Estimation of quantiles and confidence intervals for the log-Gumbel distribution

The log-Gumbel distribution is one of the extreme value distributions which has been widely used in flood frequency analysis. This distribution has been examined in this paper regarding quantile estimation and confidence intervals of quantiles. Specific estimation algorithms based on the methods of moments (MOM), probability weighted moments (PWM) and maximum likelihood (ML) are presented. The applicability of the estimation procedures and comparison among the methods have been illustrated based on an application example considering the flood data of the St. Mary's River.     

Geotechnical properties of a chemically stabilized soil from Malaysia with rice husk ash as an additive

Summary The stabilization of Malaysian soil by mixing with rice husk ash, a locally available waste material, to improve its engineering properties is described. Stabilizing agents, i.e. cement and lime, were added to produce the reaction products which are responsible for the enhancement of the engineering properties. Based on the strength development, it seems that lime is the more effective stabilizing agent. However, the cheap waste material can be used as partial replacement for the more expensive cement in the cement-treatment of the soil. A durability study was carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of this stabilization method.     

Seismic Moment Tensor Resolution on a Local Scale: Simulated Rockburst and Mine-induced Seismic Events in the Kopanang Gold Mine, South Africa

Seismic records contain information about the effect of the source as well as the effect of wave propagation through the rock mass. The effect of wave propagation is usually not well known as only simplified models of geological structures are available. Therefore, the information about the source retrieved by inverting seismograms may include errors due to incomplete knowledge of the rock mass along the propagation path, which in turn cause a distortion in the calculated moment tensor (MT). The distortion of the MT on a local scale was observed by inverting records of a simulated rockburst conducted at the Kopanang gold mine in South Africa. A dominant isotropic component of the explosive characteristics was found from the inversion. The deviatoric components retrieved from the blast are spurious. A test of their stability indicated that they are not significant, assuming an uncertainty above 5% for velocities and 10% for attenuation within the homogeneous model available for the mine. Thus, the retrieval of the MT from records of local networks in mines using a homogeneous model of the rock mass seems to be feasible. However, the homogeneous model of the rock mass can only be applied to close stations, within a few kilometers of the source. The seismic records from distant stations were too complex to be modelled by a homogeneous rock mass. Records of six mine-induced seismic events recorded at the Kopanang gold mine were also inverted. A vertical linear dipole along the pressure (P) axis was found for three of the events, suggesting a pillar burst. The mechanism of two events contains an isotropic implosion together with a nearly vertical dip-slip, and seems to indicate a combination of a cavity collapse with a down dip-slip along a nearly vertical fault. One event corresponds to a dipole along the tensional (T) axis. However, it is vertical, thus its association with tensile faulting of the hangingwall is uncertain.     

三维地理信息系统中几何特征的误差模型

本文提出了三维地理信息系统中几何特征的误差模型。基于面表示的三维ＧＩＳ的特征被分为点、线段及线,该模型给出这些特征的一种误差描述,即围绕着这些几何特征的量测值的一个范围。     

5次中强震前河源地电台地电阻率的异常变化

１９７５￣１９９１年间,广东河源市新丰江水库区发生了５次ＭＬ４．７￣５．１级地震。距震中１０ｋｍ以内的河源黄子洞地电台记录到了震前不同程度的地电阻率异常变化。采用距平法消除年变干扰后异常延续时间一般为３个月左右,电阻率异常下降幅度在１％左右。利用《指南》中的震兆异常信度分析法确认其异常信度后,利用模糊信息处理法对异常判定地震三要素进行了计算,结果与实际基本符合。     

