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11.
WANGXie-kang HUANGEr CUIPeng 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2003,13(3):262-266
Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed. 相似文献
12.
用直接数值积分方法通过模拟不同的行星构型探讨了HD82943行星系统(由两颗共振的巨行星组成)的长期动力演化,同时,还研究了在相空间的轨道运动.在对系统长达107年数值积分中,发现所有的稳定轨道均与2:1共振相关联.典型地,在相同的时标内,两个共振幅角θ1和θ2同时(或其中之一)存在秤动.由于共振幅角在一定范围内的秤动,因而使两颗行星轨道半长径被约束而表现为规则运动模式.另外,利用分析模型(包含了外行星偏心率e2的因素),还讨论了对于不同取值的e2和相对近星点经度θ时,内行星在相空间的运动,并发现2:1轨道共振对于相对较小的e2以及当θ=0°时易于保持.此外,适中的e2将导致系统的两颗行星进入深度共振状态.再者,分析模型和数值计算的结果吻合得很好,两者都揭示了行星系统的2:1共振结构. 相似文献
13.
14.
周发贵 《地球科学与环境学报》2001,23(1):63-65
路基施工中保证路基填筑密实度,通常沙土路基采用水夯;普通路基采用振动碾、羊角碾等重型机具振密夯实。但在缺电、缺水,高气温、大风沙的沙漠气候等恶劣的施工条件下,风沙路基的施工如何保证路基填筑的密实度和施工机械在风沙路基上作业而不陷车的问题,就目前没有合适的经验可借鉴,也没有规范可参考。因此把在包西线神木北至延安北段的铁路工程建设中风沙路基施工所取得的经验和施工技术作一介绍。 相似文献
15.
16.
应用显微光度术、显微傅立叶红外光谱(Micro-FT.IR)和飞行时间二次离子质谱(TOF-SIMS)等原位微分析技术并结合均一温度测量对胜利油气区下第三系沙河街组沙三段中有机包裹体进行了研究。区分出两类有机包裹体,即原生有机包裹体和次生有机包裹体。结果表明两类有机包裹体特征不同,二者物质组成、有机质成分及化学结构、热演化程度等差别也较大。结合地质分析表明原生有机包裹体是沙三段烃源岩生成烃类运移产物,具“自生自储”特点,而次生有机包裹体是沙四段烃源岩生成的烃类二次运移的产物。沙三段是沙河街组油气运移和聚集的主要层位,因而是寻找油气资源的主要目标层。研究表明,有机包裹体是研究油气生成、运移、聚集和演化等成藏系统最有效的手段之一,在油气勘探中有重要的应用意义。 相似文献
17.
Zoran Knežević 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1993,55(4):387-404
Leverrier's development of the indirect part of the disturbing function has been extended to include terms up to degree 4 in eccentricity and inclination; the resulting series has been expressed with respect to a fixed plane, and in a computer readable form (a list of integers). Tests have been performed for the relative significance of the terms of degrees 2, 3 and 4, and estimates have been obtained for the accuracy of the short periodic perturbations of a minor planet, and of the corresponding mean orbital elements. It was found that: (i) even in extreme cases, the indirect part of the disturbing function gives rise to very small short periodic perturbations; (ii) bodies of very high eccentricity/inclination and those close to mean motion resonances are most significantly affected; (iii) indirect perturbations for minor planets can be computed up to the degree 2 terms only, without any significant loss of accuracy; and (iv) higher degree indirect perturbations appear to be important only for their contribution to the long periodic effects of higher order (with respect to the perturbing mass). 相似文献
18.
I.IN~crIOXLocatedinthecoddlepatofTallmBasin,withanareaof33.76X104klnZ,theTaldirnakan~isinthehinterlandofEurasia.Blockedbythehighmountainsaround,vapourofoceancanhardlyreachthedesert.APartfromthis,asthedeSertisinthesinkingcompensationareaoftheascensionalaircurrentaamstheQinghal-XIZangPlateau,itSprecipitationisrareandtheevaporationcapacityisintensealltheyearround.Allthesecontributetotheformationsofthetypifydrydesertclimate.Theacidityindexofthedesertandthearoundregionisashighasmorethan50,w… 相似文献
19.
The supraregional GIS-supported stochastical model, WEKU, for the determination of groundwater residence times in the upper
aquifers of large groundwater provinces is presented. Using a two-dimensional analytical model of groundwater flow, groundwater
residence times are determined within two extreme cases. In the first case, maximal groundwater residence times are calculated,
representing the part of groundwater, that is drained by the main surface water of a groundwater catchment area. In the second
case, minimal groundwater residence times for drainage into the nearest surface water are determined. Using explicit distribution
functions of the input parameters, mean values as well as potential ranges of variations of the groundwater residence times
are derived. The WEKU model has been used for the determination of groundwater residence times throughout Germany. The model
results – mean values and deviations of the groundwater velocity and the maximal and minimal groundwater residence times in
the upper aquifers – are presented by general maps and discussed in detail. It is shown that the groundwater residence times
in the upper aquifer vary regionally, differentiated between less than 1 year and more than 2000 years. Using this information,
the time scales can be specified, until measures to remediate polluted groundwater resources may lead to a substantial groundwater
quality improvement in the different groundwater provinces of Germany. With respect to its supraregional scale of application,
the WEKU model may serve as a useful tool for the supraregional groundwater management on a state, federal or international
level.
Received: 15 August 1995 · Accepted: 15 October 1995 相似文献
20.
《The Professional geographer》1987,39(1):85-94
Reviews of geographic software in this article: DEMO-GRAPHICS: WORLD POPULATIONS AND PROJECTIONS. ESP GAUSS. CEMODEL S. Damus LIMDEP. William H. Greene MICROSTAT 4.1 OTIS PCIPS. (Personal Computer Image Processing System) . H.J. Meyers and R. Bernstein. REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES (RATS) SPSS/PC+ URBAN DATA MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE (UDMS) 相似文献