Evaluation of oceanic transport parameters using transient tracers from observations and model output

A method is presented to find the age distribution of ocean waters, the transit-time distribution (TTD), by combining an eddying global ocean model’s estimate of the TTD with hydrographic observations of CFC-11, temperature, and salinity. The method uses a mixture model of an assumed form of the TTD, an inverse Gaussian (IG), and an established Bayesian statistical method. All known significant sources of uncertainty are propagated to arrive at estimates of two oceanic transport parameters associated with the IG TTD, the mean age (Γ) and either the half-variance (${\mathrm{\Delta }}^2$) or the Peclet number ($\mathit{Pe}={\mathrm{\Gamma }}^2/{\mathrm{\Delta }}^2$). It is found that the uncertainties on Γ do not overlap zero in most locations using only CFC-11, temperature, and salinity. However, the uncertainty on the other IG parameter does not overlap zero in only a few locations. With the inclusion of another transient tracer (³He/³H), the uncertainty on this other IG parameter does not overlap zero in just a few additional locations in the deep North Atlantic Ocean. Neither a single- nor mixture-IG representation is adequate for representing the full TTD in the ocean, particularly in the Southern Ocean.Differences between the IG parameters estimated using the model’s tracers as data (BayesPOP) and those estimated using tracer observations as data (BayesObs) provide information about the sources of model biases, and give a more nuanced picture than can be found by comparing the simulated CFCs with observed CFCs. Using the differences between each of the oceanic transport parameters from BayesObs and those from BayesPOP with and without a constant Pe assumption along each of the hydrographic cross-sections considered here, it is found that the model’s eddy mixing biases often lead to larger model errors than the model’s mean advection time biases. It is also found that mean advection time biases in the model can be statistically significant at the 95% level where mode water is found in the Southern Ocean.     

海洋重力仪稳定性测试与零点漂移问题

稳定性指标是海洋重力仪最重要的技术特性之一。针对国内对海洋重力仪稳定性测试与评估重视不够、数据处理过程欠规范、技术指标要求欠细化等现实问题,研究探讨了海洋重力仪稳定性测评的技术流程和数据处理方法,重点分析了环境因素和重力固体潮效应对测试结果的影响,提出了重力仪零点趋势性漂移、有色观测噪声与随机误差的分离方法,建立了比较完善的海洋重力仪稳定性评估指标体系,分析论证并进一步明确了重力仪零点漂移非线性变化的限定指标要求,为修订现行海洋重力测量作业标准提供了可靠的理论依据。     

废弃海底管道拆除安全性指标体系构建与模糊评价

本文以中国埕岛油田某退役油区海底输油管道拆除工程为例,建立了海底管道拆除安全分级体系和模糊评价模型。通过现场调查和专家咨询,将管道拆除过程划分为4个阶段和11个工作步骤,并将各个步骤的安全性影响因素归纳为4个一级指标和15个二级指标。在此基础上,采用层次分析法计算各级评价指标的模糊评价权重,并依据加权平均原则分别对各级评价指标进行模糊综合评价。结果表明,在各一级指标的评价等级中,海底管道拆除的技术方案与设备选择和管道状况对拆除安全产生的影响最大,具有较高的危险隐患。该工程整体安全性级数为临界安全。     

Evaluation of suitability area by ground source heat pump system in Baotou plain

According to the elements of hydrogeological conditions,lithology,stratigraphic thermal physical parameters,construction technology and economic rational elements,the evaluation system of ground source heat pump( GSHP) were established in Baotou plain. The factor weights were determined by using analytic hierarchy process,and the comprehensive element method was selected to evaluate the region suitability of GSHP system. The results show that the suitable area is 559. 63 km2 for utilizing GSHP in the studied area,accounting for 62. 58% of the total area; while the unsuitable area is 334. 60 km2,accounting for37.42%. The evaluating results can provide not only a scientific basis for development and utilization rationally of shallow geothermal heat in Baotou,but also offer an important reference to the other areas.     

基于指标规范值的海水水质评价的SVR模型

为了建立具有普适通用的海水水质评价的支持向量机模型,在设置各指标参照值和指标规范变换式,并对指标进行规范变换的基础上,应用免疫进化优化算法,建立基于指标规范值的海水水质评价的回归支持向量机模型。将优化好的模型用于珠江口海水水质的评价,其评价结果与BP神经网络的评价结果基本一致,从而表明基于指标规范值的支持向量机模型用于海水水质评价是可行的,且该模型较传统的支持向量机评价模型具有较好的普适性和通用性。     

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Evaluation of Three Harvest Control Rules for Bigeye Tuna（Thunnus obesus） Fisheries in the Indian Ocean

