Improving NWP through radar rainfall-driven land surface parameters: A case study on convective precipitation forecasting

In this study we investigate the effect of forcing the land surface scheme of an atmospheric mesoscale model with radar rainfall data instead of the model-generated rainfall fields. The goal is to provide improved surface conditions for the atmospheric model in order to achieve accurate simulations of the mesoscale circulations that can significantly affect the timing, distribution and intensity of convective precipitation. The performance of the approach is evaluated in a set of numerical experiments on the basis of a 2-day-long mesoscale convective system that occurred over the US Great Plains in July 2004. The experimental design includes multiple runs covering a variety of forcing periods. Continuous data integration was initially used to investigate the sensitivity of the model’s performance in varying soil state conditions, while shorter time windows prior to the storm event were utilized to assess the effectiveness of the procedure for improving convective precipitation forecasting. Results indicate that continuous integration of radar rainfall data brings the simulated precipitation fields closer to the observed ones, as compared to the control simulation. The precipitation forecasts (up to 48 h) appear improved also in the cases of shorter integration periods (24 and 36 h), making this technique potentially useful for operational settings of weather forecasting systems. A physical interpretation of the results is provided on the basis of surface moisture and energy exchange.     

Reconstruction and analysis of sub-plinian tephra dispersal during the 1530 A.D. Soufrière (Guadeloupe) eruption: Implications for scenario definition and hazards assessment

The last magmatic eruption of Soufrière of Guadeloupe dated at 1530 A.D. (Soufrière eruption) is characterized by an onset with a partial flank-collapse and emplacement of a debris-avalanche that was followed by a sub-plinian VEI 2–3 explosive short-lived eruption (Phase-1) with a column that reached a height between 9 and 12 km producing about 3.9 × 10⁶ m³ DRE (16.3 × 10⁶ m³ bulk) of juvenile products. The column recurrently collapsed generating scoriaceous pyroclastic flows in radiating valleys up to a distance of 5–6 km with a maximum interpolated bulk deposit volume of 11.7 × 10⁶ m³ (5 × 10⁶ m³ DRE). We have used HAZMAP, a numerical simple first-order model of tephra dispersal [Macedonio, G., Costa, A., Longo, A., 2005. A computer model for volcanic ash fallout and assessment of subsequent hazard. Comput. Geosci. 31, 837–845] to reconstruct to a first approximation the potential dispersal of tephra and associated tephra mass loadings generated by the sub-plinian Phase 1 of the 1530 A.D. eruption. We have tested our model on a deterministic average dry season wind profile that best-fits the available data as well as on a set of randomly selected wind profiles over a 5 year interval that allows the elaboration of probabilistic maps for the exceedance of specific tephra mass load thresholds. Results show that in the hypothesis of a future 1530 A.D. scenario, populated areas to a distance of 3–4 km west–southwest of the vent could be subjected to a static load pressure between 2 and 10 kPa in case of wet tephra, susceptible to cause variable degrees of roof damage. Our results provide volcanological input parameters for scenario and event-tree definition, for assessing volcanic risks and evaluating their impact in case of a future sub-plinian eruption which could affect up to 70 000 people in southern Basse-Terre island and the region. They also provide a framework to aid decision-making concerning land management and development. A sub-plinian eruption is the most likely magmatic scenario in case of a future eruption of this volcano which has shown, since 1992, increasing signs of low-energy seismic, thermal, and acid degassing unrest without significant deformation.     

Hillslope–channel sediment transfer in a slope failure event: Wet Swine Gill,Lake District,northern England

This paper describes and analyses a hillslope–channel slope failure event that occurred at Wet Swine Gill, Lake District, northern England. This comprised a hillslope slide (180 m³, c. 203 ± 36 t), which coupled with the adjacent stream, resulting in a channelized debris flow and fluvial flood. The timing of the event is constrained between January and March 2002. The hillslope failure occurred in response to a rainfall/snowmelt trigger, on ground recently disturbed by a heather moorland fire and modified by artificial drainage. Slide and flow dynamics are estimated using reconstructed velocity and discharge values along the sediment transfer path. There is a rapid downstream reduction in both maximum velocity, from 9·8 to 1·3 m s^?1; and maximum discharge, ranging from 33·5 to 2·4 m³ s^?1. A volumetric sediment budget quantified a high degree of coupling between the hillslope and immediate channel (～92%: 167 m³), but virtually all of the sediment was retained in the first‐order tributary channel. Approximately 44% (81 m³) of the slide volume was retained in the run‐up deposit, and termination of the debris flow prior to the main river meant that the remainder did not discharge into the fluvial system downstream. These results suggest poor transmission of sediment to the main river at the time of the event, but importantly an increase in available material for post‐event sediment transfer processes within the small upland tributary. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Major and trace element geochemistry of neutral and acidic thermal springs at El Chichón volcano,Mexico: Implications for monitoring of the volcanic activity

