The dynamical environment of Dawn at Vesta

Dawn is the first NASA mission to operate in the vicinity of the two most massive asteroids in the main belt, Ceres and Vesta. This double-rendezvous mission is enabled by the use of low-thrust solar electric propulsion. Dawn will arrive at Vesta in 2011 and will operate in its vicinity for approximately one year. Vesta's mass and non-spherical shape, coupled with its rotational period, presents very interesting challenges to a spacecraft that depends principally upon low-thrust propulsion for trajectory-changing maneuvers. The details of Vesta's high-order gravitational terms will not be determined until after Dawn's arrival at Vesta, but it is clear that their effect on Dawn operations creates the most complex operational environment for a NASA mission to date. Gravitational perturbations give rise to oscillations in Dawn's orbital radius, and it is found that trapping of the spacecraft is possible near the 1:1 resonance between Dawn's orbital period and Vesta's rotational period, located approximately between 520 and 580 km orbital radius. This resonant trapping can be escaped by thrusting at the appropriate orbital phase. Having passed through the 1:1 resonance, gravitational perturbations ultimately limit the minimum radius for low-altitude operations to about 400 km, in order to safely prevent surface impact. The lowest practical orbit is desirable in order to maximize signal-to-noise and spatial resolution of the Gamma-Ray and Neutron Detector and to provide the highest spatial resolution observations by Dawn's Framing Camera and Visible InfraRed mapping spectrometer. Dawn dynamical behavior is modeled in the context of a wide range of Vesta gravity models. Many of these models are distinguishable during Dawn's High Altitude Mapping Orbit and the remainder are resolved during Dawn's Low Altitude Mapping Orbit, providing insight into Vesta's interior structure. Ultimately, the dynamics of Dawn at Vesta identifies issues to be explored in the planning of future EP missions operating in close proximity to larger asteroids.     

Large-scale zonal flow and magnetic field generation due to drift-Alfven turbulence in ionosphere plasma

In the present work, the generation of large-scale zonal flows and magnetic field by short-scale collision-less electron skin depth order drift-Alfven turbulence in the ionosphere is investigated. The self-consistent system of two model nonlinear equations, describing the dynamics of wave structures with characteristic scales till to the skin value, is obtained. Evolution equations for the shear flows and the magnetic field is obtained by means of the averaging of model equations for the fast-high-frequency and small-scale fluctuations. It is shown that the large-scale disturbances of plasma motion and magnetic field are spontaneously generated by small-scale drift-Alfven wave turbulence through the nonlinear action of the stresses of Reynolds and Maxwell. Positive feedback in the system is achieved via modulation of the skin size drift-Alfven waves by the large-scale zonal flow and/or by the excited large-scale magnetic field. As a result, the propagation of small-scale wave packets in the ionospheric medium is accompanied by low-frequency, long-wave disturbances generated by parametric instability. Two regimes of this instability, resonance kinetic and hydrodynamic ones, are studied. The increments of the corresponding instabilities are also found. The conditions for the instability development and possibility of the generation of large-scale structures are determined. The nonlinear increment of this interaction substantially depends on the wave vector of Alfven pumping and on the characteristic scale of the generated zonal structures. This means that the instability pumps the energy of primarily small-scale Alfven waves into that of the large-scale zonal structures which is typical for an inverse turbulent cascade. The increment of energy pumping into the large-scale region noticeably depends also on the width of the pumping wave spectrum and with an increase of the width of the initial wave spectrum the instability can be suppressed. It is assumed that the investigated mechanism can refer directly to the generation of mean flow in the atmosphere of the rotating planets and the magnetized plasma.     

The Impacts of Initial Perturbations on the Computational Stability of Nonlinear Evolution Equations

The impacts of initial perturbations on the computational stability of nonlinear evolution equations for non-conservative difference schemes and non-periodic boundary conditions are studied through theoretical analysis and numerical experiments for the case of onedimensional equations.The sensitivity of the difference scheme to initial values is further analyzed.The results show that the computational stability primarily depends on the form of the initial values if the difference scheme and boundary conditions are determined.Thus,the computational stability is sensitive to the initial perturbations.     

