1961-2008年中国西南地区极端气候变化幅度的海拔效应(英文)

A total of 12 indices of temperature extremes and 11 indices of precipitation ex-tremes at 111 stations in southwestern China at altitudes of 285-4700 m were examined for the period 1961-2008. Significant correlations of temperature extremes and elevation in-cluded the trends of diurnal temperature range, frost days, ice days, cold night frequency and cold day frequency. Regional trends of growing season length, warm night frequency, coldest night and warmest night displayed a statistically significant positive correlation with altitude. These characteristics indicated the obvious warming with altitude. For precipitation extreme indices, only the trends of consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days, wet day precipitation and the number of heavy precipitation days had significant correlations with increasing alti-tude owing to the complex influence of atmospheric circulation. It also indicated the increased precipitation mainly at higher altitude areas, whereas the increase of extreme precipitation events mainly at lowers altitude. In addition, the clearly local influences are also crucial on climate extremes. The analysis revealed an enhanced sensitivity of climate extremes to ele-vation in southwestern China in the context of recent warming.     

中国全球气候变化影响研究方法的进展

着重介绍了中国全球气候变化影响研究中有关方法的最新进展,其中包括实验室、农田和野外观测实验;冰芯、树木年轮和历史文献方法;数值模式研究,特别是静态模式和动态模式研究。最后,指出了存在的问题,以及研究展望。     

中亚天山地区关键水文要素变化与水循环研究进展

天山地处欧亚大陆腹地,是丝绸之路经济带中段的重要水源地.天山地区的水循环系统具有时空差异性大、水源机制复杂、径流构成多元以及水系统脆弱等特点,水循环各环节受陆表格局和气候变化影响显著,水文要素对气候变化响应敏感,难以沿用现有的流域水循环模式阐述其内在机理.结合文献阅读和研究,系统分析了气候变化背景下天山地区关键水文要素...     

末次间冰期127 ka时期植被反馈增强东亚夏季风降水的数值模拟研究

黄土和石笋等古气候代用资料表明在末次间冰期间,东亚夏季风增强、降水增多。本研究利用地球系统模式EC-Earth模拟了末次间冰期127 ka时期的气候,通过和工业革命前的气候模拟控制试验做比对,分析了127 ka时期由于地球轨道参数变化导致的东亚夏季风的空间变化特征。我们利用了两种EC-Earth的模式配置,即"大气-陆面-海洋-海冰"耦合模式和"大气-陆面-海洋-海冰-动态植被"耦合模式,分别估算轨道强迫和植被反馈对东亚夏季风降水变化的贡献。数值模拟结果表明,地球轨道强迫导致的海陆热力差异使得东亚夏季风系统显著增强并北移西伸,中国中部及华北地区降水增多而东部沿海地区降水减少。耦合了动态植被模式的试验结果表明,127 ka时期温暖湿润的气候致使东亚地区植被增多,植被的蒸腾作用使得地表的感热和潜热通量显著增大,从而增强了局地水循环,使降水进一步增多。植被的反馈作用在原本温暖湿润的华南地区对降水的影响并不显著,但是对相对干旱的我国中部和华北地区降水有显著影响。数值试验结果表明轨道强迫和植被反馈的共同作用能使内陆的四川盆地到华北一带夏季降水增加约40%,其中30%的增加是由于轨道强迫作用,约10%是由于植被反馈。这个研究也提醒我们,要得到更加合理的对过去或未来气候变化的模拟结果,有必要使用耦合动态植被的气候系统模式。

     

未来气候情景下气候变化响应过程研究综述

气候变化将会对生态系统、自然资源、极端气候和人类社会产生一定的影响,科学评估未来气候变化响应是应对气候变化的前提。通过对当前研究成果的回顾,建立未来气候情景下气候变化响应研究的系统思路,并总结了研究所涉及的方法。系统论述了应用第5阶段耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)气候模式前进行适用性评价的必要性;分析了当前降尺度方法尤其是统计降尺度的主要方法及进展;归纳了偏差校正过程中普遍使用的方法,最后,综合分析了整个研究过程中的不确定性。研究将为气候变化响应分析提供方法和思路指导。     

昆明城市气候水平空间分布特征

以昆明城市为研究对象，对城市西南-东北剖线的实测资料比较研究，从气温、水汽压、相对湿度、风速、风向等方面分析了昆明城市气候特征、变化规律及城市热岛效应。研究表明：在昆明存在热岛效应，以夜间最为明显，其最强度效应可达5.0℃，出现时刻（3时）与国内外多数研究结果（傍晚）有所不同；昆明城市昼间呈现明显的干岛效应。所得结论可为探讨昆明城市气候特片和形成机制，城市环境污染防治及建筑规划、设计等提供依据。     

