GRAPES全球变分同化背景误差协方差的改进及对分析预报的影响：背景误差协方差三维结构的估计

回顾并详细推导了估计背景误差协方差统计特征的美国国家气象中心(NMC)方法及其优缺点;采用NMC方法系统地估计了新版GRAPES全球模式的背景误差方差、水平相关特征尺度和垂直相关结构,并与欧洲中心模式结果进行了比较。结果表明,目前GRAPES全球模式的背景误差方差比以前有了显著减小;水平相关特征尺度随纬度和高度有显著变化;背景误差垂直相关结构与欧洲中心模式结果非常一致,相比经验公式结果更具物理意义,同时,单点试验结果也表明,更新后的垂直相关结构产生的分析增量更合理。通过与欧洲中心模式背景误差协方差三维结构的对比,分析了不同模式间背景误差协方差的异同及GRAPES全球同化分析系统目前存在的一些不足及可能原因。为新版GRAPES全球模式的三维变分系统提供了基本的背景误差协方差的三维结构。     

普通克立格方法的奇异性问题研究

普通克立格方法是一种广泛应用于各种地质领域的线性插值方法。在普通克立格方法实际应用中,有时会出现方程无解的问题,而这些问题的出现往往与协方差函数的选取以及取样点的空间分布有关。这里通过对协方差函数的严格正定性分析,以及对取样点的空间分布对协方差阵奇异性的影响分析,试图拓展对普通克立格方法奇异性分析的各种思路,从而让人们在普通克立格方法的实际应用中找到奇异性无解的原因,有意识地避免可能发生的奇异性无解问题。     

近岸海洋气象平台涡动相关数据处理与质量控制

涡动相关方法在海洋—大气界面通量过程的观测研究中得到广泛应用。通量观测的数据质量很大程度上取决于环境条件和订正方法的正确应用,因此需要对数据进行处理与质量控制。基于博贺海洋气象平台上方2层涡动相关系统约7个月的湍流观测数据,分析了目前未能在数据采集平台上实时运行的几种订正方法对通量结果的影响。分析表明：在通量值较小时,...     

Using analysis state to construct a forecast error covariance matrix in ensemble Kalman filter assimilation

Correctly estimating the forecast error covariance matrix is a key step in any data assimilation scheme. If it is not correctly estimated, the assimilated states could be far from the true states. A popular method to address this problem is error covariance matrix inflation. That is, to multiply the forecast error covariance matrix by an appropriate factor. In this paper, analysis states are used to construct the forecast error covariance matrix and an adaptive estimation procedure associated with the error covariance matrix inflation technique is developed. The proposed assimilation scheme was tested on the Lorenz-96 model and 2D Shallow Water Equation model, both of which are associated with spatially correlated observational systems. The experiments showed that by introducing the proposed structure of the forecast error covariance matrix and applying its adaptive estimation procedure, the assimilation results were further improved.     

Progress and opportunities for monitoring greenhouse gases fluxes in Mexican ecosystems: the MexFlux network

Understanding ecosystem processes from a functional point of view is essential to study relationships among climate variability, biogeochemical cycles, and surface-atmosphere interactions. Increasingly during the last decades, the eddy covariance (EC) method has been applied in terrestrial, marine and urban ecosystems to quantify fluxes of greenhouse gases (e.g., CO₂, H₂O) and energy (e.g., sensible and latent heat). Networks of EC systems have been established in different regions and have provided scientific information that has been used for designing environmental and adaptation policies. In this context, this article outlines the conceptual and technical framework for the establishment of an EC regional network (i.e., MexFlux) to measure the surface-atmosphere exchange of heat and greenhouse gases in Mexico. The goal of the network is to improve our understanding of how climate variability and environmental change influence the dynamics of Mexican ecosystems. First, we discuss the relevance of CO₂ and water vapor exchange between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. Second, we briefly describe the EC basis and present examples of measurements in terrestrial and urban ecosystems of Mexico. Finally, we describe the conceptual and operational goals at short-, medium-, and long-term scales for continuity of the MexFlux network.     

Modelling hourly evapotranspiration and soil water content at the grass-covered boundary-layer field site Falkenberg,Germany

Abstract

The study analyses a 2-year period of hourly rates of real evapotranspiration (ETr) derived from eddy covariance measurements and soil water contents at depths from 8 to 90 cm, monitored by time domain reflectometry probes at the grass-covered boundary-layer field site Falkenberg of the Lindenberg Meteorological Observatory – Richard-Aßmann-Observatory, operated by the German Meteorological Service (DWD). The ETr rates and soil water contents were compared with the results of a modelling approach consisting of the Penman-Monteith equation and the soil water balance model Hydrus-1D using a noncompensatory and a compensatory root-water uptake model. After optimization of soil hydraulic parameters by inverse modelling, using measured soil water contents as the objective function, simulated and measured model outputs showed good agreement for soil water contents above 90 cm depth and for ETr rates simulated by our modelling approaches using noncompensatory root-water uptake. The application of a compensatory root-water uptake model led to a decrease in the simulation quality for the total investigation period.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Wegehenkel, M. and Beyrich, F., 2014. Modelling of hourly evapotranspiration and soil water content at the grass-covered boundary-layer field site Falkenberg, Germany. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (2), 376–394.     

