杰氏风暴潮预报方法在珠海及粤西海域的应用

本文通过杰氏风暴潮预报方法对历史上给珠海和粤西海域造成较大影响的台风增水事件进行后报试验,并通过统计分析方法对原有的预报公式进行订正,总结出适合珠海及粤西海域的风暴潮预报公式.利用5a的时间对珠海及粤西海域的台风增水进行试报,结果表明预报准确率分别达95.0%和87.6%,尤其对一些增水较大、影响较严重的台风增水预报相对更加准确,预报准确率均达90.0%以上.这说明订正后的公式对珠海及粤西海域的风暴潮预报能得到较好的预报效果.     

Stratigraphy of total metals in PIRLA sediment cores

Sediment cores from 30 low-alkalinity lakes in northern New England (NE), New York (NY), the northern Great Lakes States (NGLS) of Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and Florida (FL) have been dated by ²¹⁰Pb and analyzed for water and organic content, eight major elements (Al, Ti, Fe, Mn, Ca, Mg, Na, K) plus four trace metals (Pb, Zn, Cu, and V). Variations in the percentages of major elements through time are dominated by long-term independent variations in the abundance of SiO₂, FeO, and to a lesser extent Ca and Al. Additional variations are caused by varying proportions of inorganic matter. Major variations in chemistry are generally unrelated to documented distrubances in the watersheds; most disturbances are minor fires or selective logging.Accelerated accumulation of Pb from atmospheric sources into sediment first occurs in sediment dated between 1800 and 1850 in NY and NE, slightly later in the NGLS region, and about 1900 in FL. Modern accumulation rates in all areas are comparable (ca. 1 to 4 g cm^–2 yr^–1). Accumulation rates of Pb in some lakes have declined significantly from 1975 to 1985. Atmospheric deposition of anthropogenic Zn and Cu is also indicated by generally increasing accumulation rates in sediment cores, but the record is not as clear nor are chemical profiles in all lakes parallel to the trends in atmospheric emissions inferred on the basis of fossil fuel consumption, smelting, and other industrial activities. Inter-lake variations in profiles of Cu and Zn are large. Vanadium accumulation rates increase by the 1940s in NY and NE, but not until the 1950s in the NGLS region. This timing correlates with regional trends in the combustion of fuel oil, a major source of atmospheric V.Acidification of some of the lakes is suggested by decreases in the concentration and accumulation rates of Mn, Ca, and Zn in recent sediment, relative to other elements of catchment origin. The decreases generally occur slightly before the onset of acidification as indicated by diatoms. Increased sediment accumulation rates for Fe may indicate the acidification of watershed soils. The use of the accumulation rate of TiO₂ as an indicator of rates of erosion and for normalization of trace metal accumulation rates is in question for lakes where the flux of TiO₂ from the atmosphere varies and is a significant fraction of the total flux of TiO₂ to the sediment.This is the thirteenth of a series of papers to be published by this journal which is a contribution of the Paleoecological Investigation of Recent Lake Acidification (PIRLA) project. Drs. D. F. Charles and D. R. Whitehead are guest editors for this series.     

基于空间信息技术的堰塞湖库容分析方法研究

快速准确计算堰塞湖库容,对了解地震堰塞湖险情具有重要的意义.利用遥感和地理信息系统等空间信息技术,提出了一种基于像素的三维水面的计算动库容的方法,能准确计算水面为曲面,包括动库容在内的总库容.该方法利用遥感影像提取水体边界线,与DEM求交后可得到带高程的边界点,利用空间插值技术获得三维水面,然后利用库容计算模型求解.同时,在分析该算法计算效率的基础上,提出了基于河流分段的库容计算优化算法,最后通过实验对比分析了该方法的合理性和优越性.     

Numerical Modelling of Dissolving and Driving Exploitation of Potash Salt in the Qarhan Playa——A Coupled Model of Reactive olute Transport and Chemical Equilibrium in a Multi-component Underground Brine System

Firstly, the macroscopic chemical equilibrium state of a series of chemical reactions between intercrystal brine and its media salt layer (salt deposit) in Qarhan Salt Lake was studied by using the Pitzer theory. The concept of macroscopic solubility product and its relation with accumulated ore dissolving ratio were presented, which are used in the numerical model of dissolving and driving exploitation of potassium salt in Qarhan Salt Lake. And secondly, with a model forming idea oftransport model for reacting solutes in the multi-component fresh groundwater system in porous media being a reference, a two-dimensional transport model coupled with a series of chemical reactions in a multi-component brine porous system (salt deposits) was developed by using the Pitzer theory.Meanwhile, the model was applied to model potassium/magnesium transport in Qarhan Salt Lake in order to study the transfer law of solid and liquid phases in the dissolving and driving process and to design the optimal injection/abstraction strategy for dissolving and capturing maximum Potassium/Magnesium in the mining of salt deposits in Qarhan Salt Lake.     