Four groups of thermal springs with temperatures from 50 to 80 °C are located on the S–SW–W slopes of El Chichón volcano, a composite dome-tephra edifice, which exploded in 1982 with a 1 km wide, 160 m deep crater left. Very dynamic thermal activity inside the crater (variations in chemistry and migration of pools and fumaroles, drastic changes in the crater lake volume and chemistry) contrasts with the stable behavior of the flank hot springs during the time of observations (1974–2005). All known groups of hot springs are located on the contact of the basement and volcanic edifice, and only on the W–SW–S slopes of the volcano at almost same elevations 600–650 m asl and less than 3 km of direct distance from the crater. Three groups of near-neutral (pH ≈ 6) springs at SW–S slopes have the total thermal water outflow rate higher than 300 l/s and are similar in composition. The fourth and farthest group on the western slope discharges acidic (pH ≈ 2) saline (10 g/kg of Cl) water with a much lower outflow rate (< 10 l/s).     

Hydrochemical behaviour of dissolved nitrogen and carbon in a headwater stream of the Canadian Shield: relevance of antecedent soil moisture conditions

This paper examines the impact of contrasting antecedent soil moisture conditions on the hydrochemical response, here the changes in dissolved nitrogen (NO₃^?, NH₄⁺ and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON)) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations, of a first‐order stream during hydrological events. The study was performed in the Hermine, a 5 ha forested watershed of the Canadian Shield. It focused on a series of eight precipitation events (spring, summer and fall) sampled every 2 or 3 h and showing contrasted antecedent moisture conditions. The partition of the eight events between two groups (dry or wet) of antecedent moisture conditions was conducted using a principal component analysis (PCA). The partition was controlled (first axis explained 86% of the variability) by the antecedent streamflow, the streamflow to precipitation ratio Q/P and by the antecedent groundwater depth. The mean H⁺, NO₃^?, NH₄⁺, total dissolved nitrogen and DOC concentrations and electrical conductivity values in the stream were significantly higher following dry antecedent conditions than after wetter conditions had prevailed in the Hermine, although the temporal variability was high (17 to 138%). At the event scale, a significantly higher proportion of the changes in DON, NO₃^?, and DOC concentrations in the stream was explained by temporal variations in discharge compared with the seasonal and annual scales. Two of the key hydrochemical features of the dry events were the synchronous changes in DOC and flow and the frequent negative relationships between discharge and NO₃^?. The DON concentrations were much less responsive than DOC to changes in discharge, whereas NH was not in phase with streamflow. During wet events, the synchronicity between streamflow and DON or NO₃^? was higher than during dry events and discharge and NO₃^? were generally positively linked. Based on these observations, the hydrological behaviour of the Hermine is conceptually compatible with a two‐component model of shallow (DON and DOC rich; variable NO₃^?) and deep (DON and DOC poor; variable NO₃^?) subsurface flow. The high NO₃^? and DOC levels measured at the early stages of dry events reflected the contribution from NO₃^?‐rich groundwaters. The contribution of rapid surface flow on water‐repellent soil materials located close to the stream channel is hypothesized to explain the DOC levels. An understanding of the complex interactions between antecedent soil moisture conditions, the presence of soil nutrients available for leaching and the dynamics of soil water flow paths during storms is essential to explain the fluxes of dissolved nitrogen and carbon in streams of forested watersheds. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

东北地震区地震活动趋势数学建模分析

本文按照活动地块边界带和地震区的划分方案,使用Mapsis软件选取了东北地震区1900年以来Ms4.7级以上地震资料,这样得到的地震资料可能具有一个完整的地质系统性。使用数学中19阶多项式模型,对地震资料进行最佳逼近拟合,并递推未来1～2年时间尺度预测,模型中的参数用最小二乘法求取,引用了一种数学方法来描述东北地震区的地震趋势规律。     

Numerical simulation of strong ground motion for the <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>s</Subscript>8.0 Wenchuan earthquake of 12 May 2008

