利用RADIOASTRON模拟估计的EOP对相关参数精度的灵敏度分析

介绍了包括章动参数的空间VLBI数学模型,探讨了该模型用于大地测量解算的可行性;模拟了针对RADIOASTRON卫星的空间VLBI观测量及相关参数;利用所模拟的时延观测量研究分析包含章动参数的数学模型对EOP参数的可估计性,进而给空间VLBI数学模型中除EOP参数以外的参数赋予不同的先验误差,研究EOP参数对这些先验误差的灵敏度。     

正规化矩阵正定时半参数估计量的统计性质

对于包含系统误差和粗差的观测数据,本文将混合Cook距离引入到半参数模型中,实现了粗差的定值定位。首先,构造补偿最小二乘函数,利用泰勒展式,根据均值漂移模型与删失模型的等价性,导出了观测数据中剔除第i个观测数据前后参数分量和非参数分量相应估计值之间的关系式,为粗差的定位分析奠定了基础。其次,将混合Cook距离作为诊断统计量,进行粗差定位分析,得到了参数分量和非参数分量的诊断统计量的简洁计算公式,为了提高粗差定位的准确性,给出了混合Cook距离参数 Q 和C的一些常用形式,通过合理选择相应参数,计算参数分量和非参数分量的距离函数,实现粗差的定位,并将系统误差和粗差从观测数据中区别开来。最后通过模拟算例和实测数据验证了本文方法的正确性。     

COMPARISON OF MEASUREMENT METHODS BASED ON A MODEL FOR THE ERROR STRUCTURE

Comparison of methods is a technique often used for investigation of systematic errors of measurementmethods.As concerns the design and analysis of such comparisons,much variety of opinion and practiceexists.In one approach a few specimens are measured several times by different operators in differentlaboratories(reproducibility conditions)and in another approach several specimens are measured on oneor a few occasions by one operator in the same laboratory(repeatability conditions).In this paper amodel for the error structure of measurements is formulated and it is emphasized that one has todistinguish between two types of systematic errors:the first type depends only on the level of themeasured quantity and the second type is specific for the separate specimens.On the basis of this modelthe information which can be obtained from the different designs of method comparisons is discussed.A new approach for the analysis of method comparisons with many specimens is also proposed.     

Verification of the motion fields over Southeast Asia by the Florida State University (FSU) superensemble forecast

The Florida State University (FSU) multimodel superensemble forecast is evaluated against several other operational weather models for the Southeast Asia region. The superensemble technique has demonstrated its exceptional skills in forecasting precipitation, motion and mass fields compared to either individual global operational or ensemble mean forecasts. The motion field investigation for the season of 2001 reveals that the superensemble forecasts are closer to the observed data compared to the other global member operational models through its low systematic errors at the 850 hPa level. The FSU multimodel superensemble forecasts exhibit the lowest root mean square errors (RSMEs), the highest correlation against the best observed data and the lowest systematic errors compared to the other operational model members. These forecasts have the potential to provide better daily weather predictions over the Southeast Asia region, particularly during the early northeast monsoon that often causes heavy rainfall in the equatorial part of the Southeast Asia region.     

GPS测量误差源及其控制分析

介绍了GPS测量中各种主要的非人为误差以及它们给测量带来的影响,对于精度控制问题,主要讨论的是小型控制网（基线长度10～20km）和局部地区应用中动态和准动态差分测量的精度控制方法。     

低纬子午环仪器误差的测定及其处理方法

仪器误差的精确测定和消除对于提高子午环的观测精度有着至关重要的意义。本文简单介绍了低纬子午环的观测原理和仪器结构，系统地探讨了它的各种仪器误差的来源、测定和处理方法。为了进一步完善采用组合固定角距法测定对径改正的方法，在第三章，研究了提高对径改正测量精度的方法，重新推导了对径改正的计算公式，并就某些具体的条件，对其进行了模拟验证，得到了较为满意的结果     

Improving the accuracy of tipping-bucket rain records using disaggregation techniques

We present a methodology able to infer the influence of rainfall measurement errors on the reliability of extreme rainfall statistics. We especially focus on systematic mechanical errors affecting the most popular rain intensity measurement instrument, namely the tipping-bucket rain-gauge (TBR). Such uncertainty strongly depends on the measured rainfall intensity (RI) with systematic underestimation of high RIs, leading to a biased estimation of extreme rain rates statistics. Furthermore, since intense rain-rates are usually recorded over short intervals in time, any possible correction strongly depends on the time resolution of the recorded data sets. We propose a simple procedure for the correction of low resolution data series after disaggregation at a suitable scale, so that the assessment of the influence of systematic errors on rainfall statistics become possible. The disaggregation procedure is applied to a 40-year long rain-depth dataset recorded at hourly resolution by using the IRP (Iterated Random Pulse) algorithm. A set of extreme statistics, commonly used in urban hydrology practice, have been extracted from simulated data and compared with the ones obtained after direct correction of a 12-year high resolution (1 min) RI series. In particular, the depth–duration–frequency curves derived from the original and corrected data sets have been compared in order to quantify the impact of non-corrected rain intensity measurements on design rainfall and the related statistical parameters. Preliminary results suggest that the IRP model, due to its skill in reproducing extreme rainfall intensities at fine resolution in time, is well suited in supporting rainfall intensity correction techniques.     

Errors within the Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation procedure

Interpolation procedure is broadly used in sciences that are concerned with spatial data and continuous phenomena that can be depicted on a spatial surface. Interpolation makes use of sampling data, which is accurate and qualitative, in order to produce a continuous representation of the phenomenon in question. The data's accuracy is transferred by the procedure to its results and should be known. This paper examines error propagation by the interpolation procedure, using the Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) method in the case of the Earth's relief.     

Catastrophic and dangerous inflows to salt mines in Poland as related to the origin of water determined by isotope methods

 Tritium, ¹⁴C, δ¹³C, δ¹⁸O and δD measurements indicated as early as 1973 the existence of inflows of modern meteoric water to the Wapno salt mine in a Zechstein diapir. In spite of these early warnings, the continuation of improper exploitation led, in 1977, to sudden flooding of the mine followed by catastrophic land subsidence. The lesson learned from that catastrophe, as well as the results of isotope investigations performed in the Inowrocław salt mine, led to the decision to flood the mine artificially in order to avoid a similar land subsidence. The Kłodawa mine was not regarded to be in danger of flooding due to a thick clay cap. In fact, a large number of usually short-lasting water occurrences had the isotopic composition characteristic for evaporated ocean water. However, since 1956 an inflow has existed with δ¹⁸O and δD values close to that of pre-Quaternary saline waters and brines in the Mesozoic formations adjacent to the diapir. Two other inflows have recently occurred with the initial δ¹⁸O and δD values of modern waters. As a consequence, the mine is regarded to be in danger, and the exploitation of salt in the areas of inflows has been stopped. The Wieliczka mine, southern Poland, exploits Miocene salts overthrusted together with the Carpathian flysch from the south. The most dangerous and catastrophic inflows were caused by human errors. Isotope data show the water to be of glacial or Holocene age stored in Tertiary, slightly cemented rocks of low permeability, which neighbor the mine from the north. Owing to specific geology, the mine has survived for a long time, in spite of relatively large and long-lasting inflows. However, its existence is in permanent danger. Received: 7 March 1997 · Accepted: 17 November 1998