Responses to climate warming of hydrological processes in the upper Kelan River in the Altay Mountains, Xinjiang, China

Kelan River is a branch of the Ertix River, originating in the Altay Mountains in Xinjiang, northwestern China. The upper streams of the Kelan River are located on the southern slope of the Altay Mountains; they arise from small glacial lakes at an elevation of more than 2,500 m. The total water-collection area of the studied basin, from 988 to 3,480 m, is about 1,655 km2. Almost 95 percent of the basin area is covered with snow in winter. The westerly air masses deplete nearly all the moisture that comes in the form of snow during the winter months in the upper and middle reaches of the basin. That annual flow from the basin is about 382 mm, about 45 percent of which is contributed by snowmelt. The mean annual precipitation in the basin is about 620 mm, which is primarily concentrated in the upper and middle basin. The Kelan River system could be vulnerable to climate change because of substantial contribution from snowmelt runoff. The hydrological system could be altered significantly because of a warming of the climate. The impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle and events would pose an additional threat to the Altay region. The Kelan River, a typical snow-dominated watershed, has more area at higher elevations and accumulates snow during the winter. The peak flow occurs as a result of snow-melting during the late spring or early summer. Stream flow varies strongly throughout the year because of seasonal cycles of precipitation, snowpack, temperature, and groundwater. Changes in the temperature and precipitation affect the timing and volume of stream-flow. The stream-flow consists of contributions from meltwater of snow and ice and from runoff of rainfall. Therefore, it has low flow in winter, high flow during the spring and early summer as the snowpack melts, and less flows during the late summer. Because of the warming of the current climate change, hydrology processes of the Kelan River have undergone marked changes, as evidenced by the shift of the maximum flood peak discharge from May to June     

碳酸盐岩差异性风化成土特征及其对石漠化形成的影响

碳酸盐岩极低的酸不溶物含量使岩石风化产生的残积土壤物质数量极少，并产生巨大的体积缩小，促使早期形成的残积土在重力作用下不断向下塌陷。显著的差异性风化使基岩面强烈起伏，甚至形成大量的岩溶尘洼地、裂隙、地下管道、洞穴系统等。在重力和水的作用下，土粒沿垂直和水平方向上经微距离或短距离搬运到上述低洼或地下空间中，甚至由地下河带到更远的地方，这是碳酸盐岩地区土壤丢失的重要方式，也是形成石漠化最主要的地质因素。土壤在地表分布高度不均匀，是碳酸盐岩地区的地表少土的重要原因。对于酸不溶物含量相当的石灰岩和白云岩而言，由于白云岩的差异性风化明显弱于石灰岩，以及受各种应力作用后，白云岩形成的节理及裂隙密集而均匀，从而提高了近地表白云岩的含水能力，延长了风化过程中的水－岩反应时间，使风化作用可以相对集中于地表或近地表进行，有利于岩石的整体风化作用的进行，同时使白云岩风化壳基岩面起伏相对较小，风化残积形成的土壤分布也相对均匀。因此，白云岩区地表土层较厚，石漠化程度也稍弱于灰岩区。     

盾构隧道抗震分析的整体强制反应位移法适用性研究

整体强制反应位移法采用土-结构相互作用模型,将地震作用下的土层位移以强制位移的方式施加到整个土层上,从而计算结构在地震作用下的响应。本文以天津某地铁盾构隧道为例,采用整体强制反应位移法进行地铁盾构隧道结构的抗震分析计算。为了验证该方法在复杂软土场地下盾构隧道结构抗震分析中的适用性,以时程分析法为基准,对比分析整体强制反应位移法、反应位移法和时程分析法3种方法计算出的盾构隧道结构内力图和内力峰值。研究表明,整体强制反应位移法具有较好的适用性及易操作性,具有较高的计算精度,是一种方便有效的抗震设计拟静力方法。     

