The sensitivity of the next generation of lunar Cherenkov observations to UHE neutrinos and cosmic rays

We present simulation results for the detection of ultra-high energy (UHE) cosmic ray (CR) and neutrino interactions in the Moon by radio-telescopes. We simulate the expected radio signal at Earth from such interactions, expanding on previous work to include interactions in the sub-regolith layer for single dish and multiple telescope systems. For previous experiments at Parkes, Goldstone (GLUE), and Kalyazin we recalculate the sensitivity to an isotropic flux of UHE neutrinos. We find the published sensitivity for the GLUE experiment to be too high (too optimistic) by an order of magnitude, and consequently the GLUE limit to be too low by an order of magnitude. Our predicted sensitivity for future experiments using the Australia Telescope Compact Array (ATCA) and the Australian SKA Pathfinder (ASKAP) indicate these instruments will be able to detect the more optimistic UHE neutrino flux predictions, while the square kilometre array (SKA) will also be sensitive to all bar one prediction of a diffuse ‘cosmogenic’, or ‘GZK’, neutrino flux.Outstanding theoretical uncertainties at both high-frequency and low-frequency limits currently prevent a reliable estimate of the sensitivity of the lunar Cherenkov technique for UHE cosmic ray (CR) astronomy. Here, we place limits on the effects of large-scale surface roughness on UHE CR detection, and find that when near-surface ‘formation-zone’ effects are ignored, the proposed SKA low-frequency aperture array could detect CR events above 56 EeV at a rate between 15 and 40 times that of the current Pierre Auger Observatory. Should further work indicate that formation-zone effects have little impact on UHE CR sensitivity, observations of the Moon with the SKA would allow directional analysis of UHE cosmic rays, and investigation of correlations with putative cosmic ray source populations, to be conducted with very high statistics.     

Influence of thawed soil depth on rainfall erosion of frozen bare meadow soil in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau has a vast area of approximately 70×10⁴ km² of alpine meadow under the impacts of soil freezing and thawing, thereby inducing intensive water erosion. Quantifying the rainfall erosion process of partially thawed soil provides the basis for model simulation of soil erosion on cold-region hillslopes. In this study, we conducted a laboratory experiment on rainfall-induced erosion of partially thawed soil slope under four slope gradients (5, 10, 15, and 20°), three rainfall intensities (30, 60, and 90 mm h⁻¹), and three thawed soil depths (1, 2, and 10 cm). The results indicated that shallow thawed soil depth aggravated soil erosion of partially thawed soil slopes under low hydrodynamic conditions (rainfall intensity of 30 mm h⁻¹ and slope gradient ≤ 15°), whereas it inhibited erosion under high hydrodynamic conditions (rainfall intensity ≥ 60 mm h⁻¹ or slope gradient > 15°). Soil erosion was controlled by the thawed soil depth and runoff hydrodynamic conditions. When the sediment supply was sufficient, the shallow thawed soil depth had a higher erosion potential and a larger sediment concentration. On the contrary, when the sediment supply was insufficient, the shallow thawed soil depth resulted in lower sediment erosion and a smaller sediment concentration. The hydrodynamic runoff conditions determined whether the sediment supply was sufficient. We propose a model to predict sediment delivery under different slope gradients, rainfall intensities, and thawed soil depths. The model, with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.95, accurately predicted the sediment delivery under different conditions, which was helpful for quantification of the complex feedback of sediment delivery to the factors influencing rainfall erosion of partially thawed soil. This study provides valuable insights into the rainfall erosion mechanism of partially thawed soil slopes in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau and provides a basis for further studies on soil erosion under different hydrodynamic conditions.     

