Characteristics of tropical cyclones making landfall on the Pacific coast of Mexico: 1970-2010

This study evaluates impacts from tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls on populated areas located along the Pacific Ocean coast of Mexico. The period of interest is from 1970 through 2010 and an international disaster database is used to identify the impact from the landfalling TCs. More than 30 landfall events occurred during the period; we examined the top 25 TCs based on rainfall accumulation, as well as the top 10 TC-related disasters based on the affected population. Each event resulted in affected population from 20 000 to more than 800 000. Strong winds and heavy rainfall, during periods of one to three days, are associated with property damage and loss of lives. Our results indicate that excessive rainfall accumulations and daily rates, over highly populated areas, are important elements associated with the occurrence of disasters. Six of the top 10 TC-related disasters occurred during El Niño and three during neutral conditions; however, looking at the top 25 events, 10 occurred during El Niño and 10 during neutral conditions. Three case studies that occurred during El Niño events (Liza in 1976, Pauline in 1997, and Lane in 2006) are documented in more detail as they affected areas with different population densities in the southern and northwestern coasts of Mexico.     

西藏当雄错盐湖卤水冬季日晒蒸发实验研究

西藏当雄错盐湖位于藏北高原腹地西南侧,其水化学类型属典型的中度碳酸盐型,具有很好的工业开发前景和价值.自然蒸发是盐田日晒工艺的应用基础工作,本文基于室内卤水等温蒸发实验的相关结果,在当雄错湖区现场开展了盐湖卤水冬季日晒蒸发实验,通过考察碳酸盐型盐湖卤水在现场低温条件下自然蒸发过程中液相各元素的富集规律以及矿物的结晶析盐规律,分析了锂、硼、钾等元素的集散行为,并根据卤水蒸发过程中的元素富集、蒸失水量、盐类析出顺序、矿物组合以及物化性质的变化探索了盐类分离的控制条件.以Na+,K+/CO2-3,SO2-4,Cl--H2O五元体系(25℃)介稳相图为参考依据,绘制了当雄错盐湖卤水冬季日晒蒸发的结晶析盐路线.实验结果表明,当雄错盐湖卤水在冬季日晒蒸发过程中依次析出石盐、泡碱、天然碱、硼砂、钾石盐和扎布耶石,另有少量芒硝和泡碱等低温产物会提前析出或被母液夹带析出,利用冬季低温蒸发可制取富锂卤水,蒸发后期的母卤还可用于提取硼砂和钾石盐等矿物资源.实验结果为下一步开展盐田工程设计及制卤工艺操作提供了必要的基础数据,同时也为碳酸盐型盐湖卤水的综合利用和开发提供了理论支持.     

Holocene sedimentary environments in Lake Eyre,South Australia

In late Pleistocene time Lake Dieri (ancestral ‘Greater Lake Eyre') was permanently filled during a wet climatic phase. Towards the close of Pleistocene time the watertable fell, Lake Dieri dried up, and its sediments deflated. Later the watertable rose, establishing ephemeral Lake Eyre in the deflated area, and Holocene sedimentation commenced. At about this time Lake Eyre tilted to the south and three sedimentary environments developed: (1) a saline playa environment without saltcrusts in the northern end of the lake, where water drains away before wholly evaporating; (2) a terminal salina environment in the south end, where evaporation of brines leaves saltcrusts overlying gypseous sediments; and (3) a saline flocculation environment between the playa and salina environments, where sediments are deposited by flocculation when muddy floodwater from the north meets highly saline water of the southern salina.

In the northern playa environment, sedimentation is limited to the top of the capillary fringe above the watertable, below which sediments remain moist and protected from aeolian erosion, but above which they dry and blow out of the lake. In the southern salina environment sedimentation has not kept pace with the Holocene rise in watertable. If and when it does reach such a level, downward leaching of salt and deflation of exposed sediments is likely to occur. In the flocculation environment new deposits of clay are added but kept permanently wet by rising groundwater. When flocculated sediment builds too high, its excess is transferrred by surface water into the salina deposits to the south.     

Characterising the distribution of near-shore submarine groundwater discharge along a coastline using 222Rn and electrical conductivity

The spatial and temporal distribution of near-shore fresh submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) was characterised from the coastal aquifers of the Willunga Basin, South Australia, an extensive aquifer system that supports an important viticultural region. Measurements of electrical conductivity (EC) and ²²²Rn (radon) activity were collected at 19 sites along the coastline during the Southern Hemisphere spring (2011) and summer (2013). At each site, samples were collected from the surf zone as well asporewater from beach sediment in the intertidal zone. Surf-zone radon activity ranged from <5 to 70mBq L^–1, and intertidal porewater radon ranged over two orders of magnitude (220–36 940 mBq L^–1) along the Willunga Basin coastline during both surveys. Overall, surf-zone and porewater EC was lower in the spring 2011 survey than in the summer 2013 survey. Porewater EC was similar to that of coastal water at most sites along the coastline, except at three sites where porewater EC was found to be lower than coastal water during both surveys, and three sites where evaporated seawater was observed in the summer survey. Based on the patterns in radon and EC along the coastline, two sites of localised fresh SGD were identified, in addition to a groundwater spring that is known to discharge to the coast. The results indicate that near-shore fresh SGD occurs as localised seeps rather than diffuse seepage along the entire coastline. The apparent absence of groundwater discharge at most locations is also consistent with current evidence suggesting that extensive groundwater pumping within the basin has resulted in seawater intrusion across much of the coastline. These observations also suggest that previous studies are likely to have over-estimated SGD rates from the Willunga Basin because they assumed that SGD occurred along the entire coastline.     