互联网+社区地震应急桌面演练的设计与实施——以青海省海西州为例

地震灾害应对实践表明,社区作为社会治理的基本单元,在抢救生命、安置群众生活等方面发挥着重要作用。应急演练是有效提升民众防灾减灾意识和社区应对灾害能力的重要途径。近年来,社区开展了不同程度的地震应急演练,但在专业性和实效性方面仍存在很大提升空间。本文基于互联网+应急演练理念,提出基于互联网云服务的分布式、多社区、不限人数、同步或异步开展的应急桌面演练新模式,并在青海省海西蒙古族藏族自治州进行了试点应用。实践表明,互联网+社区地震应急桌面演练融合了传统桌面演练与实战演练的优势,可针对社区管理层开展地震灾害全过程桌面推演,能有效促进社区管理层应急组织协调能力的提升。     

差应变法地应力测量——以汶川地震断裂带科学钻探WFSD-1钻孔为例

岩心差应变分析法是汶川地震断层科学钻探(WFSD)项目地应力测量的主要手段之一, 该技术通过高压容器对取之于钻孔不同深度的实验样品施加围压, 观察先前由于失去地层应力而膨胀产生的裂纹重新闭合, 并通过裂纹闭合过程差应变曲线分析, 确定主应力大小和方向。WFSD-1孔12个岩心样品的DSA测试结果表明:断层上下盘的应力状态有明显差异, 区域地应力不仅随深度增加, 还与地质结构和岩石的物理性质等因素有关。      

土层地震反应中软弱夹层对加速度反应谱的影响

为了研究土层地震反应中软弱夹层对加速度反应谱的影响,本文构造了多种包含不同厚度、不同位置软夹层的土层结构,通过国内地震安评通用的ESE软件进行计算、分析。研究结果表明,软夹层的厚度、位置、输入地震动的幅值等对加速度反应谱均有不同程度的影响,上部含有软夹层的土层结构能造成反应谱出现双峰现象,引起加速度反应谱特征周期变大。本文研究结果对软土地区工程抗震设计有一定参考价值。     

HHT法的基本原理及其应用探讨

以Timoshenko单跨梁为研究对象,采用回转射线矩阵法进行动力响应计算,针对Timoshenko梁的瞬态响应信号为非平稳信号,采用基于Hilbert—Huang变换原理的信号时频分析,并与FFT的处理结果进行对比分析。结果表明,HHT方法比Frr法更适合非平稳信号的分析和处理,同时,HHT方法不仅可以将瞬态信号中低频和高频部分分离出来,还可以通过Hilbert谱展示信号能量在时频域内的分布,更为深入的了解信号的本质。     

A survey of numerical methods for stochastic differential equations

The development of numerical methods for stochastic differential equations has intensified over the past decade. The earliest methods were usually heuristic adaptations of deterministic methods, but were found to have limited accuracy regardless of the order of the original scheme. A stochastic counterpart of the Taylor formula now provides a framework for the systematic investigation of numerical methods for stochastic differential equations. It suggests numerical schemes, which involve multiple stochastic integrals, of higher order of convergence. We shall survey the literature on these and on the earlier schemes in this paper. Our discussion will focus on diffusion processes, but we shall also indicate the extensions needed to handle processes with jump components. In particular, we shall classify the schemes according to strong or weak convergence criteria, depending on whether the approximation of the sample paths or of the probability distribution is of main interest.     

关于部分变元的非常稳定性

本文利用极限方程的方法研究微分方程关于部分变元的多种非常稳定性,讨论了给定方程与其积限方程的非常稳定性的关系。     

Ekman层风速随高度分布方程的数值解试验

根据大气水平运动方程推导出Ekman层风速随高度分布方程,该分布可用二阶线性微分方程表示,用有限差分法求解该二阶线性微分方程的边值问题的数值解,并给出计算程序,输出结果。将结果与经典解析解比较,讨论了经典解的正确性和适用范围。