Forecasting ocean wave energy: The ECMWF wave model and time series methods

Recently, the technology has been developed to make wave farms commercially viable. Since electricity is perishable, utilities will be interested in forecasting ocean wave energy. The horizons involved in short-term management of power grids range from as little as a few hours to as long as several days. In selecting a method, the forecaster has a choice between physics-based models and statistical techniques. A further idea is to combine both types of models. This paper analyzes the forecasting properties of a well-known physics-based model, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Wave Model, and two statistical techniques, time-varying parameter regressions and neural networks. Thirteen data sets at locations in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the Gulf of Mexico are tested. The quantities to be predicted are the significant wave height, the wave period, and the wave energy flux. In the initial tests, the ECMWF model and the statistical models are compared directly. The statistical models do better at short horizons, producing more accurate forecasts in the 1-5 h range. The ECMWF model is superior at longer horizons. The convergence point, at which the two methods achieve comparable degrees of accuracy, is in the area of 6 h. By implication, the physics-based model captures the underlying signals at lower frequencies, while the statistical models capture relationships over shorter intervals. Further tests are run in which the forecasts from the ECMWF model are used as inputs in regressions and neural networks. The combined models yield more accurate forecasts than either one individually.     

海岛规划管理信息系统框架设计

为有效整合和管理各类海岛规划信息资源,针对海岛数据的特点,结合海岛规划管理和业务功能的需求,提出基于B/S和C/S的混合结构来构建规划管理信息系统的思想,设计了系统的基本框架和主要功能,探讨了系统实现过程中的关键技术,为海岛规划管理信息系统研发、综合管理和信息共享提供一个有效的解决方案。     

水中荧光计及其在海洋现场探测中的应用

本文描述了近几年来我们首次研制成功的３种类型的水中荧光计系统及其应用测量结果：１．用于水体混合扩散实验研究的水中荧光计，对罗丹明Ｂ浓度测量范围为１×１０－６～１×１０－１０ｇ／ｃｍ３；２．拖曳荧光计系统，能在２～８０ｍ水深内进行水平拖曳平稳地工作，拖曳速度为０～８ｋｎ，除检测罗丹明Ｂ外，还可检测无机悬浮物质的含量，检测范围为２～２０００ｍｇ／ｄｍ３；３．用于测量海中浮游植物体内叶绿素ａ浓度的水中荧光计，测量范围为１×１０－６～１×１０－９ｇ／ｃｍ３。用荧光法测量海中物质是近代新发展的一种简便、快速、灵敏度高、用途极其广泛的测量技术，有着重要的应用价值。     

Intercomparison of coastal area morphodynamic models

Five different coastal area morphodynamic models have been set up to run on the same offshore breakwater layout and an intercomparison carried out on the hydrodynamic and morphodynamic output produced by each scheme. In addition, the predicted morphodynamics was checked against available laboratory and field data.It is concluded that the models are capable of producing realistic estimates for the dominant morphodynamic features associated with offshore breakwaters. Coupling of the wave, current and sediment transport components of each scheme is shown to yield bathymetry which attains a state of equilibrium, unlike models which are based on the initial transport field only.     

青岛市大气污染时间序列分析预报方法研究

根据青岛市大气污染监测资料 ,采用时间序列分析方法 ,建立多种预报模型 ,有原序列周期外延法、均生函数周期外延法、均生函数逐步回归法以及自回归预报法等 ,最后提出一种综合预报模型。连续预报试验表明 ,综合预报模型优于任何个别预报模型 ,有较好的预报能力。利用马尔可夫概型对污染状态 (轻、中、重 )进行了分级预报试验 ,也获得良好的效果。     

Interpolation of wave heights

Remote sensing of waves often necessitates presentation of data in the form of wave height values grouped over large time intervals. This restricts their use to long-term applications only. This paper describes how such data can be made suitable for short-term usage in the field. Weekly mean significant wave heights were derived from their monthly mean observations with the help of different alternative techniques. These include model-free neural network schemes as well as model-based statistical and numerical methods. Superiority of neural networks was noted when the estimations were compared with corresponding observations. The network was trained using three different training algorithms, viz., error back propagation, conjugate gradient and cascade correlation. The technique of cascade correlation took minimum training time and showed better coefficient of correlation between observations and network output.