Estimates of heat flow and heat production and a thermal model of the São Francisco craton

An updated analysis of geothermal data from the highland area of eastern Brazil has been carried out and the characteristics of regional variations in geothermal gradients and heat flow examined. The database employed includes results of geothermal measurements at 45 localities. The results indicate that the Salvador craton and the adjacent metamorphic fold belts northeastern parts of the study area are characterized by geothermal gradients in the range of 6–17°C/km. The estimated heat flow values fall in the range of 28–53 mW/m², with low values in the cratonic area relative to the fold belts. On the other hand, the São Francisco craton and the intracratonic São Francisco sedimentary basin in the southwestern parts are characterized by relatively higher gradient values, in the range of 14–42°C/km, with the corresponding heat flow values falling in the range of 36–89 mW/m². Maps of regional variations indicate that high heat flow anomaly in the São Francisco craton is limited to areas of sedimentary cover, to the west of the Espinhaço mountain belt. Crustal thermal models have been developed to examine the implications of the observed intracratonic variations in heat flow. The thermal models take into consideration variation of thermal conductivity with temperature as well as change of radiogenic heat generation with depth. Vertical distributions of seismic velocities were used in obtaining estimates of radiogenic heat production in crustal layers. Crustal temperatures are calculated based on a procedure that makes simultaneous use of the Kirchoff and Generalized Integral Transforms, providing thereby analytical solutions in 2D and 3D geometry. The results point to temperature variations of up to 300°C at the Moho depth, between the northern Salvador and southern São Francisco cratons. There are indications that differences in rheological properties, related to thermal field, are responsible for the contrasting styles of deformation patterns in the adjacent metamorphic fold belts.     

Comparison of numerical models of two debris flows in the Cortina d’ Ampezzo area,Dolomites, Italy

The accurate prediction of runout distances, velocities and the knowledge of flow rheology can reduce the casualties and property damage produced by debris flows, providing a means to delineate hazard areas, to estimate hazard intensities for input into risk studies and to provide parameters for the design of protective measures. The application of most of models that describe the propagation and deposition of debris flow requires detailed topography, rheological and hydrological data that are not always available for the debris-flow hazard delineation and estimation. In the Cortina d’Ampezzo area, Eastern Dolomites, Italy, most of the slope instabilities are represented by debris flows; 325 debris-flow prone watersheds have been mapped in the geomorphological hazard map of this area. We compared the results of simulations of two well-documented debris flows in the Cortina d’Ampezzo area, carried on with two different single-phase, non-Newtonian models, the one-dimensional DAN-W and the two-dimensional FLO-2D, to test the possibility to simulate the dynamic behaviour of a debris flow with a model using a limited range of input parameters. FLO-2D model creates a more accurate representation of the hazard area in terms of flooded area, but the results in terms of runout distances and deposits thickness are similar to DAN-W results. Using DAN-W, the most appropriate rheology to describe the debris-flow behaviour is the Voellmy model. When detailed topographical, rheological and hydrological data are not available, DAN-W, which requires less detailed data, is a valuable tool to predict debris-flow hazard. Parameters obtained through back-analysis with both models can be applied to predict hazard in other areas characterized by similar geology, morphology and climate.     

(ϖμ/ϖT) P of the lower mantle

We estimate (/T) _P of the lower mantle at seismic frequencies using two distinct approaches by combining ambient laboratory measurements on lower mantle minerals with seismic data. In the first approach, an upper bound is estimated for |(/T) _P | by comparing the shear modulus () profile of PREM with laboratory room-temperature data of extrapolated to high pressures. The second approach employs a seismic tomography constraint ( lnV _S / lnV _P ) _P =1.8–2, which directly relates (/T) _P with (K _S /T) _P . An average (K _S /T) _P can be obtained by comparing the well-established room-temperature compression data for lower mantle minerals with theK _S profile of PREM along several possible adiabats. Both (K _S /T) and (/T) depend on silicon content [or (Mg+Fe)/Sil of the model. For various compositions, the two approaches predict rather distinct (/T) _P vs. (K _S /T) _P curves, which intersect at a composition similar to pyrolite with (/T) _P =–0.02 to –0.035 and (K _S /T) _P =–0.015 to –0.020 GPa/K. The pure perovskite model, on the other hand, yields grossly inconsistent results using the two approaches. We conclude that both vertical and lateral variations in seismic velocities are consistent with variation due to pressure, temperature, and phase transformations of a uniform composition. Additional physical properties of a pyrolite lower mantle are further predicted. Lateral temperature variations are predicted to be about 100–250 K, and the ratio of ( lnp/ lnV _S ) _P around 0.13 and 0.26. All of these parameters increase slightly with depth if the ratio of ( lnV _S / lnV _P ) _P remains constant throughout the lower mantle. These predicted values are in excellent agreement with geodynamic analyses, in which the ratios ( ln / lnV _S ) _P and ( / lnV _S ) _P are free parameters arbitrarily adjusted to fit the tomography and geoid data.     

The “Zero-order Model” revisited: Paul Schindler's influence on the development of trace metal scavenging models

In 1975 Paul Schindler produced the first oceanic trace metal scavenging model to explicitly include the role of surface chemistry as a control on trace metal water column residence times. The eighteen years that have elapsed since the publication of Schindler's seminal paper have seen the development of a variety of oceanic scavenging models; yet, the fundamental insight of his Zero-order Model remains the benchmark. This paper describes the role of Paul Schindler's work on surface chemistry in providing a framework for the current generation of trace element scavenging models.     

