基于突变理论的太湖蓝藻水华危险性分区评价

蓝藻水华暴发是湖泊生态系统中营养物质长期累积的结果,是系统营养经长期演化后的极端状态.突变理论评价方法无需确定指标权重,减少了人为主观因素,并且计算方便.本文基于突变理论,采取蓝藻水华暴发的表征因子(叶绿素浓度)和导致蓝藻水华暴发的环境因子(总氮和总磷)作为潜在危险性评价指标,蓝藻水华的面积、范围以及暴发频次作为历史危险性评价指标建立多准则蓝藻水华暴发风险评价指标体系,并结合太湖九个分区进行蓝藻水华暴发危险性分区及全湖评价.研究结果表明:竺山湖和西部沿岸为极重危险性湖区;梅梁湾为重度危险性湖区;南部沿岸、贡湖和大太湖为中度危险性湖区;箭湖东茭咀、东太湖和胥湖蓝藻水华暴发危险性较小,为轻微危险性湖区.整体上看,太湖蓝藻水华暴发危险性程度由轻到重基本上沿东南-西北方向变化,与营养盐浓度由低到高分布趋势相一致.根据评价结果,可以明确太湖各区遭遇蓝藻水华暴发危险性的大小,为蓝藻水华风险管理和应急处理提供科学依据.     

An scientific evaluation of annual earthquake prediction ability

Introduction There have been nearly 40 years for earthquake prediction since the research on earthquake prediction was carried out in plan by some advanced countries since 1960s. For the hard long process of earthquake prediction, Alen, American famous scientist and former president of the evaluation commission of earthquake prediction in California, USA, said that the difficulty of earthquake prediction is more than the expected and the practical progress of earthquake prediction is more sl…     

基于特征比值的原油中PAHs标志物风化规律研究

以渤海某原油作为研究对象进行综合模拟风化实验, 探讨了原油中五类PAHs组分的风化规律并筛选出其中稳定的诊断比值。结果表明: 经过50d风化, 原油中PAHs的分布已经发生了较大的改变, 其中萘系类损失最为严重, 菲系列所占的比例有所提高, 二苯并噻吩、屈、芴系列则保持相对稳定, 这为进一步筛选用于溢油来源鉴别的新诊断比值参数提供了一定依据; 经风化检验, 现有常用6种PAHs诊断比值在风化50d后较稳定, 可用于风化溢油的鉴别; 所选取新诊断比值中, 菲和屈系列、烷基取代二苯并噻吩类、烷基取代芴类抗风化能力较强, 共筛选出34种诊断比值可作为溢油鉴别的有效指标。     

华南西部滨海湿地调查及主要成果

通过遥感、单波束测量、地质取样、海水取样、钻探、地下水采集与监测等多种调查手段及工作方法,首次在我国华南西部开展1∶10万滨海湿地地质调查与生态环境评价工作,对滨海湿地类型及分布、滨海海域地形地貌、沉积物环境质量、海水环境质量、生态地质演化、地下水化学要素进行综合分析与研究。项目系统查明了该区滨海湿地类型、分布、生态环境现状及其主要影响因素,对湿地生态地质环境质量进行了综合评价,构建了华南西部滨海湿地地质调查技术方法体系和生态地质环境综合评价体系,提出了滨海湿地保护和恢复的建议,为后续我国南方滨海湿地调查提供了示范。     

上海地区村镇民房震害预测方法探讨——以宝山区(Ⅵ度)震害预测为例

本文通过对上海地区地震危险性分析,论述了上海地区开展村镇民房震害预测的必要性。根据上海地区的建筑特点,并以宝山区Ⅵ度震害预测为例,对上海地区村镇民房震害预测方法的可行性进行了探讨。     