The Wenchuan earthquake of 12 May 2008 is the most destructive earthquake in China in the past 30 years in terms of property damage and human losses. In order to understand the earthquake process and the geo-morphological factors affecting the seismic hazard, we simulated the strong ground motion caused by the earthquake, incorporating three-dimensional (3D) earth structure, finite-fault rupture, and realistic surface topography. The simulated ground motions reveal that the fault rupture and basin structure control the overall pattern of the peak ground shaking. Large peak ground velocity (PGV) is distributed in two narrow areas: one with the largest PGV values is above the hanging wall of the fault and attributed to the locations of fault asperities and rupture directivity; the other is along the northwestern margin of the Sichuan Basin and caused by both the directivity of fault rupture and the amplification in the thick sediment basin. Rough topography above the rupture fault causes wave scattering, resulting in significantly larger peak ground motion on the apex of topographic relief than in the valley. Topography and scattering also reduce the wave energy in the forward direction of fault rupture but increase the PGV in other parts of the basin. These results suggest the need for a localized hazard assessment in places of rough topography that takes the topographic effects into account. Finally, had the earthquake started at the northeast end of the fault zone and ruptured to the southwest, Chengdu would have suffered a much stronger shaking than it experienced on 12 May, 2008. Supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation (Grant Nos. EAR 0738779 and OCE 0727919), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2004CB418404), and partially by the National Nature Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40521002)     

Periodical mixing of MORB magmas near East Pacific Rise 13°N: Evidence from modeling and zoned plagioclase phenocrysts

Thirty-six basalt samples from near East Pacific Rise 13°N are analyzed for major and trace elements. Different types of zoned plagioclase phenocrysts in basalts are also backscatter imaged, and major element profiles scanned and analyzed for microprobe. Basalts dredged from a restricted area have evolved to different extents (MgO=9.38wt%—6.76wt%). High MgO basalts are modeled for crystalliza-tion to MgO of about 7wt%, and resulted in the Ni contents (≈28 ppm) that are generally lower than that in observed basalts (>60 ppm). It suggests that low MgO basalts may have experienced more intensive magma mixing. High MgO (9.38wt%) basalt is modeled for self-"mixing-crystallization", and the high Ni contents in low MgO basalts can be generated in small scale and periodical self-mixing of new magma (high MgO). "Mixing-crystallization" processes that low MgO magmas experienced accord with recent 226Ra/230Th disequilibria studies for magma residence time, in which low MgO magmas have experi-enced more circles of "mixing-crystallization" in relatively longer residence time. Magma mixing is not homogeneous in magma chamber, however, low MgO magmas are closer to stable composition pro-duced by periodical "mixing-crystallization", which is also an important reason for magma diversity in East Pacific Rise. Zoned plagioclase phenocrysts can be divided into two types: with and without high An# cores, both of which have multiple reversed An# zones, suggesting periodical mixing of their host magmas. Cores of zoned plagioclase in low MgO (7.45wt%) basalt differ significantly with their mantle in An#, but are similar in An# with microlite cores (products of equilibrium crystallization) in high MgO (9.38wt%) basalt, which further shows that plagioclase phenocryst cores in low MgO basalts may have formed in their parental magmas before entering into the magma chamber.     

超大断面低扁平率公路隧洞先成预应力结构新型支护体系数值模拟

为适应日益增长的经济和交通发展需求,修建以4车道公路隧道为代表的超大断面低扁平率公路隧洞的需求初露端倪,这类隧道的低扁平率特征使传统的隧道支护体系面临许多困难,急待开发新型的隧洞支护体系。采用FLAC数值模拟平台研究了基于隧洞“先成结构法”支护理念的“先成预应力结构”新型支护体系在提高超大断面低扁平率公路隧洞洞室稳定性方面的效果,为“先成结构法”支护理念在超大断面低扁平率公路隧洞中的应用实施提供了有力的支持。     

岩爆破坏过程能量释放的数值模拟

岩爆是地下岩石开挖中的一种工程灾害现象,是岩体结构发生破坏时,由于内部储存的弹性能释放并转换为动能而造成动力形式的破坏。岩爆破坏过程中的能量释放与岩体在应力峰值前后的应力-应变特性紧密相关。另外,施工中开挖速度引起的加载速率的变化也会对岩爆的产生有明显影响。以岩体全过程应力-应变曲线试验为基础分析岩爆破坏过程。分析中采用的模型考虑了岩石峰值后应力-应变特性及加载速率的影响。运用数值方法对岩石洞室的开挖过程进行了模拟,在模拟中对岩体破坏的发生及弹性能释放过程进行了分析。数值分析结果显示,岩体洞室开挖过程中岩石破坏由岩体表面向岩体内部发展,岩石的弹性能释放率也随着破坏的发展而不断增加。分析结果还显示,岩体破坏时的弹性能释放速率会随着开挖速率的提高而明显增加。