Uncertainities in estimation of extrapolated annual occurrence rate of earthquakes using logical tree

The logical tree methods are used for evaluate quantitatively relationship between frequency and magnitude, and deduce uncertainties of annual occurrence rate of earthquakes in the periods of lower magnitude earthquake. The uncertainties include deviations from the self-similarity of frequency-magnitude relations, different fitting methods, different methods obtained the annual occurrence rate, magnitude step used in fitting, start magnitude, error of magnitude and so on. Taking Xianshuihe River source zone as an example, we analyze uncertainties of occurrence rate of earthquakes M ≥ 4, which is needed in risk evaluation extrapolating from frequency-magnitude relations of stronger earthquakes. The annual occurrence rate of M ≥ 4 is usually required for seismic hazard assessment. The sensitivity analysis and examinations indicate that, in the same frequency-magnitude relations fitting method, the most sensitive factor is annual occurrence rate, the second is magnitude step and the following is start magnitude. Effect of magnitude error is rather small. Procedure of estimating the uncertainties is as follows: (1) Establishing a logical tree described uncertainties in frequency-magnitude relations by available data and knowledge about studied region. (2) Calculating frequency-magnitude relations for each end branches. (3) Examining sensitivities of each uncertainty factors, amending structure of logical tree and adjusting original weights. (4) Recalculating frequency-magnitude relations of end branches and complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF) in each magnitude intervals. (5) Obtaining an annual occurrence rate of M ≥ 4 earthquakes under given fractiles. Taking fractiles as 20% and 80%, annual occurrence rate of M ≥ 4 events in Xianshuihe seismic zone is 0.643 0. The annual occurrence rate is 0.631 8 under fractiles of 50%, which is very close to that under fractiles 20% and 80%.     

Macroseismic evidence and site effects for the Lunigiana (Italy) 1995 Earthquake

On October 10, 1995, an M_L= 4.8 (ING) earthquake occurred in the region of Lunigiana (northwestern Italy). The shock was felt over a large area and produced significant damage. We performed a macroseismic survey and damage zonation and assessed a maximum intensity VII MCS in the epicentral area. The damage pattern, that we investigated in detail for some of the villages in the most heavily damaged area, emphasises the role of surface geology in amplifying the effects. Topographic effects and near-surface geology are largely responsible for broadening the damage area. Given the moderate size of the earthquake, many of the macroseismic observations, including rotations of objects and the propagation of visible waves in the ground, are suggestive of amplification phenomena.     

Higher-order approximation techniques for estimating stochastic parameter of a sediment transport model

Higher-order approximation techniques for estimating stochastic parameter of the non-homogeneous Poisson (NHP) model are presented. The NHP model is characterized by a two-parameter cumulative probability distribution function (CDF) of sediment displacement. Those two parameters are the temporal and spatial intensity functions, physically representing the inverse of the average rest period and step length of sediment particles, respectively. Difficulty of estimating the parameters has, however, restricted the applications of the NHP model. The approximation techniques are proposed to address such problem. The basic idea of the method is to approximate a model involving stochastic parameters by Taylor series expansion. The expansion preserves certain higher-order terms of interest. Using the experimental (laboratory or field) data, one can determine the model parameters through a system of equations that are simplified by the approximation technique. The parameters so determined are used to predict the cumulative distribution of sediment displacement. The second-order approximation leads to a significant reduction of the CDF error (of the order of 47%) compared to the first-order approximation. Error analysis is performed to evaluate the accuracy of the first- and second-order approximations with respect to the experimental data. The higher-order approximations provide better estimations of the sediment transport and deposition that are critical factors for such environment as spawning gravel-bed.     

Molecular stable carbon isotope compositions of alkylphenanthrenes in coals and marine shales related to source and maturity

Phenanthrene (PHE) and methylphenanthrenes (MPs) extracted from coaly shale and coal samples containing terrestrial organic matter are compared with the same compounds from marine shales in terms of yields and δ¹³C values at marginally to fully mature stages of thermal evolution. The shales derived from four boreholes in the Hils Half-Graben area, northwestern Germany, were shown to be representative of a greater number of samples from the same sites. The δ¹³C values of extractable PHE and MPs are less negative in the terrestrial (−24.3 to −26.0‰) than in the marine (−28.8 to −30.5‰) samples. Since these values are unrelated to mean vitrinite reflectance (R_r) values in the range of 0.5–0.9%, it appears that the stable carbon isotope composition of PHE and MPs is controlled by organic matter type rather than maturity.     

The analysis of compositional effects as exemplified by the study of elections

Some people are influenced by other people who live near them. They vote for the same political party as their neighbours and they go to church on Sunday because that is what most other people in the area do. This phenomenon is known as the compositional effect of the environment. This article offers a survey of the history of the analysis of such effects, of the explanations that can be given for them and of the research methods that can be used to establish them. The most important conclusions regarding political preference are given, and a direction in which research into compositional effects should develop is also indicated.     

上海地区未来海平面上升及产生的可能影响

未来海平面变化,特别是由于地面沉降等引起的相对海平面上升,将对沿海地区的地质环境及人类的生存发展产生极大的影响,通过对影响上海地区海平面变化主要因素的概括,对未来的相对海平面变化作出了预测,对由海平面上升引起的环境效应作了阐述,提出了相应的防治对策。强调了控制上海地区的地面沉降,以减轻海平面上升所造成的危害,具有特殊而重要的意义。     

Laser Guide Star for 3.6- and 8-m telescopes: Performance and astrophysical implications

We have constructed an analytical model to simulate the behaviour of an adaptive optics system coupled with a sodium laser guide star. The code is applied to 3.6- and 8-m class telescopes. The results are given in terms of Strehl ratio and full width at half-maximum of the point spread function. Two atmospheric models are used, one representing good atmospheric conditions (20 per cent of the time), the other median conditions.   Sky coverage is computed for natural guide star and laser guide star systems, with two different methods. The first one is a statistical approach, using stellar densities to compute the probability of finding a nearby reference. The second is a cross-correlation of a science-object catalogue and the USNO catalogue. Results are given in terms of percentage of the sky that can be accessed with given performances, and in terms of the number of science objects that can be observed, with Strehls greater than 0.2 and 0.1 in the K and J bands.     

研究局部场地条件对地震动影响的响嘡遥测台阵

对原有的响嘡三维场地条件影响台阵进行了扩建改造。增设了一个深度为47m的测井,对钻孔土样进行了土动力学测试,弥补了缺乏详细土层特性资料的缺陷。新老测井观测点均架设了电话线路,实现了观测中心与台阵之间的远程监控和数据传输。已经获取的一批中小地震近场记录可以用来进行盲测研究。     

Dynamic Characteristics of Granite Subjected to Intermediate Loading Rate

Summary A large diameter split Hopkinson pressure bar (SHPB) has been developed. This equipment is briefly described, together with a shaped striker that initiates a half-sine incident waveform to obtain the complete stress-strain relationship of the Bukit Timah granite at medium strain rate. Good constant strain rate was derived, and the dynamic complete stress-strain curves and energy absorption of the granite were measured at a strain rate between 20 and 60 per second. Repeated impact between 60–90% of the static strength of the granite was also conducted. Results from the tests show that the cumulative damage of the granite depends on the peak stress of the dynamic loads with a fixed duration. The dynamic fracture strength of the granite loaded at medium strain rate is directly proportional to the cube root of the strain rate. For the granite loaded at this strain rate, Youngs modulus is unchanged. Energy absorption of the samples loading to fragmentation determined its fragmented size distribution. At high strain rate, the rock possesses large energy absorption and the particle size of the fragments is much smaller.