基于SBAS-InSAR技术的金沙江流域沃达村巨型老滑坡形变分析

近年来突发性高位滑塌灾害日益频发,造成恶劣影响。这类地质灾害调查难度高、隐蔽性强,单靠群测群防和地质调查难以解决灾害的防治问题。随着雷达遥感卫星数据质量的不断提升,合成孔径干涉雷达测量(InSAR)中的SBAS-InSAR技术为特大型老滑坡灾前形变探测提供了新的技术途径。利用SBAS-InSAR技术对金沙江流域沃达村滑坡进行地表形变监测,获取了2017年3月30日至2019年9月28日内的形变结果,划定了强烈形变区(Ⅰ雷达)、均匀形变区(Ⅱ雷达),分析了滑坡复活区整体和局部滑塌地表形变速率、累积位移变化趋势和主裂缝形变情况。同时实地进行了工程地质调查和复核,发现老滑坡复活区变形迹象与SBAS-InSAR技术解译成果有着较好的一致性。表明SBAS-InSAR技术在复杂山区地质灾害监测预警领域有较为广阔的应用前景,为类似老滑坡监测预警提供了新的思路与借鉴。     

The impact of freshwater discharges on the ocean circulation in the Skagerrak/northern North Sea area. Part II: energy analysis

We perform eddy-permitting to eddy-resolving simulations of the Skagerrak/northern North Sea with a terrain-following numerical ocean model. We demonstrate that realistic representations of freshwater input are not required when the focus is on modelling mesoscale structures such as meanders and eddies. To arrive at this conclusion, we analyze the results using a recently developed energy diagnostic scheme to study the sensitivity to realistic representations of the lateral freshwater flux provided to the area from the Baltic Sea and by the major rivers. The scheme is suitable for analysis of growth of instabilities, and it has four basic instability processes prominent. We recognize both horizontal and vertical shear instabilities. There are two processes where average potential energy is converted to eddy kinetic energy, and they are related to the mean gradient in surface elevation and the mean lateral density gradient, respectively. The latter process is known as frontal instability. We demonstrate that the change in the eddy kinetic energy field is small, despite the large variations in the hydrographic properties from experiment to experiment. Moreover, generation of eddy activity appears at the same locations and with approximately the same strength regardless of actual representations of freshwater input. Furthermore, we find that vertical shear instability dominates the energy conversion processes in the Norwegian Coastal Current. Finally, we find that the areas off the northwest coast of Denmark recognized with enhanced eddy kinetic energy level is not caused by instability processes but eddy–eddy interaction rooted in variations in the sea level.     

青海互助一次局地强降水天气多普勒雷达回波分析

利用西宁CINRAD/CD多普勒天气雷达资料及自动站观测数据等从影响降水的主要因子方面探讨了2011年7月2日晚青海互助县一次局地强降水的成因,结果表明:多单体强回波带的活动是造成互助短时强降水的主要原因;速度图上强的辐合和逆风区是预报强降水的关键因子;垂直风廓线图上强烈的垂直风切变是不稳定能量积聚的表现,与强降水联系紧密;垂直累计液态含水量(VIL)和回波顶高也能为强降水预报提供有效信息。     

Confidence Evaluation of Medium-and Long-Term Earthquake Prediction by Use of the Analytical Hierarchy Process

This paper offers an approach to the relative confidence level of medium- and long-term earthquake prediction methods by use of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). We construct the criterion judgment matrices according to the results of an expert questionnaire known as the Delphi scheme. From the matrices we can obtain a scale for the relative preference or priority weight of each factor. The quantitative weights might be applied to make synthetic prediction of earthquake risk areas in the northern part of the North China seismic region.     

辽宁省“十五”数字化地磁数据分析系统

依据台站“十五”数字化地磁工作需求,结合地磁学科组运行管理的相关技术要求,研发辽宁省“十五”数字化地磁数据分析系统.该软件采用IDL作为开发语言,Oracle 10g数据库管理数据,主要包含用户管理模块、日志管理模块和数据管理模块3部分,具备数据实时处理、快速成像、操作简便、安全稳定等特点,可以有效解决目前台站地磁数据...     