Limitations and improvements of the energy balance closure with reference to experimental data measured over a maize field

The use of energy fluxes data to validate land surface models requires that energy balance closure conservation is satisfied, but usually this condition is not verified when the available energy is bigger than the sum of turbulent vertical fluxes. In this work, a comprehensive evaluation of energy balance closure problems is performed on a 2012 data set from Livraga obtained by a micrometeorological eddy covariance station located in a maize field in the Po Valley. Energy balance closure is calculated by statistical regression of turbulent energy fluxes and soil heat flux against available energy. Generally, the results indicate a lack of closure with a mean imbalance in the order of 20%. Storage terms are the main reason for the unclosed energy balance but also the turbulent mixing conditions play a fundamental role in reliable turbulent flux estimations. Recently introduced in literature, the energy balance problem has been studied as a scale problem. A representative source area for each flux of the energy balance has been analyzed and the closure has been performed in function of turbulent flux footprint areas. Surface heterogeneity and seasonality effects have been studied to understand the influence of canopy growth on the energy balance closure. High frequency data have been used to calculate co-spectral and ogive functions, which suggest that an averaging period of 30 min may miss temporal scales that contribute to the turbulent fluxes. Finally, latent and sensible heat random error estimations are computed to give information about the measurement system and turbulence transport deficiencies.     

不同 AMDAR资料同化时间窗对台风“摩羯”预报影响研究

2018年第14号台风“摩羯”对山东造成了大范围暴雨和大风天气,基于WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting）模式及其Hybrid-3DVAR混合同化预报系统,对Hybrid-3DVAR不同集合协方差比例和不同航空气象数据转发（aircraft meteorological data relay,以下简称AMDAR）资料同化时间窗对台风“摩羯”预报的影响进行了数值研究。结果表明：加大集合协方差比例对台风“摩羯”路径预报有较大影响和改进;当全部取来自集合体的流依赖误差协方差时,预报的台风路径最好,降水预报也最接近实况;AMDAR资料同化对于台风路径和降水预报也有正的改进作用,但加大集合协方差比例到100%时对台风路径预报影响更大;不同资料同化时间窗会影响同化的AMDAR资料数量,从而影响台风降水精细化预报;45 min同化时间窗的要素预报误差最小,对台风造成的强降水精细特征预报最接近实况;不同资料同化时间窗主要影响台风降水预报落区分布,对台风路径预报影响相对较小。     

A method to correct eddy covariance flux underestimates under an advective environment for arid or semi-arid regions

Water scarcity is one of the main factors limiting agricultural development in arid or semi-arid areas. Accurate Evapotranspiration (ET) observations and estimations are crucial in water cycle studies to estimate water losses from the terrestrial surfaces to the atmosphere to close the regional water budget. The eddy covariance (EC) method is an important technique measure ET and other land surface energy fluxes. However, the underestimation of energy fluxes and the problem of EC energy balance non-closure are far from solved. In this study, a new method is proposed to account for advection in order to correct EC data under advective environments. This advection based method was applied to data from Bushland, TX, which is subject to dry air and strong winds. Observations from two identical EC systems as well as two precision monolithic weighing lysimeters were used in this analysis. Both EC sites showed significant underestimates of evapotranspiration (ET) compared with lysimeter measurements. The daily energy balance closure for NE01 and SE02 sites were 0.78 and 0.74 respectively. The advection correction method provided improved performance in daytime, and it is more suitable for ET estimate than forcing closure under the advective environment. For nighttime, two methods (NCM1 and NCM2) were proposed to correct EC underestimates. Finally, all the corrected ET values were compared with the lysimeter measurements. For NE01 site, the MAD (mean absolute deviation) and the RMSD (root mean square deviation) were 47.72 W/m² and 67.66 W/m², respectively; and the r² (coefficient of determination) was 0.85. For SE02 site, the MAD and RMSD were 30.59 W/m² and 44.43 W/m²; and the r² was 0.93. The statistical measures illustrated that the proposed methods are functional and appropriate under an advective environment. The accurate estimate of actual evapotranspiration will benefit both the strategic planning of optimal water uses and the improved understanding the environmental and hydrological processes.     

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