Pumpellyite–actinolite facies of the Sanbagawa metamorphism

The pumpellyite–actinolite facies proposed by Hashimoto is defined by the common occurrence of the pumpellyite–actinolite assemblage in basic schists. It can help characterize the paragenesis of basic and intermediate bulk compositions, which are common constituents of various low-grade metamorphic areas. The dataset of mutually consistent thermodynamic properties of minerals gives a positive slope for the boundary between the pumpellyite–actinolite and prehnite–pumpellyite facies in P–T space. In the Sanbagawa belt in Japan, the mineral parageneses of hematite-bearing and -free basic schists, as well as pelitic schists have been well documented. The higher temperature limit of this facies is defined by the disappearance of the pumpellyite+epidote+actinolite+chlorite assemblage in hematite-free basic schists with X_Fe3+ of epidote around 0.20–0.25 and the appearance of epidote+actinolite+chlorite assemblage with X^Ep_Fe3+≤0.20. In hematite-bearing basic schists, there is a continuous change of paragenesis to higher grade, epidote–glaucophane or epidote–blueschist facies. In pelitic schists, the albite+lawsonite+chlorite assemblage does occur but only rarely, and its assemblage cannot be used to determine the regional thermal structure. The lower temperature equivalence of the pumpellyite–actinolite assemblage is not observed in the field. The Mikabu Greenstone complex and the northern margin of the Chichibu complex, which are located to the south of the Sanbagawa belt, are characterized by clinopyroxene+chlorite or lawsonite+actinolite assemblages, which are lower temperature assemblages than the pumpellyite+actinolite assemblage. These three metamorphic complexes belong to the same subduction-metamorphic complex. The pumpellyite–actinolite facies or subfacies can be useful to help reveal the field thermal structure of metamorphic complexes     

论船舶物权变动登记之公信力

船舶物权变动采用登记公示方式,登记应当具有公信力,登记公信力制度的确立旨在保护第三人之利益。登记是制度创设,应该承认船舶登记的公信力以满足该制度之宗旨。船舶登记的对抗效力不影响登记公信力的存在,但该登记的公信力受到限制。     

Comparison of bootstrap confidence intervals for an ANN model of a karstic aquifer response

Following many applications artificial neural networks (ANNs) have found in hydrology, a question has been rising for quantification of the output uncertainty. A pre‐optimized ANN simulated the hydraulic head change at two observation wells, having as input hydrological and meteorological parameters. In order to calculate confidence intervals (CI) for the ANN output two bootstrap methods were examined namely bootstrap percentile and BCa (Bias‐Corrected and accelerated). The actual coverage of the CI was compared to the theoretical coverage for different certainty levels as a means of examining the method's reliability. The results of this work support the idea that the bootstrap methods provide a simple tool for confidence interval computation of ANNs. Comparing the two methods, the percentile requires fewer calculations and yields narrower intervals with similar actual coverage to that of BCa. Overall, the actual coverage was proved lower than desired when not modeled points were present in the data subset. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Statistical significance of modal parameters of bridge systems identified from strong motion data

Modal parameters of structural systems have commonly been determined using system identification (SI) methods for damage detection and health monitoring. For determining the deterioration of the integrity of structural systems correctly, modal parameters of a healthy structure have to be obtained with adequate certainty so that these parameters can be used as reliable references for the healthy system to compare with those of the damaged system. In this study, the statistical significance of modal parameters identified using strong motion time histories recorded on two bridge structures is assessed. The confidence intervals of identified modal frequencies and damping ratios are obtained using Monte Carlo simulations and sensitivity analyses in conjunction with eigenrealization algorithm. The dependence of the statistical bounds on model parameters is examined. The effect of using different number of sensors on the statistical significance is evaluated using simulated time history data from a validated finite element model of a bridge. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Détermination indirecte des limites d'Atterberg par gravimétrie dynamique

This study presents a new method for Atterberg limits measurements using dynamic drying. Indeed, for some polluted clays, or clay mixtures, classical methods cannot be used. The principle of liquid $(W_{\mathrm{L}})$ and plasticity $(W_{\mathrm{P}})$ limits determination by this method is presented. Experimental values for classical clays are close to those obtained with Casagrande's methods, allowing for larger physical mud characterisation. To cite this article: C. Proust et al., C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).