Numerical Modelling of Dissolving and Driving Exploitation of Potash Salt in the Qarhan Piaya——A Coupled Model of Reactive Solute Transport and Chemical Equilibrium in a Multi-component Underground Brine System

Firstly,the macroscopic chemical equilibrium state of a series of chemical reactions between intercrystal brine and its media salt layer (salt deposit) in Qarhan Salt Lake was studied by using the Pitzer theory.The concept of macroscopic solubility product and its relation with accumulated ore dissolving ratio were presented,which are used in the numerical model of dissolving and driving exploitation of potassium salt in Qarhan Salt Lake.And secondly,with a model forming idea of transport model for reacting solutes in the multi-component fresh groundwater system in porous media being a reference,a two-dimensional transport model coupled with a series of chemical reactions in a multi-component brine porous system (salt deposits) was developed by using the Pitzer theory. Meanwhile,the model was applied to model potassium/magnesium transport in Qarban Salt Lake in order to study the transfer law of solid and liquid phases in the dissolving and driving process and to design the optimal injection/abstraction strategy for dissolving and capturing maximum Potassium/ Magnesium in the mining of salt deposits in Qarban Salt Lake.     

松辽盆地白垩纪湖泊水体温度与古气候温度估算

湖泊沉积物沉积的第一场所是湖底,湖底温度的高低影响沉积有机质的保存,也影响湖底下部地层的温度。了解古水体温度尤其是古水底温度情况成为评估松辽盆地白垩系生物气勘探前景的必要研究内容之一。根据已有的古气候研究成果与现今气候对比,得出白垩纪松辽盆地年平均气温约为14~24℃。再根据水库温度的计算方法和利用已有的古纬度及古水深的研究成果计算得出,白垩纪松辽盆地古湖盆水体表面温度为17~25℃;水深大于20 m的深湖区,水底温度为6.2~12.5℃;湖底最深处温度为4.0~11.3℃;青山口组和嫩江组沉积时期,湖水分层明显,湖底温度季节性变化很小且温度较低,约为8℃。湖底的低温对松辽盆地白垩纪生物气勘探是有利的。     

Palaeolimnological studies of the eutrophication of volcanic Lake Albano (Central Italy)

We use palaeolimnological techniques to reconstruct the eutrophication history of a volcanic lake (Lake Albano, central Italy) over the past three centuries. The presence of annual varves down to the bottom of the core (c. 1700 A.D.) indicated the lack of bioturbation and likely long-term meromixis. Sedimentation rates were estimated by varve counts (calcite/diatom couplets), indicating a mean rate of 0.15 cm yr^–1. The reconstruction of eutrophication was traced using past populations of algal and photosynthetic bacteria (through their fossil pigment), and geochemistry, as well as fossil remains of chironomids. Phaeophorbidea and the red carotenoid astaxanthin were used to detect past zooplankton development.The first sign of trophic change related to human activities is datedc. 1870 A.D. From that period onward a sharp increase of authigenic CaCO₃, nitrogen, N:P ratio, and dinoxanthin, a characteristic carotenoid of Chrysophyceae and Dinophyceae, is observed.Chironomid analyses showed the near absence of a deep water fauna throughout the core length. The populations of chironomid larvae are restricted to oxygenated littoral zones. In fact, the few fossil remains found are primarily of littoral origin, representing shallow water midges that were transported to profundal waters. The reduction of total chironomid in the uppermost layers of the core is to be related to human land uses.     

ANALYSIS OF A CASE OF EAST ASIA COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS*

The evolution of an explosive cyclone off the East Asia coast in March 1979 is described.A shortwave trough in the southern branch of upper-level westerlies initiated the incipient cyclone.Later,a polar trough in the north amplified and became in phase with the southern shortwave to form a major trough.This major trough was responsible for the rapid intensification of the surface cyclone.In the early development stage,warm and moist air was transported northward to the developing area by a strong low-level jet.The ageostrophic wind associated with the low-level jet contributed to the frontogenesis,creating a favorable low-level environment for the rapid deepening.A low-level positive potential vorticity anomaly was created prior to the onset of rapid deepening.It was a result of frontal cloud condensation.The cyclone intensified rapidly when stratospheric air with high potential vorticity penetrated to the mid-troposphere.The rapid deepening took place at a location under the left-exit region of an amplifying jet streak behind the major trough and the right-entrance region of another anticyclonically-curved subtropical jet streak in a quasi-stationary ridge overJapan.Due to the blocking effect of the Tibetan Plateau,two shortwave disturbances were observed in the upper-level westerlies on the north and south sides of the Plateau.The southern disturbance initiated the incipient surface cyclone,while the amplifying northern disturbance was responsible for the rapid deepening.Thus,the evolution of the explosive cyclone in this case can be regarded as consecutive Petterssen's "type-B" cyclogenesis in two separate stages.     