Estimation for partially observed Markov processes

Many stochastic process models for environmental data sets assume a process of relatively simple structure which is in some sense partially observed. That is, there is an underlying process (X_n, n 0) or (X_t, t 0) for which the parameters are of interest and physically meaningful, and an observable process (Y_n, n 0) or (Y_t, t 0) which depends on the X process but not otherwise on those parameters. Examples are wide ranging: the Y process may be the X process with missing observations; the Y process may be the X process observed with a noise component; the X process might constitute a random environment for the Y process, as with hidden Markov models; the Y process might be a lower dimensional function or reduction of the X process. In principle, maximum likelihood estimation for the X process parameters can be carried out by some form of the EM algorithm applied to the Y process data. In the paper we review some current methods for exact and approximate maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate some of the issues by considering how to estimate the parameters of a stochastic Nash cascade model for runoff. In the case of k reservoirs, the outputs of these reservoirs form a k dimensional vector Markov process, of which only the kth coordinate process is observed, usually at a discrete sample of time points.     

Using numerical modelling to evaluate tsunami hazard near the Kuril Island

A sequence of computer experiments is used to study questions concerning the tsunami problem as a quantitative estimate of tsunami danger, detailed geographical tsunami classification, determination of the parameters of critical tsunami waves, and the conditions of their development. We call a wave critical, if its impact on the coast is most hazardous.Using the Middle Kuril Island as an example, we present the results of a computer experiment which includes determining the wavefields on the shelf and estimating the effects connected with the deep-water Bussol and Diana Straits.Numerical simulation of tsunami waves of different sources permits the assessment of the extent of tsunami danger in different areas of the coastal zone of Simushir Island, depending on the location of the focus zone and their geometry.The major singularities of the wavefield arise in the zones of the deep-water straits. The distribution of the amplification factors is determined by both the global parameters of the wavefields and the local properties of individual harbours. The results obtained for a particular harbour in the northern part of Simushir Island, formed the basis for the quantitative estimate of tsunami danger for this area.     

Subsidence due to peat oxidation and impact on drainage infrastructures in a farmland catchment south of the Venice Lagoon

Large agricultural areas reclaimed in the past century, south of the Venice Lagoon, have experienced significant land subsidence due to oxidation of peat organic soils. This has exposed the region to flood hazard particularly during severe storms and has contributed to increase the marginal management cost of the infrastructures (ditches, levees, pumping stations) designed to operate the drainage system. Direct measurements and indirect evidence from the channel network suggest a land settlement between 1.5 and 2 m over the past 70 years. This paper provides an overview of the problem with important information on its most recent evolution.     

Hydrogeology of thermal waters in Viterbo area, central Italy

A conceptual hydrogeological model of the Viterbo thermal area (central Italy) has been developed. Though numerous studies have been conducted on its geological, geochemical and geothermal features, there is no generalized picture defining the origin and yield of the hydrothermal system. These latter aspects have therefore become the objectives of this research, which is based on new hydrogeological and geochemical investigations. The geological setting results in the coexistence of overlapped interacting aquifers. The shallow volcanic aquifer, characterized by fresh waters, is fed from the area around the Cimini Mountains and is limited at its base by the semiconfining marly-calcareous-arenaceous complex and low-permeability clays. To the west of Viterbo, vertical upflows of thermal waters of the sulphate-chloride-alkaline-earth type with higher gas contents, are due to the locally uplifted carbonate reservoir, the reduced thickness of the semiconfining layer and the high local geothermal gradient. The hot waters (30–60°C) are the result of deep circulation within the carbonate rocks (0.5–1.8 km) and have the same recharge area as the volcanic aquifer. The upward flow in the Viterbo thermal area is at least 0.1 m³/s. This flow feeds springs and deep wells, also recharging the volcanic aquifer from below.     

New Generation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area Cologne/Aachen Considering the Uncertainties of the Input Data

A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified M_w magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84% fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2 m/s² for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50 years), 0.4 s (0.8 and 1.5 m/s²) and 1.0 s (0.3 and 0.5 m/s²) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I₀ = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50 years based on pga (maximum median value about 1.5 m/s²), and 0.4 s (>2 m/s²) and 1.0 s (about 0.8 m/s²) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2 m/s² and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4 s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2–6.3° E and 50.8–50.9° N, i.e., east of Aachen.     

Karst groundwater protection in the Kupa River catchment area and sustainable development

One of the most significant water resources in the Republic of Croatia is the catchment area of the Kupa River, located in the region bordering the Republic of Slovenia. About 88% of the total amount of water in this catchment originates in Croatia and just 12% from Slovenia; therefore, the largest part of the catchment area (about 1000 km²) is on the Croatian side of the border. It is a typical karst area of the Dinarides with aquifers characterized by a relatively rapid water exchange, high groundwater flow velocities and aquifers open to human impact from the surface. Consequently, the aquifers are highly vulnerable and at risk. Due to the availability of large quantities of high-quality spring water (about 6 m³/s), the entire area has a strategic importance within the context of any future development strategy pertaining to the western part of Croatia. The catchment area on the Croatian side was investigated using a wide range of research methods that included a classical hydrogeological approach, the detailed hydrologic calculation of water balance to the hydrogeochemical analyses and modelling. The objective was to determine protection zones and protection measures for the whole area. The difficulties are increased due to the fact that the karst catchment area is crossed by major traffic corridors, oil pipelines and a railway and that many settlements and a highly developed wood industry are present. The combination of protecting water resources with adequate prevention measures and necessary remedial activities that should satisfy the very strict requirements necessary for the protection of the karst aquifers while still allowing for present and future human activities is difficult – but not impossible – to achieve. One good example is the present highway with a closed dewatering system and waste water treatment before the water passes into the karst underground system.