苏里格气田致密砂岩储层物性下限值的研究

苏里格气田东区盒8层段属致密砂岩层,具有低孔低渗的特点。采用经验统计法、孔隙度—渗透率交会法、岩芯饱和度分析法、最小孔喉半径法、有效孔隙百分含量法、相渗分析法和试气法等7种方法综合分析,确定了苏东地区盒8层段孔隙度和渗透率下限值分别为4.7%和0.08×10-3μm2,并运用试气结论和试气产量证明了储层物性下限值的合理性。     

基于Bootstrap方法确定岩土参数的标准值

提出一种基于Bootstrap重抽样技术的岩土参数标准值确定方法,将置信概率为95%对应的重抽样均值作为标准值,并通过一组实测土体的抗剪强度参数阐述标准值的确定方法和过程。对两个实例进行研究,分别探讨Bootstrap重抽样次数(即Bootstrap样本集大小)和原始数据的变异性对标准值精度和收敛性的影响。结果表明,基于Bootstrap方法确定的岩土参数标准值具有较好的收敛性和精度,当重抽样次数不小于100时,Bootstrap重抽样次数和原始样本的变异性对标准值的收敛性和精度不会产生显著影响。该方法能够有效地处理岩土参数的不确定性问题。     

云南地震动反应谱特性V_(max)/a_(max)值的研究

本文通过对发生在云南省的澜沧—耿马等几次地震记录的分析,提出了适合云南实际的地震动反应谱特性Ｖｍａｘ／ａｍａｘ值的ｗｅｉｂｕｌ模型,并求出了平均值和标准差,对于样本不足的给出了ｍ,η的置信区间,可为我国、特别是云南省的工程建设提供基础依据。     

Latitudinal gradients and poleward expansion of mangrove ecosystems in South Africa: 50 years after Macnae’s first assessment

Mangroves occur in South African estuaries at their poleward distribution limits, extending into temperate habitats. In 1963, William Macnae published the first comprehensive assessment of mangrove swamps in South Africa and made firsthand observations of these mangrove ecosystems. This article reassesses South African mangrove habitats, highlighting changes since Macnae’s assessment, through a literature review of research done in the past 50 years and using the results of a dedicated mangrove survey spanning 2012–2017. Until now, changes have been recorded mostly for mangrove vegetation, including a change in mangrove cover and a poleward shift of mangrove species. While some mangrove-associated fauna have disappeared from most sites (e.g. the gastropod Terebralia palustris), others, such as fiddler crabs, have spread farther south. The effects of decreasing diversity with an increase in latitude were not observed along the South African coast. Instead, habitat quality and estuarine mouth state seem to exert greater influence on species diversity in the mangroves, and a poleward shift in species distribution is now evident not just for the mangrove flora but for the fauna as well. South African mangrove research needs to include a continuous monitoring plan, especially if we are to contribute to global knowledge on blue carbon, the effects of sea-level rise, and the resilience of the mangrove ecosystem.     

ANALYSIS OF THE CONFIDENCE INTERVAL OF THE COMPOSITE FAULT PLANE SOLUTION OBTAINED FROM THE GRID SEARCH METHOD: AN EXAMPLE OF SOUTHERN JIANGXI PROVINCE

In order to quantitatively analyze the reliability of the composite fault plane solution of small earthquakes, the Bootstrap sampling technique is introduced into the grid search method, and the ideas and methods for calculating the confidence interval from the grid search method are proposed initially. There are two sample sets that can represent the characteristics of the composite fault plane solution. One sample set is the optional solutions obtained by the grid search method and the other is obtained by the Bootstrap sampling technique. Then, we calculate the confidence intervals of the two sample sets (P, B and T axis). The research results of tectonic stress field in southern Jiangxi Province are relatively few. In view of such situation, we use the focal mechanism solutions of small earthquakes to calculate and analyze the composite fault plane solution and the confidence interval. This study shows that the confidence interval of the principal stress axis can be obtained well by both of the sample methods. The reliability of the results and the confidence range of the principal stress axis can be better represented by the confidence intervals. The middle principal stress in southern Jiangxi Province is nearly vertical, and the maximum and minimum principal stresses are nearly horizontal. The direction of maximum principal stress is NWW-SEE and that of the minimum principal stress is NNE-SSW. And, the area is in a strike-slip stress regime. The results are consistent with previous studies, and the stress directions obtained by previous researchers are within the confidence interval calculated by this paper.     