Assessing the hydrological and geomorphic behaviour of a landscape evolution model within a limits-of-acceptability uncertainty analysis framework

Landscape evolution models (LEMs) have the capability to characterize key aspects of geomorphological and hydrological processes. However, their usefulness is hindered by model equifinality and paucity of available calibration data. Estimating uncertainty in the parameter space and resultant model predictions is rarely achieved as this is computationally intensive and the uncertainties inherent in the observed data are large. Therefore, a limits-of-acceptability (LoA) uncertainty analysis approach was adopted in this study to assess the value of uncertain hydrological and geomorphic data. These were used to constrain simulations of catchment responses and to explore the parameter uncertainty in model predictions. We applied this approach to the River Derwent and Cocker catchments in the UK using a LEM CAESAR-Lisflood. Results show that the model was generally able to produce behavioural simulations within the uncertainty limits of the streamflow. Reliability metrics ranged from 24.4% to 41.2% and captured the high-magnitude low-frequency sediment events. Since different sets of behavioural simulations were found across different parts of the catchment, evaluating LEM performance, in quantifying and assessing both at-a-point behaviour and spatial catchment response, remains a challenge. Our results show that evaluating LEMs within uncertainty analyses framework while taking into account the varying quality of different observations constrains behavioural simulations and parameter distributions and is a step towards a full-ensemble uncertainty evaluation of such models. We believe that this approach will have benefits for reflecting uncertainties in flooding events where channel morphological changes are occurring and various diverse (and yet often sparse) data have been collected over such events.     

沙地节水渗灌自动控制系统的研制

文章介绍了一种沙地节水渗灌自动控制系统装置,主要叙述了渗灌装置的结构组成与连接方法,以及系统的软、硬件组成与仪器功能指标,整个系统设计简洁,成本低,可靠性好,能自动监测沙地水分上下限和渗坛水位上下限,根据所需信息系统自动向管道供水,大幅度减轻操作人员的劳动强度。采用微机技术有利于农业现代化管理,是我国节水渗灌农业值得推广的自动化控制系统     

Periglacial trimlines,former nunataks and the altitude of the last ice sheet in Wester Ross,northwest Scotland

High-level weathering limits separating ice-scoured topography from frost-weathered detritus were identified on 28 mountains in Wester Ross at altitudes of 700–960 m, and a further 22 peaks support evidence of ice scouring to summit level. Weathering limits are defined most clearly on sandstone and gneiss, which have resisted frost shattering during the Late Devensian Lateglacial, but can also be distinguished on schists and quartzite. Schmidt hammer measurements and analyses of clay mineral assemblages indicate significantly more advanced rock and soil weathering above the weathering limits. The persistence of gibbsite above weathering limits indicates that they represent the upper limit of Late Devensian glacial erosion. The regular decline of weathering-limit altitudes along former flowlines eliminates the possibility that the weathering limits represent former thermal boundaries between protective cold-based and erosive warm-based ice. The weathering limits are therefore interpreted as periglacial trimlines that define the maximum surface altitude of the last ice sheet. Calculated basal shear stresses of 50–95 kPa are consistent with this interpretation. Reconstruction of ice-sheet configuration indicates that the former ice-shed lay above 900 m along the present watershed, and that the ice surface descended northwestwards, with broad depressions along major troughs and localised domes around independent centres of ice dispersal. Extrapolation of the ice surface gradient and altitude suggests that the ice sheet did not overrun the Outer Hebrides, but was confluent with the independent Outer Hebrides ice-cap in the North Minch basin. Erratics located up to 140 m above the reconstructed ice surface are inferred to have been emplaced by a pre-Late Devensian ice sheet (or ice sheets) of unknown age. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A framework for the seismic assessment of existing masonry buildings accounting for different sources of uncertainty

The current formulation of Eurocode 8 Part 3 and the Italian building code for the seismic assessment of existing buildings accounts for epistemic (knowledge‐based) uncertainties by means of the identification of knowledge levels with associated values of the so‐called confidence factors, applied only as a reduction of material strengths. This formulation does not always produce consistent results and it does not explicitly account for other sources of uncertainty. The paper proposes a probabilistic methodology for the quantification of appropriately defined factors, allowing consideration of the different sources of uncertainty involved in the seismic assessment of masonry buildings by means of nonlinear static analyses. This simple approach, also including an alternative formulation of the confidence factors related with material properties, allows to obtain results which are consistent with the acquired level of knowledge and correctly account for the different sources of uncertainty without requiring to carry out any stochastic nonlinear analysis. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Riparian responses to reduced flood flows: comparing and contrasting narrowleaf and broadleaf cottonwoods

