一致凸Banach空间中渐近非扩张映射的收敛定理

在一致凸Banach(巴拿赫)空间中研究了渐近非扩张映射的带误差的Ishikawa迭代序列的收敛性。结果推广了原来的定理。     

Estimating the Correlated Observation-Error Characteristics of the Chinese FengYun Microwave Temperature Sounder and Microwave Humidity Sounder

In operational data assimilation systems, observation-error covariance matrices are commonly assumed to be diagonal.However, inter-channel and spatial observation-error correlations are inevitable for satellite radiances. The observation errors of the Microwave Temperature Sounder(MWTS) and Microwave Humidity Sounder(MWHS) onboard the FengYun-3A(FY-3A) and FY-3B satellites are empirically assigned and considered to be uncorrelated when they are assimilated into the WRF model's Community Variational Data Assimilation System(WRFDA). To assimilate MWTS and MWHS measurements optimally, a good characterization of their observation errors is necessary. In this study, background and analysis residuals were used to diagnose the correlated observation-error characteristics of the MWTS and MWHS. It was found that the error standard deviations of the MWTS and MWHS were less than the values used in the WRFDA. MWTS had small inter-channel errors, while MWHS had significant inter-channel errors. The horizontal correlation length scales of MWTS and MWHS were about 120 and 60 km, respectively. A comparison between the diagnosis for instruments onboard the two satellites showed that the observation-error characteristics of the MWTS or MWHS were different when they were onboard different satellites. In addition, it was found that the error statistics were dependent on latitude and scan positions.The forecast experiments showed that using a modified thinning scheme based on diagnosed statistics can improve forecast accuracy.     

如何提高磁照图数字化的精度

CBMD是一款针对CB-3模拟磁照图进行数字化处理的软件,利用专业图像处理技术,对模拟磁照图进行数字化,由于模拟仪器调试及存放因素造成了图纸状况不尽相同,使用者在数字化处理过程中,根据不同的图,纸采用相应的方法进行处理,才能保证数字化结果精确度.本文就主要的几种影响处理精度的情况展开讨论,并提出具体的解决方法.     

集合预报误差在GRAPES全球四维变分同化中的应用研究Ⅱ：参数选取与数值试验

研究的第一部分讨论了如何有效应用集合预报误差的科学方案,确定了集合预报误差在GRAPES（Global Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System）全球4DVar（four dimensional variational data assimilation）中应用的分析框架。在此基础上研究了针对集合预报误差实际应用于GRAPES全球4DVar,解决接近或超过100个集合样本数时高效生成的计算效率问题,以及与GRAPES全球4DVar匹配的同化关键参数确定问题。选择基于4DVar的集合资料同化方法生成集合样本,通过将第1个样本极小化迭代过程中产生的预调节信息用于其他样本极小化做预调节,将计算效率提高了2倍。通过时间错位扰动方法增加集合样本数,实现集合样本增加到3倍。对集合方差进行膨胀,并选择水平局地化相关尺度为流函数背景误差水平相关的1.4倍。通过批量数值试验方法确定背景误差与集合预报误差的权重系数,对60个集合样本当集合预报误差权重为0.7时预报效果最好。对北半球夏、冬两季各52 d的批量试验表明,对于南、北半球En4DVar （ensemble 4DVar）较4DVar的改进在冬季主要集中在700—30 hPa,而在夏季主要集中在400—150 hPa。赤道地区受季节影响较小,En4DVar对位势高度、风场与温度的改进都较为明显,且经向风场的改进最为显著。文中研发的集合预报误差在GRAPES全球4DVar中应用的方法合理可行。      

The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland

The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The water quality model simulates the steady state concentration profiles of chloride, phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate as a function of distance along a river. The water quality model with the best combination of parameter values simulates the observed concentrations very well. However, the range of possible modelled concentrations obtained for other more or less equally eligible combinations of parameter values is rather wide. This range in model outcomes reflects possible errors in the model parameters. Discrepancies between the range in model outcomes and the validation data set are only caused by errors in model structure, or (measurement) errors in boundary conditions or input variables. In this sense the validation procedure is a test of model capability, where the effects of calibration errors are filtered out. It is concluded that, despite some slight deviations between model outcome and observations, the model is successful in simulating the spatial pattern of nutrient concentrations in the Biebrza River.     

