计算非均匀地表通量的一种简化PDF及其应用

提出描述地表非均匀特性的简化概率密度函数（PDF）,它可代替各种具体的PDF用于求解次网格尺度平均通量而不影响其精度,这种简化PDF可直接加入陆面过程模式方程组中进行陆－气通量交换的数值试验。它对非均匀地表陆面过程参数化具有一定的普适性。本文仅讨论了对称分布的简化计算（非对称分布另文讨论）,列举了非均匀分布的观测事实,并以地表净红外辐射通量计算为例,详细验证了应用这种简化PDF的可行性和可靠性。     

A note on the applicability of log-Gumbel and log-logistic probability distributions in hydrological analyses: II. Assumed pdf

Abstract

Applicability of log-Gumbel (LG) and log-logistic (LL) probability distributions in hydrological studies is critically examined under real conditions, where the assumed distribution differs from the true one. The set of alternative distributions consists of five two-parameter distributions with zero lower bound, including LG and LL as well as lognormal (LN), linear diffusion analogy (LD) and gamma (Ga) distributions. The log-Gumbel distribution is considered as both a false and a true distribution. The model error of upper quantiles and of the first two moments is analytically derived for three estimation methods: the method of moments (MOM), the linear moments method (LMM) and the maximum likelihood method (MLM). These estimation methods are used as methods of approximation of one distribution by another distribution. As recommended in the first of this two-part series of papers, MLM turns out to be the worst method, if the assumed LG or LL distribution is not the true one. It produces a huge bias of upper quantiles, which is at least one order higher than that of the other two methods. However, the reverse case, i.e. acceptance of LN, LD or Ga as a hypothetical distribution, while the LG or LL distribution is the true one, gives the MLM bias of reasonable magnitude in upper quantiles. Therefore, one should avoid choosing the LG and LL distributions in flood frequency analysis, especially if MLM is to be applied.     

华北地区某工业场地土壤重金属分布特征

以华北地区某工业场地为研究对象,采用数理统计和地质统计学方法,对该场地土壤中重金属元素的空间分布特征及元素之间的相互关系进行研究。结果显示:各重金属元素在研究区已有一定程度的积累,其中Hg的平均含量高于国家《土壤环境质量标准》三级标准值和当地土壤背景值,污染最严重,是该场地土壤重金属污染的主要因子;各重金属元素污染程度整体上为Hg>Zn>Cd>Mn>Pb>Cu>Cr>As,其中As平均含量与当地土壤背景值接近。重金属元素Hg、Cd、Mn、Fe和Co具有中等程度的空间相关性,表明这些元素具有相同或相似的污染源。场地内1、4、8、9厂区的土壤重金属污染最严重,污染物种类与其特殊的工艺流程有一定关系,这为以后的污染防治工作提供了重要依据。     

特征分析模型构造原理

本文研究在矿产资源评价中适用于不同条件的,特征分析模型的构造原则和方法:建立一般特征分析模型的最大标度准则;变量权和样品关联度的不同算法和解释;基于不同相似性度量标准的矿床模型及建立广义矿化模型的方法;构造多维特征分析模型和进行定量资源评价的可能性。     

Relationship between cloud characteristics and radar reflectivity based on aircraft and cloud radar co-observations

Cloud properties were investigated based on aircraft and cloud radar co-observation conducted at Yitong, Jilin, Northeast China. The aircraft provided in situ measurements of cloud droplet size distribution, while the millimeter-wavelength cloud radar vertically scanned the same cloud that the aircraft penetrated. The reflectivity factor calculated from aircraft measurements was compared in detail with simultaneous radar observations. The results showed that the two reflectivities were comparable in warm clouds, but in ice cloud there were more differences, which were probably associated with the occurrence of liquid water. The acceptable agreement between reflectivities obtained in water cloud confirmed that it is feasible to derive cloud properties by using aircraft data, and hence for cloud radar to remotely sense cloud properties. Based on the dataset collected in warm clouds, the threshold of reflectivity to diagnose drizzle and cloud particles was studied by analyses of the probability distribution function of reflectivity from cloud particles and drizzle drops. The relationship between reflectivity factor (Z) and cloud liquid water content (LWC) was also derived from data on both cloud particles and drizzle. In comparison with cloud droplets, the relationship for drizzle was blurred by many scatter points and thus was less evident. However, these scatters could be partly removed by filtering out the drop size distribution with a large ratio of reflectivity and large extinction coefficient but small effective radius. Empirical relationships of Z-LWC for both cloud particles and drizzle could then be derived.     

苏里格大型致密砂岩气田储层结构与水平井提高采收率对策

在分析苏里格气田辫状河体系及储层结构特征的基础上,提出了剖面储量集中度的概念,建立了厚层块状型、垂向叠置泛连通型、分散局部连通型、分散孤立型4种砂体分布模式,探讨了不同储层结构下的水平井采出程度,提出了水平井提高采收率技术对策。研究结果表明,辫状河沉积体系复合有效砂体由于“阻流带”的存在,直井动用不完善,水平井能克服“阻流带”的影响,提高层内储量动用程度;但由于砂体多层状分散分布,水平井开发会导致纵向含气层系储量动用不充分,影响层间采出程度。对于剖面储量集中度高的厚层块状型、垂向叠置泛连通型储层,采用水平井整体开发,Ⅰ+Ⅱ类井比例达70%以上,可显著提高储量动用程度和采收率。对于剖面储量集中度低的分散局部连通型储层,采用直井井网开发后进行甜点式优选水平井井位加密部署,可提高采收率10%以上。     

台湾南湾秋末冬初水螅水母类的组成与分布

本文分析了2001年11月2～3日和12月8～10日在台湾南湾12个测站采集的表层和底层92份浮游动物样品,共鉴定水螅水母18种,其中8种是台湾周围海域的新记录.半口壮丽水母(Aglaura hemistoma)和四叶小舌水母(Liriope tetraphylla)为优势种,它们在11月和12月分别占水螅水母类总量的77％和94％以上.南湾水螅水母类的种类数和个体丰度均以12月(17种,3102×10~(-3)个/m~3)明显多于11月(6种,72×10~(-3)个/m~3).在冬季,外海高盐水团是影响水螅水母类分布的主要因素,盐度与水螅水母类多样性指数的相关关系显著,文章还比较了南湾与邻近海区水螅水母类的季节变化.     

DISTRIBUTIONS OF TOTAL, INORGANIC AND ORGANIC PHOSPHORUS IN THE SEDIMENTS NEAR THE HUANGHE RIVER ESTUARY

For some hundred surface sediment samples from five cores taken in two cruises near the Huanghe River Estuary, total phosphorus (TP (.inorganic phosphorus (IP (and organic phosphorus (OP)were determined.On the average, 527×10-6, 455×10~6 and 72×10-6 were found for TP,IP and OP for the surface sediments taken in the two cruises. The distribution of OP and IP was controlled by the sample particle size: OP content increased with the decreasing of the sample particle size, while the maximal value of IP was found in the silt fraction due to the existence of apatite in our samples. Vertical distributions reflected well the channel change of the Huanghe River. Results from the multiple regressions between the three forms of phosphorus and the percentages of different particle size agreed well with the analytical data.     

石河子市多层砖混结构房屋震害概率矩阵的建立

以概率理论为基础,采用震害指数法对石河子市重要建筑物中的多层砖混结构房屋进行抗力计算,通过抽样计算建立了石河子市砖混结构房屋按建筑年代分类的震害概率矩阵,又进一步综合这次普查得到的相关统计数据建立了修正的石河子市砖混结构房屋震害概率矩阵,从而为群体房屋的震害预测提供依据。