Seismic waves and correlation autoregressive processes

Stochastic models appropriate for seismic records of earthquakes and underground nuclear explosions are considered and a selective review of the existing models is presented. Special models of stationary processes, periodically correlated processes, and uniformly modulated stationary processes as well as a new class called correlation autoregressive processes are studied. Relevant properties of correlation autoregressive processes are presented. It is shown that the successful models presently used are all subclasses of the correlation autoregressive processes. Shortcomings of the existing nonstationary models and merits of the new class for seismic wave modeling are discussed and directions for the further research and development are suggested. It is hoped that the model and the ideas introduced in this article will provide a stimulation for further examination of correlation autoregressive processes and will promote statistical modeling of seismic records.     

A new way to predict forecast skill

Forecast skill (Anomaly Correlated Coefficient, ACC) is a quantity to show the forecast quality of the products of numerical weather forecasting models. Predicting forecast skill, which is the foundation of ensemble forecasting, means submitting products to predict their forecast quality before they are used.Checking the reason is to understand the predictability for the real cases. This kind of forecasting service has been put into operational use by statistical methods previously at the National Meteorological Center (NMC), USA (now called the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)) and European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). However, this kind of service is far from satisfactory because only a single variable is used with the statistical method. In this paper, a new way based on the Grey Control Theory with multiple predictors to predict forecast skill of forecast products of the T42L9 of the NMC, China Meteorological Administration (CMA) is introduced. The results show: (1) The correlation coefficients between “forecasted“ and real forecast skill range from 0.56 to 0.7 at different seasons during the two-year period. (2) The grey forecasting model GM(1,8) forecasts successfully the high peaks, the increasing or decreasing tendency, and the turning points of the change of forecast skill of cases from 5 January 1990 to 29 February 1992.     

Accuracy assessment and refinement of the JGM-2 and JGM-3 gravity fields for radial positioning of ERS-1

ERS-1 radial positioning using the JGM-2 and JGM-3 gravity fields is assessed by analysing dual crossovers with TOPEX/Poseidon, neither field containing ERS-1 data. This method allows a more complete recovery of ERS-1 radial orbit error, specifically of the previously unattainable mean geographical error. The global analysis shows that the theoretical error derived from the JGM-2 covariance matrix is realistic and that JGM-3 represents a slight improvement, at least at the inclination of ERS-1. A latitudinal-based study in the southern ocean indicates possible weaknesses in both fields, notably for low and resonant geopotential orders m. A refinement of JGM-2, RGM-2, is undertaken through inclusion of ERS-1 and STELLA laser tracking and ERS-1 altimetry, reducing several of its deficiencies. Received: 14 May 1996 / Accepted: 17 February 1997     

瞬变电磁系统探测海底电导率的研究

选择在海洋工程与环境地质等方面有应用前景的海洋瞬变电磁法作为研究对象．研究了在高导海水中探测海底电导率的电磁感应理论,研制了共轴水平磁偶极-偶极装置（HRHR）的瞬变探测系统和解释软件．经东海海域实地试验,取得了良好效果,证实了瞬变电磁探测的有效性和方法优势．目前,它可作为海底地质填图的主要手段．经拓展后可用于海底分层和基底深度的探测．     

火山海岸与环境反馈——以海岛火山海岸为例

海南岛火山海岸以沿小火山口形成的海蚀地貌和全新世火山爆发使局部海湾抬升为海岸阶地、河口堵流并形成深切海湾以及促进了珊瑚礁发育为特征。火山活动改变了海岸带的地势、坡度、动力条件、沉积特征以及海岸演变趋势,火山海岸发育受到构造内动力、波浪、潮流、风化作用等外动力以及生物作用的多重影响。火山岩岩性和时代反映出北部湾湾底的现代拉张构造活动。夏威夷火山海岸的环境效应以造陆和板块移动形成岛链、近期熔岩流喷溢改变地貌和大气质量等为特征。现代日本鹿儿岛火山碎屑喷发物掩埋道路和建筑物并促发泥石流灾害,改变着火山海岸作用过程。对比研究火山海岸及其环境效应,及时预报并进而制定有效的防灾、减灾对策。     

渗透性参数非均质特征的研究进展

尺度效应、非一致性、随机性和结构性是渗透性参数的四大特征，通过分析比较独立离散参数法、连续相关参数法、离散相关参数法、条件模拟，认为地质统计学的理论与方法是非均质问题研究的理想工具，并提出了今后研究的趋势。     

苏北低地系统及其对海平面上升的复杂响应

苏北低地位处我国沿海中部，地面平均高程３ｍ左右，平均坡降多在０．２‰－２‰之间，河渠水面比降平均迷０．０４‰，极易发生洪涝灾害。未来海平面上升，将对这一洪涝灾害频发地区带为严重的危害。本文通过剖析苏北低地系统状态与结构，考察低地系统对海平面上升的复杂响应过程，以寻求系统对未来全球变化的积极适应方式。     

导线网可靠性分析和粗差探查

采用相关平差算法计算导线网中每个观测值的多余观测分量和各类观测值的内可靠性指标，按统计假设检验理论构成观测值的粗差检测统计量，经过探查指出可能含有粗差的观测值。最后给出内可靠性分析的结果，并提出导线网设计和施测要点建议     

瞬变电磁法对地下不同位置多个三维薄板探测能力的研究

以层状地层中多个位于不同位置和不同埋深的三维导电薄板为例,对瞬变电磁(TEM)法分辨地下多个三维异常体的能力进行了详细的分析和讨论.模型计算的结果表明,无论异常体与源的距离远近,TEM法对近地表的多个异常体分辨能力总是很好.当多个异常体在垂直方向排列时,TEM法对它们的探测能力最差;当它们以不同埋深沿测线方向排列时,埋深最浅和最近源的异常体最容易探测到;当夹在中间的异常体规模较小、埋深较大时,它的异常场容易被其它异常体所掩盖.总体上讲,无论在源下方还是在接收器下方,TEM法对水平方向多个异常体分辨能力优于垂向上的.     

用交错网格有限差分法计算三维频率域电磁响应

用交错网格有限差分法(SFD)，实现了三维频率域电磁场响应 的数值模拟. 该方法适用于任何方向的磁偶极子源. 经与解析方法、积分方程等 其他方法的计算结果对比表明，交错网格有限差分法结合散度校正和不完全乔累斯基分解预 处理的双共轭梯度迭代方法进行正演计算，速度快、精度高、结果稳定，能适应三维复杂介 质的数值模拟，为三维电磁反演奠定了基础.