Springtime Convective Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation and Interannual Variation of Its Intensity over the South China Sea and Western North Pacific

This study investigates characteristics of the convective quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO) over the South China Sea(SCS) and western North Pacific(WNP) in spring, and the interannual variation of its intensity. Convective QBWO over the WNP and SCS shows both similarities and differences. Convective QBWO over the WNP originates mainly from southeast of the Philippine Sea and propagates northwestward. In contrast, convective QBWO over the SCS can be traced mainly to east of the Philippines and features a westward propagation. Such a westward or northwestward propagation is probably related to n = 1 equatorial Rossby waves. During the evolution of convective QBWO over the WNP and SCS, the vertical motion and specific humidity exhibit a barotropic structure and the vertical relative vorticity shows a baroclinic structure in the troposphere. The dominant mode of interannual variation of convective QBWO intensity over the SCS–WNP region in spring is homogeneous. Its positive phase indicates enhanced convective QBWO intensity accompanied by local enhanced QBWO intensity of vertical motion throughout the troposphere as well as local enhanced(weakened) QBWO intensity of kinetic energy, vertical relative vorticity,and wind in the lower(upper) troposphere. The positive phase usually results from local increases of the background moisture and anomalous vertical shear of easterlies. The latter contributes to the relationship between the dominant mode and QBWO intensities of kinetic energy, vertical relative vorticity, and wind. Finally, a connection between the dominant mode and the sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean is demonstrated.     

VORTEX MOTIONS IN THE ATMOSPHERIC CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER

Large vortices with scales ranging from hundreds meters to tens of kilometers are generallyfound in the atmospheric convective boundary layer(CBL).These vortices play important roles in the vertical transport of momentum,heat,water vaporand other tracers in the boundary layer.On the basis of the view of interaction between theconvection in CBL and the gravity waves in the upper stable layer the authors developed aconvection-wave theory on the formation of large vortices.According to the theory thewavenumber spectrum of the large vortices mainly depends on the atmospheric conditions in bothof the upper and lower layers,such as wind speed,wind direction shear,stratification as well astemperature jump.In the present paper satellite image and weather data in a case of cold air outbreak over warmocean are analyzed to study every stage of the convective processes,such as cloud street,convective cell as well as their transformation.According to the theory the wavenumbercompositions for cloud street and convective cell are calculated,respectively,on the basis of theatmospheric conditions at every stage.The distributions of vertical motions,convergent band anddisturbed interface are obtained and compared with the cloud patterns in the convective processes.Thus the study seems to offer a likely explanation for the origin of large vortices in CBL.     

春季南亚高压在中南半岛上空建立与500hPa副高断裂的关系

利用NCEP／NCAR再分析资料及NOAA的OLR资料,研究了春季南亚高压在中南半岛上空建立与500hPa副高在孟加拉湾上空断裂的关系。结果表明,南亚高压建立之前,对流从“海洋大陆”向北推进,首先在中南半岛建立;而孟加拉湾地区由于青藏高原感热作用在对流层中低层形成一个反Hadley环流型的局地经圈环流,15°N附近500—700hPa有下沉运动中心,它抑制了孟加拉湾对流的建立,也不利于500hPa副高带断裂。南亚高压在中南半岛建立之后,位于高压中心西南侧的孟加拉湾上空出现一个强的辐散中心,孟加拉湾地区15°N附近的下沉运动消失,对流发展起来,降水量增加并释放大量潜热,非绝热加热中心位于500hPa,此时副高脊线断裂。因此,高层南亚高压建立所产生的辐散运动很可能对孟加拉湾上空500hPa副高带断裂及对流建立起到了触发作用。     

2003年淮河流域异常降水期间副热带高压的特征

采用NCEP资料以及NOAA卫星观测的OLR场资料,分析了2003年6-7月淮河流域暴雨期间西太平洋副热带高压的异常特征,结果表明西太副高相对偏北并且相对稳定;西太副高活动呈现出南北移动和东西进退的特征,但是东西进退明显于南北移动;副高脊线从低层到高层向北倾斜,并且在副高脊线附近的低层以下沉运动为主,在其上层以上升运动为主;中高纬度阻塞高压双阻型的建立、强劲而稳定少动的中纬度西风急流以及热带异常活跃的对流,均有利于副热带高压的相对稳定;淮河流域异常的持续降水,加强了对流潜热的释放,有利于副高的加强西伸。     