The stock of Bigeye tuna（Thunnus obesus） in the Indian Ocean supports an important international fishery and is considered to be fully exploited. The responsible management agency, the Indian Ocean Tuna Commission（IOTC）, does not have an explicit management decision-making framework in place to prevent over-fishing. In this study, we evaluated three harvest control rules, i） constant fishing mortality（CF）, from 0.2 to 0.6, ii） constant catch（CC）, from 60000 to 140000 t, and iii） constant escapement（CE）, from 0.3 to 0.7. The population dynamics simulated by the operating model was based on the most recent stock assessment using Stock Synthesis version Ⅲ（SS3）. Three simulation scenarios（low, medium and high productivity） were designed to cover possible uncertainty in the stock assessment and biological parameters. Performances of three harvest control rules were compared on the basis of three management objectives（over 3, 10 and 25 years）： i） the probability of maintaining spawning stock biomass above a level that can sustain maximum sustainable yield（MSY） on average, ii） the probability of achieving average catches between 0.8 MSY and 1.0 MSY, and iii） inter-annual variability in catches. The constant escapement strategy（CE=0.5）, constant fishing mortality strategy（F=0.4） and constant catch（CC=80000） were the most rational among the respective management scenarios. It is concluded that the short-term annual catch is suggested at 80000 t, and the potential total allowable catch for a stable yield could be set at 120000 t once the stock had recovered successfully. All the strategies considered in this study to achieve a ‘tolerable＇ balance between resource conservation and utilization have been based around the management objectives of the IOTC.     

Evaluation of three harvest control rules for Bigeye Tuna (Thunnus obesus) fisheries in the Indian Ocean

The stock of Bigeye tuna(Thunnus obesus) in the Indian Ocean supports an important international fishery and is considered to be fully exploited. The responsible management agency, the Indian Ocean Tuna Commission(IOTC), does not have an explicit management decision-making framework in place to prevent over-fishing. In this study, we evaluated three harvest control rules, i) constant fishing mortality(CF), from 0.2 to 0.6, ii) constant catch(CC), from 60000 to 140000 t, and iii) constant escapement(CE), from 0.3 to 0.7. The population dynamics simulated by the operating model was based on the most recent stock assessment using Stock Synthesis version Ⅲ(SS3). Three simulation scenarios(low, medium and high productivity) were designed to cover possible uncertainty in the stock assessment and biological parameters. Performances of three harvest control rules were compared on the basis of three management objectives(over 3, 10 and 25 years): i) the probability of maintaining spawning stock biomass above a level that can sustain maximum sustainable yield(MSY) on average, ii) the probability of achieving average catches between 0.8 MSY and 1.0 MSY, and iii) inter-annual variability in catches. The constant escapement strategy(CE=0.5), constant fishing mortality strategy(F=0.4) and constant catch(CC=80000) were the most rational among the respective management scenarios. It is concluded that the short-term annual catch is suggested at 80000 t, and the potential total allowable catch for a stable yield could be set at 120000 t once the stock had recovered successfully. All the strategies considered in this study to achieve a ‘tolerable' balance between resource conservation and utilization have been based around the management objectives of the IOTC.     

江苏沿海滩涂利用模式遥感影像解译和时空变化分析

为了弄清江苏沿海滩涂利用模式分布情况,定量分析其时空变化趋势,本文基于Google Earth Engine云计算平台和Landsat卫星遥感影像数据,结合随机森林分类方法,通过机器学习建立了滩涂利用模式自动识别分类方法,样本训练后识别准确率达93％以上.利用该方法提取了2002年、2014年和2019年江苏沿海的土地...     

Performance Evaluation of a Self-Developed Ozonesonde and Its Application in an Intensive Observational Campaign

To make a detailed test on the reliability and detection performance of the electrochemical concentra- tion cell （ECC） type ozonesonde which had been devel- oped and preliminarily evaluated by the authors, an inten- sive ozonesonde release experiment was held at two sites in Beijing and Changchun in June 2013. The results showed that the mean background current and its standard deviation were 0.03 （0.04） pA and 0.02 （0.03） pA in Bei- jing （Changchun）. The average response time and its standard deviation were 27.8 s （30.4 s） and 4.0 s （3.7 s） in Beijing （Changchun）. The ozone partial pressure profiles at both sites showed a central peak in the stratosphere and a side peak in the boundary layer. Large variation in ozone partial pressure was observed at the middle levels of the atmosphere （10-17 kin）. A more marked gradient of ozone change was observed in Beijing （3.4 mPa km-1） at the lower atmosphere level, as compared to that in Changchun （0.4 mPa km-l）. The results presented in this paper indicate that this self-developed ozonesonde shows a high level of reliability and good performance. The ozonsonde is expected to play an important role in opera- tional observations of ozone profiles.