GRAPES全球集合预报系统不同随机物理扰动方案影响分析

为了更好地理解不同随机物理扰动方案对全球中期集合预报的影响差异,本研究基于GRAPES全球集合预报系统（GRAPES-GEPS）对比分析了随机物理倾向扰动（Stochastically Perturbed Parameterization Tendencies,SPPT）、随机动能补偿（Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter,SKEB）及联合使用SPPT与SKEB三种模式扰动方案所产生的扰动特征及其对集合预报的影响。为避免初值扰动影响,考察随机物理方案所产生的扰动特征时,不使用初值扰动。通过扰动与误差相关性分析（PECA）发现,不同随机物理扰动方案所产生的扰动对预报误差均具有一定的描述能力,而且联合使用SPPT与SKEB方案时,扰动对误差的描述能力最好。对所有扰动方案来说,扰动总能量最初主要集中在热带地区对流层中高层以及平流层低层。随着预报时效的延长,扰动总能量不断增大,其大值区不断向热带外地区转移。从扰动总能量的谱结构来看,扰动能量均呈现升尺度发展的特征。在基于奇异向量初值扰动的GRAPES-GEPS中,随机物理扰动方案的使用均能够显著增加不同地区等压面要素的集合离散度,并在一定程度上改善集合平均误差。由于集合离散度的增大,预报失误率显著减小。连续分级概率评分也有所减小,尤其是在热带地区,改进更为明显。此外,中国地区不同量级（小雨、中雨、大雨和暴雨）降水概率预报技巧在一定程度上得到改善。上述改进均在联合使用SPPT与SKEB方案时最好,这与扰动总能量、扰动与误差相关分析结果一致。      

Geophysical Hazard for Human Health in the Circumpolar Auroral Belt: Evidence of a Relationship between Heart Rate Variation and Electromagnetic Disturbances

Geomagnetic storms are a natural hazard tohuman health in the Auroral Belt of the Circumpolar.Geomagnetic disturbances in space, and the associated short-term variations in the atmosphere and the geophysical environment,provoke a disturbance of nervous and cardiovascular systems in the human body. The Heart Rate Variability (HRV) method providesa momentary response of human organisms toshort-term geophysical perturbations related to the Polar Aurora. A pilot project was performed in the Murmansk region in 1997–1999 with a contemporaneous series of records for both HRV in a test group of local inhabitants and the variations of natural geomagnetic fields.A correlation between geomagnetic disturbances and heart rate was calculated and different reactions of people on geophysical impact were shown. The special group of `Aurora Disturbance Sensitive People' (ADSP) was revealed. Aninternational study, aimed atevaluation of the impact on human health due to exposure of northern populations to the geophysical risk factor (GRF) in the Circumpolar areas located under the Aurora Belt, is needed.     

Nonlinear ray perturbation theory with its applications to ray tracing and inversion in anisotropic media

A comprehensive approach, based on the general nonlinear ray perturbation theory (Druzhinin, 1991), is proposed for both a fast and accurate uniform asymptotic solution of forward and inverse kinematic problems in anisotropic media. It has been developed to modify the standard ray linearization procedures when they become inconsistent, by providing a predictable truncation error of ray perturbation series. The theoretical background consists in a set of recurrent expressions for the perturbations of all orders for calculating approximately the body wave phase and group velocities, polarization, travel times, ray trajectories, paraxial rays and also the slowness vectors or reflected/transmitted waves in terms of elastic tensor perturbations. We assume that any elastic medium can be used as an unperturbed medium. A total 2-D numerical testing of these expressions has been established within the transverse isotropy to verify the accuracy and convergence of perturbation series when the elastic constants are perturbed. Seismological applications to determine crack-induced anisotropy parameters on VSP travel times for the different wave types in homogeneous and horizontally layered, transversally isotropic and orthorhombic structures are also presented. A number of numerical tests shows that this method is in general stable with respect to the choice of the reference model and the errors in the input data. A proof of uniqueness is provided by an interactive analysis of the sensitivity functions, which are also used for choosing optimum source/receiver locations. Finally, software has been developed for a desktop computer and applied to interpreting specific real VSP observations as well as explaining the results of physical modelling for a 3-D crack model with the estimation of crack parameters.     

