establishment of performance criteria, parameterisation and assessment of parameter values from field data, calibration and validation test schemes. Most of the parameter values were assessed directly from field data, while about 10 ‘free’ parameters were subject to calibration using a combination of inverse steady-state groundwater modelling and manual trial-and-error dynamic groundwater/surface water modelling. Emphasising the importance of tests against independent data, the validation schemes included combinations of split-sample tests (another period) and proxy-basin tests (another area).     

Aseismic negative dislocation model and deformation analysis of crustal horizontal movement during 1999——2001 in the northeast margin of Qinghai-Xizang block

Through numerical simulation for GPS data, aseism/c negative dislocation model for crustal horizontal movement during 1999-2001 in the northeast margin of Qinghai-Xizang block is presented, combined with the spatial distri-bution of apparent strain field in this area, the characteristics of motion and deformation of active blocks and their boundary faults, together with the place and intensity of strain accumulation are analyzed. It is shown that: a) 9 active blocks appeared totally clockwise motion from eastward by north to eastward by south. Obvious sinistral strike-slip and NE-NEE relative compressive motion between the blocks separated by Qilianshan-Haiyuan fault zone was discovered; b) 20 fault segments (most of them showed compression) locked the relative motion between blocks to varying degrees, among the total, the mid-east segment of Qilianshan fault (containing the place where it meets Riyueshan-Lajishan fault) and the place where it meets Haiyuan fault and Zhuanglanghe fault, more favored accumulation of strain. Moreover, the region where Riyueshan-Lajishan fault meets north boundary of Qaidam block may have strain accumulation to some degree, c) Obtained magnitude of block velocities and locking of their boundaries were less than relevant results for observation in the period of 1993-1999.     

Floodplain Residents' Preferences for Water Level Management Options in Flood Control Projects in Bangladesh

A maximum difference conjoint (MDC) model was part of a questionnaire toassess floodplain residents' preferences for the outcomes of water level managementinside an enclosed embankment system on the left bank of the Dhaleswari River, calledthe Compartmentalization Pilot Project (CPP)-Tangail. The outcomes were described as(a) varied flood depths in the rice field, (b) incidence of flooding on the courtyard andinside homes, (c) changes in floodplain and culture fisheries, and (d) varied conditionsof drainage congestion. Following a standard survey, the respondents from inside andoutside a completed section of the compartment (Cluster 1b) were shown profiles of these flood management outcomes and were asked to indicate for each profile the one most preferred and the one least preferred item. The results of the study indicated that the respondents had a clear preference for preventing flooding of their homes and courtyards and for an ideal water depth of 2 ft in the aman rice fields. At the same time, they also showed a strong concern about malfunctioning of sluices and to a lesser extent about the changes in the fish habitat. The successful application of the MDC as an approach to model tradeoffs among rural residents of Bangladesh shows that a relatively complex quantitative survey method, incorporating choice cards as pictograms, can be applied successfully even in a developing country.     

Hazard Zoning for Landslides Connected to Torrential Floods in the Jerte Valley (Spain) by using GIS Techniques

The Jerte Valley is anortheast-southwest tending graben located in the mountainous region of west central Spain (Spanish Central System). Mass movements have been a predominant shaping process on the Valley slopes during the Quaternary. Present day activity is characterized as either `first-time failure' (shallow debris slides and debris flows) or `reactivations' of pre-existing landslides deposits.A delineation of landslide hazard zoningwithin the Valley has been carried out by using the detailed documentation of a particular event (a debris slide and a sequel torrential flood, which occurred on the Jubaguerra stream gorge), and GIS techniques. The procedure has had four stages, which are: (1) the elaboration of a susceptibility map (spatial prediction) of landslides; (2) the elaboration of a map of `restricted susceptibility' in the particular case of slopes that are connected to streams and torrents (gorges); (3) the elaboration of a digital model which relates the altitude to the occurrence probability of those particular precipitation conditions which characterized the Jubaguerra event and (4) the combination of the probability model with the `restricted susceptibility map', to establish `critical zones' or areas which are more prone to the occurrence of phenomena that have same typology as this one.