Changes to flood peaks of a mountain river: implications for analysis of the 2013 flood in the Upper Bow River,Canada

The mountain headwater Bow River at Banff, Alberta, Canada, was subject to a large flood in June 2013, over which considerable debate has ensued regarding its probability of occurrence. It is therefore instructive to consider what information long‐term streamflow discharge records provide about environmental change in the Upper Bow River basin above Banff. Though protected as part of Banff National Park, since 1885, the basin has experienced considerable climate and land cover changes, each of which has the potential to impact observations, and hence the interpretations of flood probability. The Bow River at Banff hydrometric station is one of Canada's longest‐operating reference hydrological basin network stations and so has great value for assessing changes in flow regime over time. Furthermore, the station measures a river that provides an extremely important water supply for Calgary and irrigation district downstream and so is of great interest for assessing regional water security. These records were examined for changes in several flood attributes and to determine whether flow changes may have been related to landscape change within the basin as caused by forest fires, conversion from grasslands to forest with fire suppression, and regional climate variations and/or trends. Floods in the Upper Bow River are generated by both snowmelt and rain‐on‐snow (ROS) events, the latter type which include flood events generated by spatially and temporally large storms such as occurred in 2013. The two types of floods also have different frequency characteristics. Snowmelt and ROS flood attributes were not correlated significantly with any climate index or with burned area except that snowmelt event duration correlated negatively to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. While there is a significant negative trend in all floods over the past 100 years, when separated based on generating process, neither snowmelt floods nor large ROS floods associated with mesoscale storms show any trends over time. Despite extensive changes to the landscape of the basin and in within the climate system, the flood regime remains unchanged, something identified at smaller scales in the region but never at larger scales. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于多元分布函数的区域洪水频率分析

极端洪水事件的频率分析往往局限于单个站点,当研究区域内包含多个水文站点时,单变量频率分析方法,会导致低估或高估洪灾风险率。因此,需要进行区域频率分析。传统区域重现期计算方法,同一重现期对应多种设计洪水组合,而基于Kendall分布函数的重现期计算方法(KRP)有效的解决了这一问题。故本文引入三维非对称Copula分布函数拟合区域内各个站点年最大流量的相关关系,利用半参数法估计Copula函数的参数,并采用KRP推求区域洪水发生的重现期。结果表明:区域发生T年一遇的洪水概率远远大于单个站点发生T年一遇的洪水概率;KRP克服了实测序列较短的问题,且能准确估算洪水重现期。本研究为防洪部门制定防洪措施提供一定的科学依据。     

近48年浙江省不同等级降水变化特征分析

利用浙江省62站1971-2018年逐日降水资料,从不同等级降水日数、强度等对不同等级降水变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明：浙江省不同等级降水日数主要存现由北向南递增的分布;浙江总降水日数先减少,2009年后有所增加,而降水强度为显著的增加,而小雨日数以减少趋势为主,暴雨日数1986年之后呈显著增加趋势,不同等级降水强度均呈现增加趋势;其中对年降水量贡献最大的是中雨,但小雨和中雨的占比均明显减少,暴雨占比增加较快。     

BCC_AGCM2.0.1模式系统对江淮梅雨期降水的模拟能力

文章通过累积频率方法定义江淮地区观测和模拟的梅雨期,分析国家气候中心大气模式BCC_AGCM2.0.1对我国东部地区暴雨、大雨、中雨和小雨四种等级降水的模拟能力。由于模式的模拟环流背景与实际不同,导致模拟的降水峰值时期与梅雨期有偏差,因此通过累积频率方法定义模拟的梅雨期,模拟梅雨期为6月1候至6月3候,而实际观测梅雨期6月5候至7月2候,模拟期较实际梅雨期提前了20天。模拟结果表明模拟的我国东部总降水量偏少,总雨日数偏多,主要是由于模拟的暴雨日数偏少,小雨日数偏多;观测的江淮地区近40年来暴雨、大雨和中雨呈上升趋势,小雨呈下降趋势,模式模拟的不同等级降水变化趋势与观测相反,暴雨、大雨和中雨呈下降趋势,小雨呈上升趋势。     

华北地震发生日期之间关系的讨论——纪念唐山大地震35周年

从异年倍九法（或称异年倍九律）讨论了华北7级以上大震发生日期之间的关系。这种关系对今后在类似季节预测大震的发生日期有一定的参考作用。     

不同纬度地区三类植物中正构烷烃及其同位素组成

本文应用GC-MS和GC-TC-IRMS同位素分析技术,对我国北部柴达木盆地花土沟至南部广西南宁5个地区草、芦苇和树叶3类植物中正构烷烃及其碳氢同位素进行了分析.结果显示了不同纬度地区植物中正构烷烃碳数分布在C15～C30之间,呈单峰型分布,主峰碳数为C27、C29和C31;CPI值分布在3.49～17.25之间,平均...     