Derivatives of reflection point coordinates with respect to model parameters

The motivation for this paper is to provide expressions for first-order partial derivatives of reflection point coordinates, taken with respect to model parameters. Such derivatives are expected to be useful for processes dealing with the problem of estimating velocities for depth migration of seismic data.The subject of the paper is a particular aspect of ray perturbation theory, where observed parameters—two-way reflection time and horizontal components of slowness, are constraining the ray path when parameters of the reference velocity model are perturbed. The methodology described here is applicable to general rays in a 3D isotropic, heterogeneous medium. Each ray is divided into a shot ray and a receiver ray, i.e., the ray portions between the shot/receiver and the reflection point, respectively. Furthermore, by freezing the initial horizontal slowness of these subrays as the model is perturbed,elementary perturbation quantities may be obtained, comprising derivatives of ray hit positions within theisochrone tangent plane, as well as corresponding time derivatives. The elementary quantities may be estimated numerically, by use of ray perturbation theory, or in some cases, analytically. In particular, when the layer above the reflection point is homogeneous, explicit formulas can be derived. When the elementary quantities are known,reflection point derivatives can be obtained efficiently from a set of linear expressions.The method is applicable for a common shot, receiver or offset data sorting. For these gather types, reflection point perturbationlaterally with respect to the isochrone is essentially different. However, in theperpendicular direction, a first-order perturbation is shown to beindependent of gather type.To evaluate the theory, reflection point derivatives were estimated analytically and numerically. I also compared first-order approximations to true reflection point curves, obtained by retracing rays for a number of model perturbations. The results are promising, especially with respect to applications in sensitivity analysis for prestack depth migration and in velocity model updating.     

The fifth-order analytical solution of the equations of motion of a satellite in orbit around a non-spherical planet

A high-precise analytical theory of a satellite in orbit around a non-spherical planet has been developed. The Poisson's small parameter method has been used. All secular and short-periodic perturbations proportional up to and including a product of five arbitrary harmonic coefficients of the planetary potential expansion are calculated. Long-periodic perturbations are derived with the accuracy of up to the fourth-order, inclusive. The influence of the high-order perturbations on the motion of ETALON-1 satellite has been investigated. The results of comparison of the numerical and analytical integration of the equations of its motion over a five year interval are as follows:

On the Origin of Near-Surface Streaks in the Neutrally-Stratified Planetary Boundary Layer

The dynamics of near-surface streak formation in the neutrallystratified, rotating planetary boundary layer areinvestigated. The purpose of this note is to compare large-eddysimulation results to theoretical predictions suggesting thatstreaks are associated with non-normal mode optimal perturbations.Streaks are regions near the surface of alternating high and lowspeed fluid organized into nearly linear bands, with horizontalspacing of several hundred metres, oriented up to 30° relativeto the geostrophic wind, that evolve through a continuous cycle ofgeneration, growth, decay and reformation. We find that the earlystages of streak formation and growth are consistent with thelinear theory.     

Organised Motion and Radiative Perturbations in the Nocturnal Canopy Sublayer above an Even-Aged Pine Forest

Using time series measurements of velocity, carbon dioxideand water vapour concentration, and temperature collected justabove a 15 m tall even-aged pine forest, we quantify the roleof organized motion on scalar and momentum transport withinthe nocturnal canopy sublayer (CSL). We propose a frameworkin which the nocturnal CSL has two end-members, bothdominated by organised motion. These end-members representfully developed turbulent flows at near-neutral or slightly stablestratification and no turbulence for very stable stratification.Our analysis suggests that ramps dominate scalar transport fornear-neutral and slightly stable conditions, while linear canopywaves dominate the flow dynamics for very stable conditions.For intermediate stability, the turbulence is highly damped andoften dominated by fine scale motions. Co-spectral analysissuggests that ramps are the most efficient net scalar mass-transportingagent while linear canopy waves contribute little to net scalartransport between the canopy and atmosphere for averagingintervals that include complete wave cycles. However, canopywaves significantly contribute to the spectral properties of thescalar time series. Ramps are the most frequently occurringorganised motion in the nocturnal CSL for this site.Numerous night-time runs, however, resided between thesetwo end-members. Our analysis suggests that whenradiative perturbations are sufficient large (>20 W m^-2 innet radiation), the flow can switch from being highly dampedfine-scale turbulence to being organized with ramp-like properties. We also found that when ramps are already the dominant eddymotion in the nocturnal CSL, radiative perturbations have aminor impact on scalar transport. Finally, in agreement withprevious studies, we found that ramps and canopy waves havecomparable length scales of about 30–60 metres. Consequencesto night-time flux averaging are also discussed.