现代技术发展对海图质量的影响与对策

分析了以数字制图技术、多波束水深测量技术、卫星导航定位技术为代表的现代技术在海图设计、生产和使用过程的应用特点,以这些技术本身的发展给海图的牛产技术、产品形式和使用方式所带来的影响为切入点,重点分析了由于这些技术的发展应用对海图的质量产生了哪些新的重要影响,并就如何消除不利影响、提高海图质量进行了讨论.     

衰减夹层GPR模拟的时频域全局反射误差

全局反射误差分析是深入研究探地雷达（GPR）吸收边界条件吸收效率的有力工具.基于常规完全匹配层（PML）的标准交错网格有限差分算法必须满足严格的CFL条件限制,即在单位时间步长内,不容许电磁波传播的距离超过单元网格尺寸.为了提高主区域所有网格节点的计算效率,并有效地吸收传播后期出现的低频隐失波,提出基于非分裂递归卷积完全匹配层（UCPML）的旋转交错网格（RSG）GPR正演算法.该算法采用不同的网格交错策略,并在边界条件中引入了吸收低频隐失波的自由可变因子,使得该算法允许选取较大的时间步长,提高了计算效率,并且实现了对低频隐失波的高效吸收.本文首先给出了RSG差分格式,推导了基于UCPML的RSG差分更新方程,探讨了数值色散的稳定性条件,然后以绕射现象严重的衰减夹层数值模拟为例,分别从波场快照、单道波记录、时间域反射误差（TDRE）、频率域反射误差（FDRE）四个方面分析了UCPML与常规PML的全局反射误差,说明了基于UCPML和RSG的GPR正演算法能更有效地吸收低频隐失波.

     

A GLUE‐based uncertainty assessment framework for tritium‐inferred transit time estimations under baseflow conditions

The last decade has seen major technical and scientific improvements in the study of water transfer time through catchments. Nevertheless, it has been argued that most of these developments used conservative tracers that may disregard the oldest component of water transfer, which often has transit times greater than 5 years. Indeed, although the analytical reproducibility of tracers limits the detection of the older flow components associated with the most dampened seasonal fluctuations, this is very rarely taken into account in modelling applications. Tritium is the only environmental tracer at hand to investigate transfer times in the 5‐ to 50‐year range in surface waters, as dissolved gases are not suitable due to the degassing process. Water dating with tritium has often been difficult because of the complex history of its atmospheric concentration, but its current stabilization together with recent analytical improvements open promising perspectives. In this context, the innovative contribution of this study lies in the development of a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation‐based approach for analysing the uncertainties associated with the modelling of transit time due to both parameter identification and tracer analytical precision issues. A coupled resampling procedure allows assessment of the statistical significance of the transfer time differences found in diverse waters. This approach was developed for tritium and the exponential‐piston model but can be implemented for virtually any tracer and model. Stream baseflow, spring and shallow aquifer waters from the Vallcebre research catchments, analysed for tritium in different years with different analytical precisions, were investigated by using this approach and taking into account other sources of uncertainty. The results showed three groups of waters of different mean transit times, with all the stream baseflow and spring waters older than the 5‐year threshold needing tritium. Low sensitivity of the results to the model structure was also demonstrated. Dual solutions were found for the waters sampled in 2013, but these results may be disambiguated when additional analyses will be made in a few years. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于DBnet和众筹策略的气象纸质表格快速数字化方法及系统

气象纸质表格历史资料有很高的科学研究价值和很重要的历史保留意义。数字档案通过数字化的方式将纸质原始资料进行收集、保存和提供各类数字信息资源。本文提出了一种“纸质表格扫描成像”+“图像碎片化处理”+“众筹识别”的快速数字化方法及系统,利用气象大数据资源,应用DBnet模型、DSCC算法等技术对纸质气象表格扫描图像进行图像碎片处理;通过用户的登录行为实现“众筹录入”,完成气象纸质表格资料的数字化档案工作。经验证,快速数字化系统的一录正确率约为99.7%,高于传统数字化人工键入的一录正确率（95.6%）;录入时效比传统数字化提高了22.2%。该系统保证了数据正确性、提高了工作效率,实现了气象纸质表格资料快速形成数字档案的目标,也为数字档案工作提供了新的思路;在新冠疫情导致传统数字化人工聚集工作模式面临较大风险的背景下,具有一定的现实意义。     

校准数字化矿图的一种实用算法——网格限制法

满足数字化矿图的精度要求是实现数字矿山的重要保证。结合煤矿地测微机制图和相关矿图的特点,本文提出了利用曲面样条函数及公里网特征点数据校准数字化矿图的实用数学方法。