分区封闭考勤算法研究

文章简述了员工工时填报对铁路勘察设计企业的现实意义,介绍了铁路勘察设计行业工时管理现状和存在的主要问题,针对虚空不实填报这一关键问题提出了指纹分区封闭考勤解决方案及相应算法,对项目工时网上填报实施必要控制,并在勘察设计企业的项目工时软件系统中成功应用。     

Deformation Stages and Ar‐Ar Age Data of the Wan‐Zhe‐Gan Tectonic Zone,Southeast China,and Their Tectonic Significance

The major tectonic zone that passes through the border regions of the Anhui, Zhejiang, and Jiangxi Provinces in southeast China has been commonly referred to as the Wan-Zhe-Gan fault zone. Geologically, this zone consists of several regional fault belts of various ages and orientations. We have categorized the faults into four age groups based on field investigations. The Neoproterozoic faults are northeast striking. They start from the northeast Jiangxi Province and extend northeastward to Fuchuan in Anhui Province, the same location of the northeast Jiangxi-Fuchuan ophiolite belt. The faults probably acted? during the Neoproterozoic as a boundary fault zone of a plate or a block suture with mélange along the faults. The nearly east-west- or east-northeast-striking faults are of Silurian ages (40Ar/39Ar age 429 Ma). This group includes the Qimen-Shexian fault and the Jiangwang-Jiekou ductile shear belt. They represent a major tectonic boundary in the basement because the two sides of the fault have clear dissimilarities. The third group of faults is north-northeast striking, having formed since the early-middle Triassic with 40Ar/39Ar ages of 230–254 Ma. They form a fault belt starting from Yiyang in northern Jiangxi and connect with the Wucheng as well as the Ningguo-Jixi faults. This fault belt is a key fault-magmatic belt controlling the formation of Jurassic-Cretaceous red basins, ore distribution, magmatic activity, and mineralization. When it reactivated during the late Cretaceous, the belt behaved as a series of reverse faults from southeast to northwest and composed the fourth fault group. Therefore, classifying the Wan-Zhe-Gan fault zone into four fault groups will help in the analysis of the tectonic evolution of the eastern segment of the Jiangnan orogen since the Neoproterozoic era.     

日本大叶藻（Zostera japonica）根状茎和不同发育阶段叶片的热值动态

对广西沿岸海草优势种日本大叶藻（Zostera japonica）根状茎、幼叶、成熟叶和老叶的灰分含量、干质量热值和去灰分热值进行了初步研究。结果表明, （1） 日本大叶藻叶片从幼叶到成熟叶再到老叶的生长发育过程中, 灰分含量升高, 而干质量热值和去灰分热值下降; （2） 日本大叶藻根状茎的灰分含量和去灰分热值大于叶片...     

基于小时降水资料研究广东省降水分布特征

基于2001-2018年广东省86个国家自动气象站逐小时降水资料,分析了广东省不同历时降水的时空分布特征.结果表明：1）除粤北山区外,基本符合年均降水时数越多,累积降水量越大的规律.年均小时降水强度从南部沿海向北部内陆呈减弱趋势.2）汛期降水事件以短历时为主,占全年降水事件65.3%;累积降水量上,长历时降水量占汛期56.7%.前汛期短历时降水多发生在粤西;中历时降水多发生在珠三角两侧和粤西北地区;长历时降水多发生在粤东和粤北地区.后汛期短历时降水多发生在内陆,出现频次自西北向东南递减;中历时降水分布不均;长历时降水多发生在沿海.3）汛期降水时数日变化呈双峰型变化特征,小时降水强度日变化呈单峰型变化特征.小时降水强度峰值易出现在下午的站点多分布在内陆,小时降水强度峰值易出现在下半夜至上午时段的站点则多分布在沿海、部分山区和珠三角地区.