运用德尔菲调查—灰色统计法确立水库鱼产力综合评价中的指标权重体系

本文运用德尔菲方法对水库鱼产力综合评价中指标权重的合理分配问题作了专家调查,并采用灰色统计法对调查结果进行归纳处理,从而确立了一个水库鱼产力影响因素诸层次各方面的评价指标权重体系,可供今后的评价工作参考使用。     

Abundance of the introduced seastar, Asterias amurensis, and spatial variability in soft sediment assemblages in SE Tasmania: Clear correlations but complex interpretation

The northern Pacific seastar, Asterias amurensis, was first collected in southeast Tasmania in 1986. Mistaken for the endemic asteroid Uniophora granifera, its true identity was not realised until 1992. It is now a conspicuous predator in soft sediment habitats in this region, and is considered a major threat to native assemblages and commercial species. We examined the structure of soft sediment assemblages at different spatial scales in southeast Tasmania, and correlated spatial variation in community composition with seastar abundances. We found that the structure of soft sediment assemblages is highly variable at a range of spatial scales from metres to tens of kilometres. Clear differences in the composition of assemblages and abundances of major taxa were detected between areas with and without seastars and between areas with low and high seastar densities. However, the nature of these patterns suggests that they are more likely due to differences in sediment characteristics than due to impacts of the seastar. Thus, spatial differences in soft sediment assemblages might have been erroneously attributed to seastars without detailed information on important physical factors such as sediment characteristics. A second survey, using larger sampling units (1 m²) but across a more limited spatial extent, targeted bivalves and heart urchins that were identified as important prey of the seastar in observations of feeding and in experimental studies. Large-scale patterns of abundance and size structure were consistent with seastar effects anticipated from small-scale experimental and feeding studies for some, but not all, species. While the field survey ultimately provided evidence about the presence or absence of seastar impacts at large-scales, the identification of key ecological variables in experimental and feeding studies proved crucial to both the design and interpretation of patterns observed in the large-scale surveys. Overall, this work highlighted the necessity to consider multiple lines of evidence rather than relying on a single ‘inferential’ test, in the absence of pre-impact data.     

Marine management for human development: A review of two decades of scholarly evidence

This paper reviews the evidence of the impacts of marine management interventions on human development and well-being reported in marine management literature in the past two decades. Documents dealing with fisheries, aquaculture, marine conservation and coastal zone management are assessed in terms of the methodologies used, the human development dimensions considered, and the results reported. The choice of dimensions for defining human development in this literature is contrasted with proposals from the literature on the capability and human development approaches. Possible areas for future research are discussed.     

东昆仑断裂带东段强震形势分析

围绕东昆仑断裂带强震构造背景及巴颜喀拉断块动力学环境,分析了1900年以来断块边界强震活动及强震周期性特征,探讨了东昆仑断裂带东段的强震危险性。     

放射性废物处置研究进展

放射性废物的处置是制约核能可持续发展的关键因素,目前已成为国际社会关注的热点问题之一.针对处置场地核素运移污染的风险问题,对放射性废物的处置及其选址、核素运移试验和核素运移模型进行了回顾和论述.指出采用多重屏障系统进行放射性废物的处置,其安全性是可以得到保障的;处置场的选址应遵循就近原则,并应从环境水文地质的角度来构建...     

The down-faulted basin zone and high disaster risk zone in Shanxi Province, China

Introduction Since 1920s, with increasing awareness of disaster prevention and reduction in various as-pects and gradually deepened development of International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) activities in China, the role and position of disaster risk analysis and risk management work are increasingly prominent. In the final report of the IDNDR activities in 1999, the Science and Technology Committee of IDNDR had presented 5 challenge fields, which the international dis…     

中国海相探矿权区块定量评价方法

在研究了我国海相油气探矿权区块基本油气地质条件、勘探程度、技术经济条件等要素和特点的基础上,给出了48个评价参数和归一化取值参照表,建立了探矿权区块评价工作流程、评分参数及计算公式。提出对我国海相勘探层探矿权区块评价应该注意:与国外海相碳酸盐岩评价的差别;与国内陆相碎屑岩评价的差别;成藏组合的划分;评价内容的有效性、不确定性和评价参数的可信度;成败经验的总结和勘探程度的研究。     

一次全球性新的地震活动高潮

This paper studies the temporal and spatial distribution of great global earthquakes( M W≥8.0) since 1900.We compare the two periods of upsurges of great earthquakes occurring in the middle of last century and beginning of this century.The former period took place between 1950 and 1965 during which 13 great earthquakes( M W≥ 8.0) occurred,including three events with moment magnitude greater than 9.0.The largest magnitude in this period reached 9.6.The latter period starts from the beginning of this century.In less than 12 years,15 great earthquakes have attacked the world with the largest magnitude being M W9.1.On the basis of comparison between these two upsurges of global earthquake activity,we infer that the ongoing high level of earthquake activity may continue for another five years or so.Numerous great earthquakes( M W≥8.0) and many large earthquakes( M W6.0~7.0) will occur globally in these five years.In addition,this paper also discusses the relationships between earthquake activity along the Sumatra segment of the Indian-Australia plate boundary and that in the Bayankala block in the middle of Qinghai-Tibetan plateau as well as in the blocks of the southern plateau.The results indicate that the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau,in particular its middle and southern parts,is a likely place for future earthquakes of magnitude over 7.0.