The impact of epistemic uncertainty on an earthquake loss model

Models capable of estimating losses in future earthquakes are of fundamental importance for emergency planners, for the insurance and reinsurance industries, and for code drafters. Constructing a loss model for a city, region or country involves compiling databases of earthquake activity, ground conditions, attenuation equations, building stock and infrastructure exposure, and vulnerability characteristics of the exposed inventory, all of which have large associated uncertainties. Many of these uncertainties can be classified as epistemic, implying—at least in theory—that they can be reduced by acquiring additional data or improved understanding of the physical processes. The effort and cost involved in refining the definition of each component of a loss model can be very large, for which reason it is useful to identify the relative impact on the calculated losses due to variations in these components. A mechanically sound displacement‐based approach to loss estimation is applied to a test case of buildings along the northern side of the Sea of Marmara in Turkey. Systematic variations of the parameters defining the demand (ground motion) and the capacity (vulnerability) are used to identify the relative impacts on the resulting losses, from which it is found that the influence of the epistemic uncertainty in the capacity is larger than that of the demand for a single earthquake scenario. Thus, the importance of earthquake loss models which allow the capacity parameters to be customized to the study area under consideration is highlighted. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Real-time simulation of ground displacement by digital accelerograph record

Introduction The observation records of strong ground motion previously, on the one hand, supplied basicdata both to research on earthquake engineering and to constitute the criterion of aseismatic de-signing of all project structures; on the other hand, it provided important information for the re-search on the process of epicenter burst in seismology. With the development of research on strongground motion observation, especially the development of the new generation accelerograph,which…     

强震前的地磁异常现象

震前地磁Z分量的日变化异常主要表现在幅度和相位上的变化, 文中利用我国50多个地磁台多年的资料, 重点研究了1997年11月8日玛尼7.5级地震和2005年11月26日江西九江5.7级地震。 发现玛尼地震和九江地震以及大多数中强地震前, 全国地磁台站地磁Z分量日变化幅度的极小值出现时间(低点时间)在空间分布上异常特征, 即低点位移现象。 这种少见的异常现象与强震发生有较好的相关性。 发震日期为异常日后的第27天或第41天的前后4天, 强震发生地区在低点位移突变分界线附近。 结果显示, 在玛尼7.5级地震和江西九江5.7级临震前, 震中周围出现区域性Z分量日变化幅度异常现象。     

腰盘黄间隙的CT测量及其临床价值

目的 评价盘黄间隙对腰椎间盘突出的诊断价值。材料与方法 回顾性分析２００例腰椎间盘ＣＴ扫描资料，记录Ｌ３－Ｓ１间盘形态及双侧黄韧带厚度、盘黄间隙的宽度，分析这些结构与盘黄间隙狭窄及其对腰神经根压迫的关系。结果１９６个间盘突出或膨出，７８处黄韧带厚度＞５ｍｍ，腰盘黄间隙（ＤＦＬＳ）为腰间盘平面位于椎管外侧份间盘与黄韧带间的间隙。１７２侧显示腰神经根鞘受压，相应盘黄间隙平均宽度为（３．６± ０．８）ｍｍ。结论 ＤＦＬＳ＆ｐｏｕｎｄ；５ｍｍ为狭窄，主要原因包括；间盘突出或膨出、黄韧带肥厚等。它可以作为腰间盘突出伴神经根压迫的可靠依据。     

砂土液化诱发地面侧移分析

分析了砂土液化诱发地面侧移的机理，提出了估计砂土液化诱发地面侧颓废不久位一种新方法。该方法是用饱和砂层中水压力的发展，在每个应力循环内对土壤的抗剪强度进行修正，然后在每个应力循环内应用Ｎｅｗｍａｒｋ刚性愉模型计算地面侧向永久位移，对比计算表明，本文提出的方法在物理机制上更加合理，计算结果与宏观震害现象十分吻合。     

