Analysis of geomagnetic field along seismic profile P4 of the International Project POLONAISE'97

This paper presents relative secular variations of the total intensity of the geomagnetic field against a background of results of magnetic anomaly interpretation along seismic profile P4. Profile P4 crosses a Variscan folding zone in the Paleozoic Platform (PLZ), the Trans-European Suture Zone (TESZ), and the Polish part of the East European Craton (EEC). Secular geomagnetic field variations measured in 1966–2000 along a line adjacent to seismic profile P4 were analysed. The study of secular variations, reduced to the base recordings at the Belsk Magnetic Observatory, showed that the growth of geomagnetic field at the East European Craton was slower than in the Trans-European Suture Zone and the Paleozoic Platform.A 2D crustal magnetic model was interpreted as a result of magnetic modelling, in which seismic, geological and geothermal data were also used. The modelling showed that there were significant differences in the magnetic model for geotectonic units, which had been earlier determined based on deep seismic survey data. It should be noted that a fundamental change of trend of the relative secular variations was observed at the slope of the Precambrian Platform. After analysing the geomagnetic field observed along profile P4, the hypothesis that the contact between Phanerozoic and Precambrian Europe lies in Poland's territory can be proven.     

Simulations of strong ground motion in SW Iberia for the 1969 February 28 (Ms= 8.0) and the 1755 November 1 (M∼ 8.5) earthquakes – II. Strong ground motion simulations

This is the second paper of a series of two concerning strong ground motion in SW Iberia due to earthquakes originating from the adjacent Atlantic area. The aim of this paper is to use the velocity model that was proposed and validated in the companion paper for seismic intensity modelling of the 1969 ( M _s= 8.0) and 1755 ( M = 8.5–8.7) earthquakes.
First, we propose a regression to convert simulated values of Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) into Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) in SW Iberia, and using this regression, we build synthetic isoseismal maps for a large ( M _s= 8.0) earthquake that occurred in 1969. Based on information on the seismic source provided by various authors, we show that the velocity model effectively reproduces macroseismic observations in the whole region. We also confirm that seismic intensity distribution is very sensitive to a small number of source parameters: rupture directivity, fault strike and fault dimensions. Then, we extrapolate the method to the case of the great ( M = 8.5–8.7) 1755 earthquake, for a series of hypotheses recently proposed by three authors about the location of the epicentral region. The model involving a subduction-related rupture in the Gulf of Cádiz results in excessive ground motion in northern Morocco, suggesting that the source of the 1755 earthquake should be located further west. A rupture along the western coast of Portugal, compatible with an activation of the passive western Iberian margin, would imply a relatively low average slip, which, alone, would could not account for the large tsunami observed in the whole northern Atlantic ocean. A seismic source located below the Gorringe Bank seems the most likely since it is more efficient in reproducing the distribution of high intensities in SW Iberia due to the 1755 earthquake.     

Sensitivity of soil parameters in unsaturated zone modelling and the relation between effective,laboratory and in situ estimates

Simulation of soil moisture content requires effective soil hydraulic parameters that are valid at the modelling scale. This study investigates how these parameters can be estimated by inverse modelling using soil moisture measurements at 25 locations at three different depths (at the surface, at 30 and 60 cm depth) on an 80 by 20 m hillslope. The study presents two global sensitivity analyses to investigate the sensitivity in simulated soil moisture content of the different hydraulic parameters used in a one‐dimensional unsaturated zone model based on Richards' equation. For estimation of the effective parameters the shuffled complex evolution algorithm is applied. These estimated parameters are compared to their measured laboratory and in situ equivalents. Soil hydraulic functions were estimated in the laboratory on 100 cm³ undisturbed soil cores collected at 115 locations situated in two horizons in three profile pits along the hillslope. Furthermore, in situ field saturated hydraulic conductivity was estimated at 120 locations using single‐ring pressure infiltrometer measurements. The sensitivity analysis of 13 soil physical parameters (saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_s), saturated moisture content (θ_s), residual moisture content (θ_r), inverse of the air‐entry value (α), van Genuchten shape parameter (n), Averjanov shape parameter (N) for both horizons, and depth (d) from surface to B horizon) in a two‐layer single column model showed that the parameter N is the least sensitive parameter. K_s of both horizons, θ_s of the A horizon and d were found to be the most sensitive parameters. Distributions over all locations of the effective parameters and the distributions of the estimated soil physical parameters from the undisturbed soil samples and the single‐ring pressure infiltrometer estimates were found significantly different at a 5% level for all parameters except for α of the A horizon and K_s and θ_s of the B horizon. Different reasons are discussed to explain these large differences. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

