Stratigraphy of a Lateglacial lake basin sediment sequence at Turret Bank,upper Glen Roy,Lochaber: implications for the age of the Turret Fan

New lithostratigraphical, pollen-stratigraphical and tephrostratigraphical data are presented for a sediment sequence at Turret Bank, a site that lies close to the confluence of the River Turret with the River Roy in Lochaber, the western Scottish Highlands. The site is also adjacent to the inner margin of a major gravel fan, the Glen Turret Fan, the age of which has been debated and has a crucial bearing on the overall sequence of events in Glen Roy, especially concerning the maximum limit of Loch Lomond Readvance (Younger Dryas) ice. Several lines of evidence point to the sediment sequence at Turret Bank having been wholly deposited during the Loch Lomond Stadial-early Holocene transition: (i) the pollen sequence is typical for this transitional period; (ii) varved deposits preserved in the sequence bear a strong resemblance to mid-Stadial varves in a regional master varve scheme for Glen Roy and vicinity (the Lochaber Master Varve Chronology); and (iii) an early Holocene tephra – the Askja-S Tephra – is preserved within the sequence. Some limitations with the new data are considered, but it is concluded that the coherent integration of lithostratigraphic, geomorphological, pollen-stratigraphical and tephrostratigraphical data point to the likelihood that Loch Lomond Readvance ice extended to the inner margin of the Glen Turret Fan, and that the fan was probably constructed by glacial meltwaters at this time.     

The gravel fans of upper Glen Roy,Lochaber, Scotland: their importance for understanding glacial,proglacial and glaciolacustrine dynamics during the Younger Dryas cold period in an Atlantic margin setting

Over the past 200 years significant research effort has gone into explaining the origin of the obvious former shorelines in Glen Roy (the so-called “Parallel Roads”). The large gravel deposit at the mouth of Glen Turret has attracted similar interest, but a solution to its origin and age remains contested: the same applies to the associated gravel fans in upper Glen Roy. This paper presents the results of systematic mapping and instrumental levelling of these features and new evidence from two previously unrecorded gravel fans in the nearby Allt Chonnal valley. Interpretation of altitudinal and lithofacies data indicates that all the fans (including the one at the mouth of Glen Turret) were deposited in a series of ice-dammed lakes during the Loch Lomond Stadial (Younger Dryas). The largest gravel fans were deposited in the shallow lake heads of the 260 m, 325 m and 350 m lakes in upper Glen Roy, infilling these areas to the extent that deposition was in part subaerial. The absence of foreset bedding from the deposits is explained by the relatively shallow depth of lake waters, which inhibited development of classic Gilbert-type deltas and encouraged Hjulström-type fans. The previous assumption that gravel deposition into the 325 m and 350 m lakes was relatively limited is shown to be erroneous. The Allt Chonnal gravel fans, deposited into these lakes, have an estimated combined volume of 6,000,000 m³ deposited in about 200 years. Significant gravel deposition into these former lakes continued at least until glaciers started to retreat in Glen Roy. When glacier retreat began, gravel deposition was reduced by over 85%. This research also concludes that the glacier which deposited the Turret fan emanated from Glen Gloy, supplied not only by ice from the south but also from ice that spilled into Glen Gloy from the adjacent Great Glen. The Loch Lomond Stadial (LLS) ice cap mapped in the Monadhliath Mountains was connected to the west Highland ice cap, which at the time filled the Great Glen. Regional equilibrium line altitude (ELA) estimates, based solely on the Monadhliath LLS ice cap evidence, may therefore be altitudinally too high.     

土力学理论的发展和面临的挑战

随着社会经济的不断发展,土力学所要分析和处理问题的范围越来越广,问题本身也越来越深入和复杂。这些问题主要是由于土与环境的相互作用而产生的。为了分析和处理这些问题,经典土力学需要拓宽和深入发展,它应该包含一些新的现象和新的变量以及相应的新理论。论述了土力学所面临的三大挑战,即①没有严格、统一和完备的土力学理论;②对更具一般意义的非饱和土的行为的研究不够充分,现有的认识也不完善;③没有在多种环境作用下土的统一和完备的多场耦合理论。还论及了其他一些超出经典土力学范围的问题。     

Updating of Population Parameters and Credibility of Discriminant Analysis

The uncertainty of classification in discriminant analysis may result from the original characteristics of the phenomena studied, the approach of inferring population parameters, and the credibility of the parameters which are estimated by geologist or statistician. A credibility function and a significance function are proposed. Both can be used to appraise the uncertainty of classification. The former is involved with the uncertainty resulting from the errors in the reward-penalty matrix, while the latter may be involved with the uncertainty resulting from the original characteristics of the phenomena studied and the statistical approach. Inappropriate classified results may be originated from the bias estimates of population parameters (mean vector and covariance matrix), which are estimated by bias samples. These bias estimates can be updated by constraining the varying region of the mean vector. The equations for updating Bayesian estimates of the mean vector and the covariance matrix are demonstrated if the mean vector is restricted to a subregion of the entire real space. Results for a gas reservoir indicate that the discriminant rules based on the updated equations are more efficient than the traditional discriminant rules.     