Late Quaternary palaeolimnology of a tropical marl lake: Wallywash Great Pond,Jamaica

Wallywash Great Pond (17° 57 N, 77° 48 W, 7 m a.s.l.) is the largest perennial lake in Jamaica. It occupies a fault trough within the karstic White Limestone. The Great Pond is a hardwater lake with a pH of 8.2–8.6 and an alkalinity of 3.6–3.9 meq 1^–1. Its chemistry is strongly influenced by the spring discharge from the limestone. The lake water is subject to degassing, evaporation and bicarbonate assimilation by submerged plants and algae, resulting in marl precipitation. A 9.23 m core (WGP2), taken from a water depth of 2.8 m, was analysed for magnetic susceptibility, loss-on-ignition, carbonate content, mole % MgCO₃ in calcite, and stable isotopes in the fine carbonate fraction. The chronology is based on ten¹⁴C and four U/Th dates. Four main sediment types alternate in the core: marl; organic, calcareous mud; organic mud or peat; and earthy, brown, calcareous mud. The marls represent periods of wet/warm climate during sea-level highstands and the organic deposits, shallower, swampy conditions. In contrast, the brown, calcareous muds were laid down when the lake was dry or ephemeral. The last interglacial (120 000- 106 000 yr BP) is represented by three distinct marl units. After a dry interval, stable, wet/warm conditions set in from 106 000 to 93 000 yr BP. A dry/cool climate prevailed between 93 000 and at least 9500 yr BP. Three subsequent cycles of alternating wet and dry conditions culminated in flooding of the basin by the Black River during the late Holocene. These recent events cannot be accurately dated by¹⁴C due to significant and temporally-variable inputs of dead carbon from the springs.     

The history and impact of air pollution at Čertovo Lake,southwestern Czech Republic

This multi-disciplinary investigation documents the longterm effects of atmospheric pollution of metals and acids on a geologically sensitive catchment in the umava Mountains, southwestern Czech Republic, a region with a long history of human disturbance. A 30 cm long sediment core (I) from ertovo Lake was analyzed for natural and artifical radionuclides, metals, diatoms, chrysophytes, and pollen in sediments accumulated during the last 200 years. A second core (II), extending to 95 cm, included sediment judged to be free of atmospheric deposition of pollutants associated with the Industrial Revolution. Chronostratigraphic markers include several changes in the pollen assemblages corresponding to well-documented changes in land-use, and distinct distributions of ¹³⁷Cs, ¹³⁴Cs and ²⁴¹Am from weapons testing and the 1986 nuclear accident at Chernobyl, Russia. These markers corroborate the ²¹⁰Pb dating and, together, produce a reliable chronology extending back nearly to 1800 A.D.Stratigraphic profiles of Cu, Pb, and Zn in Core I are unlike any previously reported in the literature. Concentrations of Cu, Pb, and Zn remain generally above 100, 400, and 200 g g^-1, respectively, for the 200 years represented by Core I. These values are unusually high for sediments from a watershed with no known heavy-metal ore bodies. Accumulation rates for Cu, Pb, and Zn, which include both atmospheric and watershed contributions, are also high (ca 1, > 1 and > 1 g cm^-2 yr^-1, respectively) for the same period, although the anthropogenic contribution of Zn rose from nearly zero at 1800 A.D. The Cu and Pb accumulation rates rose dramatically about 1640 A.D.Accumulation rates of anthropogenically-derived Be, a relatively abundant element in the soft coals of the region, are also elevated by about 0.01 g cm^-2 yr^-1 in sediments of this period. Vanadium accumulation rates increased only since 1980 A.D., presumably along with increased consumption of oil.Diatom assemblages illustrate that the lake was acidic (pH between 4.5 and 5) through at least the past 200 years. The pH declined significantly (from ca 5 to 4) between 1960 and 1985 with a slight increase to 4.5 in the last few years. Recent diatom and chrysophyte assemblages suggest high trace metal concentrations, consistent with the present lake-water chemistry.