广东厚婆坳整装勘查区矿产类型研究

以整装勘查区内典型矿床的成因类型为基础,通过对潮州厚婆坳锡多金属矿、揭东新寮岽铜多金属矿、揭西五经富稀土矿、澄海莲花山钨矿、饶平溪西钼矿5个典型矿床的“三位一体”成矿地质特征进行对比,确定区内主要矿床类型有斑岩型、热液型和离子吸附型3种,对区内68个矿床进行类型初步划分,确定了不同类型矿床所具有的矿种组合,为研究区开展矿产资源潜力评价奠定了基础     

Evaluation of the Reduction in Uncertainty Obtained by Conditioning a 3D Stochastic Channel to Multiwell Pressure Data

A stochastic channel embedded in a background facies is conditioned to data observed at wells. The background facies is a fixed rectangular box. The model parameters consist of geometric parameters that describe the shape, size, and location of the channel, and permeability and porosity in the channel and nonchannel facies. We extend methodology previously developed to condition a stochastic channel to well-test pressure data, and well observations of the channel thickness and the depth of the top of the channel. The main objective of this work is to characterize the reduction in uncertainty in channel model parameters and predicted reservoir performance that can be achieved by conditioning to well-test pressure data at one or more wells. Multiple conditional realizations of the geometric parameters and rock properties are generated to evaluate the uncertainty in model parameters. The ensemble of predictions of reservoir performance generated from the suite of realizations provides a Monte Carlo estimate of the uncertainty in future performance predictions. In addition, we provide some insight on how prior variances, data measurement errors, and sensitivity coefficients interact to determine the reduction in model parameters obtained by conditioning to pressure data and examine the value of active and observation well data in resolving model parameters.     

杨房沟坝址高边坡工程地质特征及稳定性评价

为掌握杨房沟坝址高边坡稳定性情况及治理措施,采用现场调查及室内分析计算方法对河谷高边坡岩体工程地质特征及稳定性展开了全面研究。得出以下结论:高边坡花岗闪长岩可划分为块状、次块状及镶嵌结构等类型;边坡岩体质量从坡面向内分别为Ⅲ2、Ⅲ1、Ⅱ类,Ⅳ类岩体很少;天然边坡存在松动张裂、楔形体滑动及崩塌等破坏形式,控制性结构面为顺河向卸荷裂隙;从河谷演化角度通过数值模拟方法分析现今边坡应力分布、塑性区范围、变形规律及总体稳定性,认为坝址区天然边坡整体稳定性较好,降雨或地震等不利条件边坡可能存在浅部块体滑移失稳。     

四川广元地质景观类型及其形成条件与综合评价

广元境内地质景观主要集中分布于四个区中,即广元区、剑门关区、唐家河区和七里峡区,以岩溶地貌、丹霞地貌、典型地质剖面和水体景观为主,具有独特性、典型性、科学性和系统性、浓厚的历史文化性等特征。受构造条件、成景地层和流水侵蚀作用方式不同的影响,广元区以岩溶地貌和水体景观为主,剑门关区以丹霞地貌为主,唐家河区以地质构造剖面和变质岩剖面为主,七里峡区以岩溶地貌为主。按资源价值、景点规模与组合、环境状况和旅游条件等对四个区的地质景观进行综合评价,认为目前广元区和剑门关区具备构建国家地质公园的基本条件,唐家河区和七里峡区具备构建中型省级地质公园的基本条件。      

APPLICATION OF MAP AND FILE INFORMATIONVISUALIZATION SYSTEM TO COMPREHENSIVEDIVISION OF NATURAL DISASTERS- Takingthe ChangjiangValleg as an Example

In recent years，scholars at home and abroad have method，and that vanous disasters would be analyzed assynthetically studied natural dlsaste‘theoretically and an Integral．SHI Peilun（1991）putforwad a scientificmethodologlcally，as well as its cases analys。s（CND，term—regional disaster system，which Indicates that1987； MA et al，1990； MARBLE，1990； NE et al，the situation of a disaster（calamity loss）results from1999； PATAK et al，1982； SHI，1991；VAN et al，h…