东昆仑活动断裂带的强震构造条件及未来强震危险区分析

通过对东昆仑活动断裂带强震构造条件的研究发现，这条断裂带的强震构造条件不仅与所处的区域地壳运动状况有关，而且与该活动断裂带的规模、形态，断裂带的构造组合及断裂带的运动条件等密切相关。在研究了东昆仑活动断裂带强震构造条件的基础上，还沿断裂带划出了三个未来强震危险区。     

有序性分析与新疆7级强震预测

自然数可以视为反映世界客观本质的一种重要秩序，即信息，它不因加法处理而失真［１］。强地震在一定的时空范围内重复出现的现象称为有序性。自１７１６年以来，新疆及其邻区７级以上强震在时间上具有良好的有序性，有些强震在空间上亦表现出一定的有序性。强地震时间间隔值以６０、３０、４１、１９和１１年占据主导分布，并且相互之间关系密切。根据强震活动的有序性结构可进行预测：该地区未来Ｍ≥７强震可能发生在２００４年和２０１５年前后。     

The relationships between earthquakes and positions of the sun and moon（Ⅱ）——Sometemporalcharacteristicsoftheaftershocksequencesofstrongearthquakes

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Research on the seismotectonics of the Jan－uary 17，1995 Hanshin M7．2 earthquake

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Amplitude Ratio of Regional Seismic Phases: An Efficient Indicator of Thermal State of the Lithosphere

By analyzing seismograms of short period records at the Beijing SeismoJogicaJ Observatory, the present paper investigates the amplitude ratio of seismic phases. The results indicate that the amplitude ratio of Sn/Lg is correlated with the lithosphere structure, the thermal state, and strong earthquake occurrence in the region the seismic rays pass through. The significance of such a correlation in the study on the genesis and prediction of strong earthquakes is discussed.     

Study on the sources of some deep focus earthquakes in Northwest Pacific region

The sources for thirteen deep focus earthquakes ofm _b≥5.5 andh>400 km in Northwest Pacific region were studied using waveform fitting and shear fracture source model. The source parameters were obtained as follows: focal depth, faulting plane, slip direction, rupture velocity, rupture length, rupture direction and scalar moment tensor. It was found that all these earthquake sources can be interpreted as shear faulting and have simple source time functions. The strike direction of faulting plane for most deep focus earthquakes coincides with that of the subduction zone, especially in the deep part of the subduction zone, it results in the tendency of reducing the dip angle of the subduction zone. The multiple point source model was also used to study the source process. The waveform fitting is better than the shear fracture model, but the general rupture direction which coincides with that from unilateral shear source model can not be obtained from the multiple point source model. This study is supported by the National Science Foundation of China and the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.     

伊舒断裂带南、北段震源参数研究

利用时间城小地震地震图的方法，研究了震源参数与介质特性的差异。据初步研究结果，伊通－舒兰断裂南、北两段的震源应力降与Ｑ值存在差异。该方法是断层的震源深度范围内介质特性研究的补充，为断裂的分段提供一个重要方法     

信息增益在地震趋势估计中的应用

从熵中信息增益的定义出发，将地震中的能量和频度作为一个整体考虑，研究了全球１９００－１９９２斫Ｍ≥６．０地震的信息增益。结果表明，强震前有信息增益减小的特点。信息增益方法的引入，为利用中小地震进入地震跟踪预报提供了一个新途径。     

电磁辐射异常分析方法研究

利用河北省电磁台网１９８８～１９９２年的观测资料，对不同台站不同方向的异常映震能力进行了分析研究。并运用信息论方法计算了各台信息水平作为其信息可信度的权系数，对各台资料采用加权平均的方法进行了合成处理，发现比平时采用的等权平均效果要好。同时对其异常频次的累加合成对应地震的异常特征进行了初步的探讨