基于融合资料的天津短时强降水环境物理量可信度及特征分析

针对2009—2017年6～9月天津地区140次短时强降水天气过程,将NCEP FNL(1°×1°)全球分析资料与地面气象观测数据融合,计算天津地区短时强降水的融合物理量参数,通过偏差和偏差区间占有率等分析融合物理量的可信度,并在大量样本统计基础上给出不同月份的短时强降水环境参量特征和指标。结果表明：(1)基于NCEP FNL分析资料与地面气象观测数据的融合物理量在短时强降水潜势判断中具有较高的可信度,融合CAPE、LI、LCL平均绝对误差分别为260.7J.kg_^-1、0.9℃、14hPa,与融合前的NCEP FNL物理量相比绝对误差分别降低了58.1%、48.0%、49.0%。(2)不同月份短时强降水发生所必需的水汽、热力和能量等环境条件差异显著,TPW、K、LI、CAPE、LCL和Z₀均呈现明显的月变化特征。(3)若以75%短时强降水发生的环境条件作为预报指标,7～8月TPW、K、CAPE、Z₀、LCL物理量阈值极为相近,短时强降水多发生在TPW>45kg.m_^-2、K>32℃、CAPE>835J.kg_^-1、LCL>882 hPa、Z₀>4300m条件下,6月物理量指标要求明显降低,如TPW>34kg.m_^-2、K>30℃、CAPE>353J.kg_^-1、LCL>880 hPa、Z₀>3900m,9月预报指标要求则最低。     

Statistical Methods for Jointly Estimating the Decay Constant of 40K and the Age of a Dating Standard

To simultaneously evaluate the decay constant of ⁴⁰K () and the age of a standard (t _std) using isotopic data from geologic materials, we applied a series of statistical methods. The problem of estimating the most probable intercept of many nonlinear curves in and t _std space is formulated by an errors-in-variables nonlinear regression model. Then a maximum likelihood method is applied to the model for a point estimate, which is equivalent to the nonlinear least square method when measurement error distributions are Gaussian. Uncertainties and confidence regions of the estimates can be approximated using three methods: the asymptotic normal approximation, the parametric bootstrap method and Bonferroni confidence regions. Five pairs of published data for samples with ages from 2 ka to 4.5 Ga were used to estimate and the age of Fish Canyon sanidine (t _FCs). The statistical procedure yields most probable estimates of (5.4755 ± 0.0170 × 10^–10 (1)/year) and t _FCs (28.269 ± 0.0661 (1) Ma) which are in between previously published values. These results indicate the power of our approach to provide improved constraints on these parameters, although the preliminary nature of some of the input data require further review before the values can be adopted.     

改进的有序聚类分析法提取时间序列转折点

对有序聚类分析法进行改进,使其更加适用于序列转折点或突变点的提取。分别将传统和改进的有序聚类方法应用在长江下游区域年平均气温系列的转折点提取中,对两种方法提取的结果与滑动平均的结果进行比较,发现改进的方法更接近于实际。对提取点分别采用秩和检验法、游程检验法进行检验,均通过了α=0.05的置信度检验,改进后的置信度比改进前更高。     

Altitudinal levels and altitudinal limits in high mountains

In lowlands climate-specific processes due to weathering and erosion are dominant, whilst the geomorphology of mountains is dependent on the geologic-tectonic structure, i.e., the energy of erosion that increases according to the vertical. The expression "extremely high mountains" has been established as the extreme of a continuous mountain classification. It has to be understood in terms of geomorphology, glaciology and vegetation. Correspondence of the planetary and hypsometric change of forms is of great value as synthetic explanation. It is confirmed with regard to vegetation, periglacial geomorphology and glaciology. Due to the world-wide reconstruction of the snowline its paleoclimatic importance increases, too. Apart from lower limits the periglacial and glacial altitudinal levels also show zones of optimum development and climatic upper limits in the highest mountains of the earth. According to the proportion of the altitudinal levels a classification as to arid, temperate and humid high mountains has been carried out.     

萨拉乌苏河流域第四系岩石地层及其时间界限

根据对位于鄂尔多斯高原毛乌素沙漠东南部边缘萨拉乌苏河流域的米浪沟湾剖面岩石地层划分并结合年代测试结果,提出了如下一些看法1以组为代表的岩石地层单元的形成时间为离石组>150000aB.P.、萨拉乌苏组150000-75000aB.P.、城川组75000-10000aB.P.、大沟湾组-滴哨沟湾组10000-1000aB.P.、范家沟湾组1000aB.P.-现代.2以上岩石单元与黄土高原相同时期层系具有较好的对比关系离石组\萨拉乌苏组、萨拉乌苏组\城川组和城川组\大沟湾组在地质时代上依次与L₂\S₁(时限为140000aB.P.)、S1\L1(时限为80000aB.P.)和L1\S0(时限为11000-10000aB.P.)大体是等时的.3如以过去全球变化而论,则目前已经可以确切地将米浪沟湾剖面诸岩石单元与深海和大陆冰川最近地质时期的若干氧同位素阶段进行对比,以“”表示为离石组MIS6、萨拉乌苏组MIS5、城川组MIS2～MIS4、大沟湾组+滴哨沟湾组+范家沟湾组MIS1.显然,这一对比关系清楚地说明,我国沙漠万年时间尺度环境演变,与黄土的研究结果一样,在很大程度上受到北半球冰期间冰期气候波动的影响.据此,可以按气候地层进行划分,将离石组、萨拉乌苏组、城川组、大沟湾组+滴哨沟湾组+范家沟湾组的时代分别置于里斯冰期、里斯-玉木间冰期(末次间冰期)、玉木冰期(末次冰期)和冰后期。     

构建GIS高可信服务计算环境探讨

基于面向服务的分布式空间信息支撑平台,从高可信网络计算环境、高可信空间信息、高可信软件、高可信计算平台4方面探讨构建GIS高可信服务计算环境的方法及其关键技术。为实现GIS空间信息存储的可靠性和发布的安全性,建立了基于角色访问控制权限的空间数据管理模型,并研究空间信息发布的中间件技术,展望构建GIS高可信服务计算环境的发展趋势和突破点。