埋藏基岩地形对地震波动影响的模拟研究

本文以超声地震模型试验为基础,着重从地震波的强度方面来阐明埋藏基岩地形对地震波动的影响,提出了利用振动能量分析地震动问题的重要性,理论分析及实验结果表明,埋藏基岩地形对地震波动的影响表现为:一方面基岩面凹凸不平,致使基岩面上不同部位接收能量大小不同;另一方面,基岩的凹凸面对地震波产生汇聚与发散作用,这两方面共同作用的结果使得地表不同地点表现出不同的地震动强度。     

边坡离心模型试验中的降雨模拟研究

为了在离心机试验中模拟降雨引起的滑坡,设计和使用了一套降雨模拟系统。这套系统的构成主要是针对离心试验的特殊要求进行设计的。所采用的特殊技术可以均匀分配雨水,将雨滴的尺寸效益和科氏加速度引起的雨滴偏移最小化,实现了不同强度和历时的降雨模拟。通过一个降雨条件下砂土边坡的离心模型试验,成功应用了该套降雨模拟系统,研究了边坡中的降雨入渗过程。     

龙门山冲断带的隆升和川西前陆盆地的沉降

通过龙门山区和川西前陆盆地岩石样品的裂变径迹和镜质体反射率的测定和计算机模拟得出：１）松潘－甘孜褶皱带１０Ｍａ以来至少隆升了３－４ｋｍ，隆升速率最低为０．３－０．４ｍｍ／ａ；（２）龙门山逆冲推覆构造带１０Ｍａ以来至少隆升了５－６ｋｍ，隆升速率最低为０．０１６－０．０３２ｍｍ／ａ；（４）川西前陆盆地６０Ｍａ以来降升１－２ｋｍ，降升速率为０．０２８－０．０５ｍｍ／ａ；（５）１０Ｍａ以来北川－映秀－小关     

长江口年代际冲淤演变趋势预测与应对策略

受流域来水来沙条件变化及河口大型工程建设的综合影响,长江口呈现新的冲淤格局,为预测未来演变趋势,本研究基于前期研究中建立的长江口年代际冲淤演变预测模型(Delft3D),未来情景考虑不同来沙量条件和相对海平面上升速率。预测结果表明,到2035年长江口整体以冲刷为主,口内河段主槽和浅滩边缘冲刷较明显,仅高滩局部淤积;到2050年口内河段保持净冲刷状态,拦门沙地区在现状来沙量条件下略有淤积,但在极端低来沙量条件下转变为净冲刷状态,海平面上升对拦门沙地区冲刷具有一定抵消作用,但不会使冲淤状态产生本质改变。本研究分析认为,长江口局部区域未来冲淤趋势可能对河口综合治理与保护产生不利影响,针对新格局条件下的滩槽河势稳定、重要洲滩保护、重大工程安全评估、冲刷致灾研判以及海堤防护标准再评估等方面提出了对策建议,可为新时期长江口综合治理与可持续发展提供参考。     

地球化学填图与地球化学块体的谱系分析——编号系统及谱系树图的自动绘制

中国的地球化学填图研究工作起步较早并发展成为在国际上具有明显优势的学科。在此基础上提出的地球化学块体理论通过一定的编号系统绘制谱系树图来追索某元素在块体内部逐步浓集成矿的轨迹。通过谱系树图可以发现不同级别的子块体之间的亲缘关系,研究它们在时间和空间上的分布规律,结合已发现矿床的信息,预测潜在矿床的分布及其储量,从而指导找矿工作。提出了一种全新的谱系编号系统并编制了在计算机上自动绘制谱系树图的软件,同时实现了与原有编号系统的一致,解决了长期以来谱系树图不能自动绘制的问题,为地球化学块体的研究提供了一个很好的工具。     

An integrated hydrological model for rain‐induced landslide prediction

This paper describes an extension to the Combined Hydrology And Stability Model (CHASM) to fully include the effects of vegetation and slope plan topography on slope stability. The resultant physically based numerical model is designed to be applied to site‐specific slopes in which a detailed assessment of unsaturated and saturated hydrology is required in relation to vegetation, topography and slope stability. Applications are made to the Hawke's Bay region in New Zealand where shallow‐seated instability is strongly associated with spatial and temporal trends in vegetation cover types, and the Mid‐Levels region in Hong Kong, an area subject to a variety of landslide mechanisms, some of which may be subject to strong topographic control. An improved understanding of process mechanism, afforded by the model, is critical for reliable and appropriate design of slope stabilization and remedial measures. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.