Reliability bearing capacity analysis of footings on cohesive soil slopes using RFEM

Reliability analysis of bearing capacity of a strip footing at the crest of a simple slope with cohesive soil was carried out using the random finite element method (RFEM). Analyses showed that the coefficient of variation and the spatial correlation length of soil cohesion can have a large influence on footing bearing capacity, particularly for slopes with large height to footing width ratios. The paper demonstrates cases where a footing satisfies a deterministic design factor of safety of 3 but the probability of design failure is unacceptably high. Isotropic and anisotropic spatial variability of the soil strength was also considered.     

使用价值分析优化方法在功能-技术矩阵求解中的应用

功能-技术矩阵,经众多工作者的努力研究,已渐趋成熟与实用。但如何利用功能-技术矩阵构造在广义现代设计领域中适用的科学模式,解决多学科设计方案的组成与评价问题,还存在薄弱环节。本文利用\     

Recent progress in estimating uncertainty in geomagnetic field modeling

Abstract

Recent work pertaining to estimating error and accuracies in geomagnetic field modeling is reviewed from a unified viewpoint and illustrated with examples. The formulation of a finite dimensional approximation to the underlying infinite dimensional problem is developed. Central to the formulation is an inner product and norm in the solution space through which a priori information can be brought to bear on the problem. Such information is crucial to estimation of the effects of higher degree fields at the Core-Mantle boundary (CMB) because the behavior of higher degree fields is masked in our measurements by the presence of the field from the Earth's crust. Contributions to the errors in predicting geophysical quantities based on the approximate model are separated into three categories: (1) the usual error from the measurement noise; (2) the error from unmodeled fields, i.e. from sources in the crust, ionosphere, etc.; and (3) the error from truncating to a finite dimensioned solution and prediction space. The combination of the first two is termed low degree error while the third is referred to as truncation error.

The error analysis problem consists of “characterizing” the difference δz = z—z, where z is some quantity depending on the magnetic field and z is the estimate of z resulting from our model. Two approaches are discussed. The method of Confidence Set Inference (CSI) seeks to find an upper bound for |z—?|. Statistical methods, i.e. Bayesian or Stochastic Estimation, seek to estimate E(δz² ), where E is the expectation value. Estimation of both the truncation error and low degree error is discussed for both approaches. Expressions are found for an upper bound for |δz| and for E(δz² ). Of particular interest is the computation of the radial field, B., at the CMB for which error estimates are made as examples of the methods. Estimated accuracies of the Gauss coefficients are given for the various methods. In general, the lowest error estimates result when the greatest amount of a priori information is available and, indeed, the estimates for truncation error are completely dependent upon the nature of the a priori information assumed. For the most conservative approach, the error in computing point values of B_r at the CMB is unbounded and one must be content with, e.g., averages over some large area. The various assumptions about a priori information are reviewed. Work is needed to extend and develop this information. In particular, information regarding the truncated fields is needed to determine if the pessimistic bounds presently available are realistic or if there is a real physical basis for lower error estimates. Characterization of crustal fields for degree greater than 50 is needed as is more rigorous characterization of the external fields.     

旋转触探数学模型及其试验分析

通过对旋转触探用双螺旋探头的受力分析,建立了螺旋探头的贯入阻力和扭矩与贯入速度和转速,以及岩土的力学性能参数间的数学模型。结合数学模型和试验数据对旋转触探技术的影响因素进行了分析,为设计探头结构和进一步理解该技术的力学机理提供了理论依据。     

不同采出程度下石油组分变化特征

利用GHM烃分析仪对水驱模拟实验过程中不同阶段的采出原油进行分析,研究其原油组成的变化规律,探索原油组成与采出程度之间的内在关系。实验表明 :原油的采出程度与采出流体PV数之间具有良好的对应关系;随着采出程度逐渐提高,原油中正构烷烃的碳数范围及主峰碳数逐渐后移,原油的轻 /重比值呈现降低趋势。实验还证明,某些在空间上呈圆柱型、具有规则支链的分子比相近碳数的直链分子更容易被驱出。该项研究对于从微观角度深入探索驱油机理、提高原油采收率具有实际意义。