辽宁省海岸带主要河口区一万年来沉积速率及海平面波动情况

采用钻探手段,通过14C、OSL测年,利用4孔岩心,计算了辽宁省海岸带主要河口区一万年来沉积速率,并分析了海平面波动情况.研究表明,辽宁海岸带长期平均的河口海岸区的沉积速率较低.其中,辽东半岛东北部黄海海岸带鸭绿江平原全新世早期处于剥蚀环境,大洋河平原全新世平均沉积速率为1.4 mm/a,辽东湾北部下辽河平原全新世平均沉积速率为1.52 mm/a,辽西海岸带大凌河冲积扇全新世平均沉积速率为1.87mm/a.全新世Ⅰ海相层或海陆过渡相层总体上表现为一次海侵,与下辽河平原区盘山海侵相对应,但各地段海平面波动情况不尽一致.     

Safety assessment of infrastructures using a new Bayesian Monte Carlo method

A recently developed Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) method and its application to safety assessment of structures are described in this paper. We use a one-dimensional BMC method that was proposed in 2009 by Rajabalinejad in order to develop a weighted logical dependence between successive Monte Carlo simulations. Our main objective in this research is to show that the extended BMC can dramatically improve simulation efficiency by using prior information from modelling and outcomes of preceding simulations. We provide theory and numerical algorithms for an extended BMC method for multi-dimensional problems, integrate it with a probabilistic finite element model and apply these coupled models to assessment of reliability of a flood defence for the 17th Street Flood Wall system in New Orleans. This is the first successful demonstration of the BMC method to a complex system. We provide a comparison of the numerical efficiency for the BMC, Monte Carlo (MC) and Dynamic Bounds methods that are used in reliability assessment of complex infrastructures.     

Genesis of an endoreic piezometric coastal depression in sub-Sahelian Western Africa: the Continental Terminal Aquifer of Trarza (Mauritania)

Despite its capital importance, the genesis of endoreic water table depressions in Western sub-Sahelian Africa is not well known yet. It is the case of the Trarza Aquifer, which is the main resource of drinkable water for Nouakchott. While water needs are growing steadily, global warming is threatening this resource. The genesis of piezometric depression is the object of this study, which analyses it in the light of the hydrochemistry of the western border of the Trarza aquifer, which is located in proximity of the Atlantic Ocean and its salt wedge.

The hydrochemical facies of groundwater in the Idini pumping site, 60 km East of Nouakchott, and that of a Nouakchott to the Senegal River transect, should be categorised into 3 groups: 1) chloro-sulfated 2) sulfato-chlorinated and chloro-bicarbonated. Such facies, which are also sodocalcic, indicate that mineralization is of mixed origin (marine and continental).

After reviewing the main mathematical models for piezometric depression, the present study attempts a conceptualization of the piezometric evolution of this phreatic aquifer (Continental Terminal) during the Quaternary. It highlights the dominant role of evaporation in the evolution of the water table of the Trarza aquifer, whose impact is similar to the one of the Quaternary marine level increase.     

基于动态降温结晶工艺的盐湖卤水镁锂分离研究

青海盐湖卤水锂资源储量丰富,高镁锂比卤水存在镁锂分离难的问题。基于非平衡动态降温过程中不同盐组分结晶行为存在差异的原理,开展了强制分离高镁锂比卤水的研究,考察了卤水镁锂比、降温速率、流体状态和卤水温度对镁锂分离效果的影响,并分析了结晶过程中镁锂分离的介稳性特点。结果表明,通过非平衡动态降温结晶析出MgCl₂·6H₂O,可以实现卤水脱镁和镁锂分离,当降温速率为-1.25℃/min、卤水温度在70℃至50℃范围内,镁锂比在10∶1～80∶1时,镁锂分离因子最高可达到1.876,结晶的MgCl₂·6H₂O纯度最高为99.42%。非平衡动态降温结晶工艺相较于经典的盐田工艺,最多可将锂损失率从模拟盐田工艺的38.39%降至7.56%。该工艺为盐湖卤水镁锂分离提供了一条新的思路,也为后续高纯锂盐的制备奠定了基础。     

富锂盐湖中锂的物质来源和流体来源

锂资源是新技术、民用和军工行业的重要原料,全球富锂盐湖多分布在板块俯冲带和碰撞带以及板块转换带,卤水中的锂资源量占全球锂资源总量的80%。富锂盐湖中的锂主要来自于深部和浅部的水-岩作用、早期的含盐岩系以及岩浆作用,其次是盆地周围岩石的风化以及大气来源。富锂盐湖流体主要来源是大气降水、地表水、地下水、再循环卤水和岩浆水以及其它流体。地表水和地下水为富锂盐湖中锂的重要来源,其次是岩浆水和再循环卤水。岩浆作用对于富锂盐湖的形成至关重要,其不仅直接为富锂盐湖带来了成矿物质和成矿流体,还为其中的水—岩反应提供了热源。不过,幔源组成对于富锂盐湖的贡献度还需要作进一步研究。     

西藏古大湖成盐模式的提出与分析探讨

根据目前对青藏高原第四系及古环境研究的最新进展,提出了西藏地区盐湖成盐的模式———古大湖成盐模式,并列举了诸多具有说服力的证据,为研究盐湖矿产形成规律和进一步开发利用,促进西藏经济发展,将产生积极的影响。