RC剪力墙结构小震与中震设计对比及其抗震性能研究

近年来,国内学者强调对于复杂和超限结构需进行中震性能设计,即在小震弹性设计后进行中震下的承载力复核及调整,然而中震设计能否提高结构整体抗震性能仍存在争议.为探究中震设计与小震设计方法的差异,本文依据现行规范,以设防烈度、结构高度和场地类别为变化参数,建立了48个典型RC剪力墙模型,并分别以"小震"、"高规中震"、"广东...     

The last ice sheet in Snowdonia

In Snowdonia there is a marked contrast between weathered summits, often with well‐developed blockfields or tors, and lower ice‐moulded terrain. The boundary is interpreted as a trimline marking the upper surface of the last ice sheet. This interpretation is supported by the presence of gibbsite, an end‐product of prolonged weathering, at the base of soils above but not below the trimline. The reconstructed ice surface reaches about 850 m above present sea‐level along an ice divide running NE–SW through the massif. There is no evidence to support the popular view that ice centred further south extended over Snowdonia, and breaching to form the major glacial troughs can be explained by the action of local ice. The field evidence presented here demonstrates that most models of the southern British and Irish Sea ice sheets are significantly flawed, the earliest being far too thick and the most recent far too thin. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Snow hydrology signatures for model identification within a limits‐of‐acceptability approach

Discharge simulation from snow‐dominated catchments seems to be an easy task. Any spatially explicit precipitation–runoff model coupled to a temperature‐index snow model generally yields simulations that mimic well the observed daily discharges. The robustness of such models is, however, questionable: in the presence of strong annual discharge cycles, small model residuals do not guarantee high explanatory power of the underlying model. This paper proposes a methodology for snow hydrological model identification within a limits‐of‐acceptability framework, where acceptable model simulations are the ones that reproduce a set of signatures within an a priori specified range. The signatures proposed here namely include the relationship between the air temperature regime and the discharge regime, a new snow hydrology signature that can be readily transferred to other Alpine settings. The discriminatory power of all analysed signatures is assessed with a new measure of their discriminatory power in the model prediction domain. The value of the proposed snow hydrology signatures and of the limits‐of‐acceptability approach is demonstrated for the Dischma river in Switzerland, whose discharge shows a strong temporal variability of hydrologic forcing conditions over the last 30 years. The signature‐based model identification for this case study leads to the surprising conclusion that the observed discharge data contains a multi‐year period that cannot be reproduced with the model at hand. This model‐data mismatch might well result from a yet to be identified problem with the discharge observations, which would have been difficult to detect in a classical residual‐based model identification approach. Overall, the detailed results for this case study underline the robustness of the limits‐of‐acceptability approach in the presence of error‐prone observations if it is applied in combination with relatively robust signatures. Future work will show whether snow hydrology signatures and their limits‐of‐acceptability can be regionalized to ungauged catchments, which would make this model selection approach particularly powerful for Alpine environments. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating sampling efficiency when estimating sediment source contributions to suspended sediment in rivers by fingerprinting

A general method is proposed which measures the increase in uncertainty when sampling effort is reduced in sediment fingerprinting. The method gives quantitative measures of how reduced sampling of material in one of the source areas, and/or of suspended sediment in streams, increases the uncertainties in the proportions of sediment contributed from the sources. Because the proportions of sediment contributed by the source areas must add to one, standard errors of the estimated proportions cannot be used as the usual measures of uncertainty: the paper uses instead the volume of the joint 95% confidence region for the estimated proportions. The paper shows how the uncertainty in this volume changes as numbers of suspended sediment samples, and the numbers of samples collected from cropped fields, are reduced by successive steps from 24 (20, in the case of cropped fields) to 16, 12, 8, 4 and 2 samples. As expected, uncertainty increases rapidly as the number of samples – whether of suspended sediment or from cropped fields – is reduced drastically. The pattern of increasing uncertainty is similar both for reductions in suspended sediment sampling, and for reduced sampling from cropped areas. When the number of suspended sediment samples, and the number of samples from cropped fields, are reduced to the same values, the increase in uncertainty from fewer suspended sediment samples was always slightly greater than the increased uncertainty from the reduced sampling of cropped areas, although this finding took no account of differences in the costs of field sampling and laboratory analysis. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.