Abstract

To enable assessment of risks of water management to riparian ecosystems at a regional scale, we developed a quantile-regression model of abundance of broadleaf cottonwoods (Populus deltoides and P. fremontii) as a function of flood flow attenuation. To test whether this model was transferrable to narrowleaf cottonwood (Populus angustifolia), we measured narrowleaf abundance along 39 river reaches in northwestern Colorado, USA. The model performed well for narrowleaf in all 32 reaches where reservoir storage was <75% of mean annual flow. Field data did not fit the model at four of seven reaches where reservoir storage was >90% of mean annual flow. In these four reaches, narrowleaf was abundant despite peak flow attenuation of 45–61%. Poor model performance in these four reaches may be explained in part by a pulse of narrowleaf cottonwood expansion as a response to channel narrowing and in part by differences between narrowleaf and broadleaf cottonwood response to floods and drought.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor M. Acreman

Citation Wilding, T.K., Sanderson, J.S., Merritt, D.M., Rood, S.B., and Poff, N.L., 2014. Riparian responses to reduced flood flows: comparing and contrasting narrowleaf and broadleaf cottonwoods. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 605–617.     

Simulation of the Arabian Sea Tsunami propagation generated due to 1945 Makran Earthquake and its effect on western parts of Gujarat (India)

The 1945 Tsunami generated due to Makran Earthquake in the Arabian Sea was the most devastating tsunami in the history of the Arabian Sea and caused severe damage to property and loss of life. It occurred on 28th November 1945, 21:56 UTC (03:26 IST) with a magnitude of 8.0 (M _w), originating off the Makran Coast of Pakistan in the Arabian Sea. It has impacted as far as Mumbai in India and was noticed up to Karvar Coast, Karnataka. More than 4,000 people were killed as a result of the earthquake and the tsunami. In this paper an attempt is made for a numerical simulation of the tsunami generation from the source, its propagation into the Arabian Sea and its effect on the western coast of India through the use of a numerical model, referred to as Tunami-N2. The present simulation is carried out for a duration of 300 min. It is observed from the results that the simulated arrival time of tsunami waves at the western coast of India is in good agreement with the available data sources. The paper also presents run-up elevation maps prepared using Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) data, showing the possible area of inundation due to various wave heights along different parts of the Gujarat Coast. Thus, these results will be useful in planning the protection measures against inundation due to tsunami and in the implementation of a warning system.     

Genetic algorithm for fitting a mixed Bingham distribution to 3D orientations: a tool for the statistical and paleostress analyses of fracture orientations

The clustering of fracture orientations is important for tectonic studies and for geotechnical engineering. In this study, a real‐coded genetic algorithm was adopted to fitting a mixed Bingham distribution to orientation data by maximizing the log‐likelihood function of the distribution. The maximization is a difficult problem, because the function has multimodality and singularity. It was found that the algorithm was effective for this problem. Given the orientations of dilational fractures, the present method determines not only the stress axes and stress ratio of each of the fracture groups but also the maximum non‐dimensionalized fluid pressure at the time of their formation. In addition, the software calculates the 95 % error ellipses of the concentration axes. The present method found that the orientations of ore veins of the Akenobe Mine, SW Japan, should be partitioned into three clusters. It is shown that two of the groups had distinctive Zn and Sn contents, and that the ore fluids had overpressures only slightly greater than the minimum principal stress at the time of the deposition of Zn‐ and Sn‐rich veins.     

粉质黏土强度指标的水化学敏感性研究

通过对重塑粉质黏土的液、塑限和固结慢速直剪试验,探讨了粉质黏土液限、塑性指数及抗剪强度与不同浓度NaCl孔隙溶液的关系。试验结果表明,随着孔隙溶液浓度增加,液限随之减小,塑性指数表现出粉土的性质;不同竖向正应力下的强度随浓度变化表现出较大的差异,正应力较低时,强度不断减小,而正应力较高时,则强度不断增大,正应力介于二者之间强度则先降后升;内摩擦角随浓度增加而增大,最终趋于稳定;黏聚力先迅速减小后逐渐回升,且均为负值。其性质变化主要是因为扩散双电层、颗粒间作用力以及孔隙比发生了改变。基于Terzaghi的有效应力原理,对饱和粉质黏土固结慢速直剪试验测得的负值黏聚力进行了分析和讨论,认为渗透压力对黏聚力起了非常重要的作用,从而使黏聚力成为负值。