Influence of vegetation change on watershed hydrology: implications for paleoclimatic interpretation of lacustrine δ18O records

Stratigraphic shifts in the oxygen isotopic (¹⁸O) and trace element (Mg and Sr) composition of biogenic carbonate from tropical lake sediment cores are often interpreted as a proxy record of the changing relation between evaporation and precipitation (E/P). Holocene ¹⁸O and Mg and Sr records from Lakes Salpetén and Petén Itzá, Guatemala were apparently affected by drainage basin vegetation changes that influenced watershed hydrology, thereby confounding paleoclimatic interpretations. Oxygen isotope values and trace element concentrations in the two lowland lakes were greatest between ~ 9000 and 6800 ¹⁴C-yr BP, suggesting relatively high E/P, but pollen data indicate moist conditions and extensive forest cover in the early Holocene. The discrepancy between pollen- and geochemically-inferred climate conditions may be reconciled if the high early Holocene ¹⁸O and trace element values were controlled principally by low surface runoff and groundwater flow to the lake, rather than high E/P. Dense forest cover in the early Holocene would have increased evapotranspiration and soil moisture storage, thereby reducing delivery of meteoric water to the lakes. Carbonate ¹⁸O and Mg and Sr decreased between 7200 and 3500 ¹⁴C-yr BP in Lake Salpetén and between 6800 and 5000 ¹⁴C-yr BP in Lake Petén Itzá. This decline coincided with palynologically documented forest loss that may have led to increased surface and groundwater flow to the lakes. In Lake Salpetén, minimum ¹⁸O values (i.e., high lake levels) occurred between 3500 and 1800 ¹⁴C-yr BP. Relatively high lake levels were confirmed by ¹⁴C-dated aquatic gastropods from subaerial soil profiles ~ 1.0–7.5 m above present lake stage. High lake levels were a consequence of lower E/P and/or greater surface runoff and groundwater inflow caused by human-induced deforestation.     

Issues of Spatial and Temporal Variability in Climate Impact Studies

The accuracy of impact estimates relating climate change to regional-scale agricultural production is constrained by the temporal and spatial resolution of climate change projections. Several techniques have been used to compensate for these limitations in order to provide reasonable estimates of the impact of climate change on crop yield. One approach assumes that variability over time can substitute for spatial variability, thereby reducing the need to estimate the impacts at a spatially dense network of stations—an assumption that has not been generally tested. This study evaluates this assumption using methods similar to those employed in the climate impact literature. The findings suggest that current practices are generally defensible if the goal is to provide a range of possible crop responses to climate change. However, the results also show that the assumption is highly sensitive to specific interactions at the soil-plant-atmosphere interface and, consequently, does not hold under certain circumstances.     

Modeling the effects of historical vegetation change on near-surface atmosphere in the northern Chihuahuan Desert

Our goal was to evaluate effects of broad-scale changes in vegetation from grasslands to shrublands over the past 150 years on near-surface atmosphere over the Jornada Experimental Range in the northern Chihuahuan Desert, using a regional climate model. Simulations were conducted using 1858 and 1998 vegetation maps, and data collected in the field. Overall, the vegetation shift led to small changes in sensible heat (SH) and an increase in latent heat (LH). The impacts of shrub encroachment depended on shrubland type: conversion from grass to mesquite cools the near-surface atmosphere and from grass to creosotebush warms it. Higher albedo of mesquite relative to grasses reduced available energy, which was dissipated mainly as LH due to the deeper root system in mesquite. In creosotebush-dominated areas, a decrease in albedo, an increase in roughness length and displacement height contributed to the SH increase and warmer temperatures. Sensitivity simulations showed that an increase in soil moisture content enhanced shrub LH and a reduction in mesquite cover enhanced the temperature differences. The observed shift in vegetation led to complex interactions between land and surface fluxes, demonstrating that vegetation itself is a weather and climate variable as it significantly influences temperature and humidity.     

气候变化对里海水位的影响（英文）

目前,关于里海的两个主要问题是水位变化及其生态条件。历史上,里海的海水入侵和衰退对该区域的生活和生产有很大影响。应用地质数据、历史数据和考古数据,以及观测数据,本文对地质历史时期里海水位的变化、年度和季度变化以及短期的波动进行了研究。文章对解释里海水位波动的两种不同的方法进行了论述,并认为里海水位变化是受地质、水文气候和水量平衡以及人类活动等因素的影响的多级过程,其中主要影响因素为水文气候的变化。