十堰一次强对流天气雷达回波特征

利用十堰714C天气雷达回波资料,结合其它天气资料,分析了2004年7月6日发生在十堰境内的强对流天气过程。结果表明,这次强对流天气是在有利的大尺度天气形势下产生的,局地环境CAPE指数大,水平风的垂直切变较强。强降雹由多单体强风暴造成,回波强度强,高度较高,顶部有旁瓣假回波,低层存在弱回波区（WER）。雹云移动明显右偏于高空风,属右移风暴,以右后侧和右前侧传播方式发展。强降雹由后一种传播方式造成,初始回波从半空生成,云顶高度较高,强中心位于云体中上层。     

太行山东麓地面辐合线特征分析

由于太行山地形的影响,在河北中南部,地面存在着几乎定常的风向辐合,局地对流天气往往发生在地面辐合线附近。利用2007和2008年5—9月地面加密风场资料,分析了河北省中南部地面辐合线的逐时演变特征以及与局地对流降水的关系。结果表明,地面辐合线傍晚时分在保定西南部生成以后,沿太行山逐渐扩展,自西向东缓慢推移,强度逐渐加强,早晨前后形成近乎闭合的气旋式环流。依据逐次过程最强降水时次的风场,将地面辐合线分为7类;单纯由地形引发的地面辐合线一般不产生降水,即使造成降水,量级也比较小,也就是说,一般地形导致的辐合不会直接触发对流,只有在有利的天气系统配合下,才会产生较为剧烈的对流天气。通过对2008年7月下旬连续冷涡天气个例逐日的地面辐合线分析表明,无论何种类型的辐合线,对流天气首先出现在辐合线附近;在大尺度的环流背景下,利用逐时风场、温度场的发展演变,可以定性判断对流天气出现的时间、落区,以及强度等。     

雷暴云的集合预报技术及其应用

以中尺度非静力WRF模式的格点预报结果作为云模式的初值集合,经云模式的多初值雷暴预报及预报结果的集合分析,建立了雷暴云的集合预报方法。将该方法应用于南京周边地区未来一天雷暴天气的特征预报,并利用南京夏季9个雷暴天气的多普勒雷达资料（SCIT,storm cell identification and tracking）进行预报效果的检验。结果表明,雷暴云的集合预报对研究区域内未来一天雷暴强度、分布预报效果较好,尤其对强雷暴的分布有较强的预警预测能力。此外,雷暴持续时间概率密度分布的集合预报产品,在雷暴影响范围概率预报上的应用,提高了雷达对雷暴的预警监测能力。     

一次西南涡引发MCC暴雨的卫星云图和多普勒雷达特征分析

利用常规观测资料、自动站资料、卫星资料和多普勒雷达资料,对2008年6月30日至7月1日发生在滇东北和四川盆地南部一次暴雨天气过程的分析发现,850hPa四川盆地南部西南涡引发的中尺度对流复合体（mesoscale convective complex,MCC）是暴雨的直接影响系统,700hPa青藏高原东南侧西南涡引发的中尺度对流云团并入MCC后导致MCC迅速加强并向西移动。MCC生成于对流层高层急流出口区左侧强辐散区和低层强辐合区。雷达回波上“人”字形回波、平行短带回波和逆风区的出现说明MCC内部存在多个β中尺度对流系统,直接造成多个暴雨中心。MCC成熟阶段表现出中低层辐合和高层辐散的动力特征,其前沿中层以下有强气流流入,以上则有强气流流出。MCC消散阶段从低层到高层都有强西南气流进入,相应气流辐合减弱,失去中尺度组织结构。     

东亚强对流云的季节变化及其与对流层顶关系初探

利用GMS 5/VISSR长波红外（10.5～11.5 μm）和水汽通道（6.5～7.0 μm）探测原理的差异, 结合红外阈值法和区域平滑滤波技术提取 “高、 厚、 密” 强对流云, 分析了东亚强对流云活动的空间分布及其季节变化规律。GMS 5卫星视场内各个子地区强对流云云顶温度与发生频率的季节变化基本为单峰单谷型, 前者夏低冬高, 但不同地区引起的原因不同。强对流云发生频率36°N以北夏低冬高, 以南夏高冬低。东亚对流层顶由冬春至夏秋升高, 对流层顶气压随之降低, 而对流层顶温度的季节变化以45°N为界, 北部夏高冬低, 南部夏低冬高。作者所研究的东亚几个子地区强对流云与对流层顶季节变化位相基本保持同步, 2000年强对流云云顶温度与对流层顶温度的月均值相关系数达0.757, 强对流云云顶温度与对流层顶气压的月均值相关系数达0.901, 对流层顶温度比强对流云云顶温度平均低9.42℃。强对流云的发展受对流层顶制约作用显著。