青藏高原南缘现今地球动力学研究

喜马拉雅构造带于新生代时期经历了两代受力条件截然不同的形变。早期造山挤压形变与造山后的引张形变、青藏高原和高喜马拉雅的大幅度抬升。大致低喜马拉雅范围即青藏高原南缘，现今构造活动与青藏高原和高喜马拉雅块断抬升相辅相成。流行的板块聚合动力学模式，即使早新生代发生过，晚新生代以来已经灯熄。东亚大陆现代形变与地震活动的驱动力不可能源于青藏高原南缘被动挤压，而是取决于与高原隆起相关的深部主动动力学过程     

Geometrical textures of faults，evolution of physical field and instability characteristics

Ｇｅｏｍｅｔｒｉｃａｌｔｅｘｔｕｒｅｓｏｆｆａｕｌｔｓ，ｅｖｏｌｕｔｉｏｎｏｆｐｈｙｓｉｃａｌｆｉｅｌｄａｎｄｉｎｓｔａｂｉｌｉｔｙｃｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｉｓｔｉｃｓＪＩＮＭＡ（马瑾），ＳＨＥＮＧ－ＬＩＭＡ（马胜利），ＬＩ－ＱＩＡＮＧＬＩＵ（刘力强），Ｚ...     

A comparison of single‐run pushover analysis techniques for seismic assessment of bridges

Traditional pushover analysis is performed subjecting the structure to monotonically increasing lateral forces with invariant distribution until a target displacement is reached; both the force distribution and target displacement are hence based on the assumption that the response is controlled by a fundamental mode, that remains unchanged throughout. However, such invariant force distributions cannot account for the redistribution of inertia forces caused by structural yielding and the associated changes in the vibration properties, including the increase of higher‐mode participation. In order to overcome such drawbacks, but still keep the simplicity of using single‐run pushover analysis, as opposed to multiple‐analyses schemes, adaptive pushover techniques have recently been proposed. In order to investigate the effectiveness of such new pushover schemes in assessing bridges subjected to seismic action, so far object of only limited scrutiny, an analytical parametric study, conducted on a suite of continuous multi‐span bridges, is carried out. The study seems to show that, with respect to conventional pushover methods, these novel single‐run approaches can lead to the attainment of improved predictions. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

近距离上层隧道施工对下层隧道的扰动影响

针对近距离上层隧道施工时给下层隧道稳定性造成扰动影响的现状,基于简支土体梁力学模型,研究下层隧道顶部在周期性扰动力作用下的系统振动特性,得到顶部垂直位移的动态响应数学表达式,为定量掌握最大位移峰值的大小与出现时刻提供理论依据,指出考虑振动因素时上下层隧道安全距离的确定方法。结合具体算例探索扰动力等因素对最大位移的作用规律,结果表明:扰动力振幅和隧道跨度分别增加1倍和2倍时,最大位移峰值相应增大1倍和23.9倍;隧道层间垂距和土体弹性模量分别增加2倍和3倍时,最大位移峰值相应减小88.2%和70%。当主要影响因素变化时,最大位移的波动大周期延长、波动震荡性加剧,特别是峰值处的震荡幅值增大,隧道顶部稳定性受到明显影响。     

青海钻孔应变映震效能研究

利用青海省6套YRY-4分量钻孔应变仪2007—2015年的观测资料,将该地区符合扫描范围的地震从震前异常和同震特征两方面进行研究。结果显示:湟源、德令哈分量钻孔应变差应变曲线地震前大多有短期超差异常;分量钻孔应变仪的同震响应幅度与震级、震中距都有关。同一地震,多台仪器多数情况同震响应幅度与震中距成反比,少数成正比;一般单台仪器同震响应幅度与地震震级成正比关系,震级越大同震响应幅度越大;分量钻孔应变仪的同震响应延迟时间大多与地震震中距成正比,震中距越远同震响应延迟时间越长;分量钻孔应变仪同震响应持续时间与震级基本成正比,震级越大同震持续时间越长。