The temporal hierarchy of shelters: a hierarchical location model for earthquake-shelter planning

The problem of emergency facility location is a critical component in evacuation planning. The emergence of geographic information systems (GIS) has provided a useful operational platform to assist this issue. A previously overlooked facet is the consideration of a hierarchical structure in the placement of emergency shelters. Due to the fact that survivors' needs change over time during post-disaster evacuations, shelters have now been categorized on a temporal scale based on their functions at different evacuation phases. This article proposes a three-level hierarchical location model for optimizing the placement of earthquake shelters by taking into account this temporal variance. The article not only scrutinizes the modeling procedure but also implements the model in a planning area with many real-world details. Based on the optimization results derived from a GIS context, we have found that the quality of the earthquake response procedure is not only dependent on the placement strategy of shelters, but more importantly on the financial constraints imposed on the planning and construction of these shelters. A discussion has been proposed to balance the trade-off between budget planning and evacuation efficiency. As the first attempt to model the hierarchical configuration of emergency shelters with specific focus on evacuees' escalating sheltering demands, this article will be of great significance in helping policy makers consider both the spatial and financial aspects of the strategic placement of emergency shelters.     

The smoothness of HASM

To smooth noises inherent in uniformly sampled dataset, the smoothness of high accuracy surface modeling (HASM) was explored, and a smoothing method of HASM (HASM-SM) was developed based on a penalized least squares method. The optimal smoothing parameter of HASM-SM was automatically obtained by means of the generalized cross-validation (GCV) method. For an efficient smoothing computation, discrete cosine transform was employed to solve the system of HASM-SM and to estimate the minimum GCV score, simultaneously. Two examples including a numerical test and a real-world example were employed to compare the smoothing ability of HASM-SM with that of GCV thin plate smoothing spline (TPS) and kriging. The numerical test indicated that the minimum GCV HASM-SM is averagely more accurate than TPS and kriging for noisy surface smoothing. The real-world example of smoothing a lidar-derived Digital Elevation Model (DEM) showed that HASM-SM has an obvious smoothing effect, which is on a par with TPS. In conclusion, HASM-SM provides an efficient tool for filtering noises in grid-based surfaces like remote sensing–derived images and DEMs.     

The inclusion of differentially assessed lands in urban growth model calibration: a comparison of two approaches using SLEUTH

This research sought to understand the role that differentially assessed lands (lands in the United States given tax breaks in return for their guarantee to remain in agriculture) play in influencing urban growth. Our method was to calibrate the SLEUTH urban growth model under two different conditions. The first used an excluded layer that ignored such lands, effectively rendering them available for development. The second treated those lands as totally excluded from development. Our hypothesis was that excluding those lands would yield better metrics of fit with past data. Our results validate our hypothesis since two different metrics that evaluate goodness of fit both yielded higher values when differentially assessed lands are treated as excluded. This suggests that, at least in our study area, differential assessment, which protects farm and ranch lands for tenuous periods of time, has indeed allowed farmland to resist urban development. Including differentially assessed lands also yielded very different calibrated coefficients of growth as the model tried to account for the same growth patterns over two very different excluded areas. Excluded layer design can greatly affect model behavior. Since differentially assessed lands are quite common through the United States and are often ignored in urban growth modeling, the findings of this research can assist other urban growth modelers in designing excluded layers that result in more accurate model calibration and thus forecasting.     

Sediment fingerprinting in fluvial systems： review of tracers,sediment sources and mixing models

Suspended sediments in fluvial systems originate from a myriad of diffuse and point sources, with the relative contribution from each source varying over time and space. The process of sediment fingerprinting focuses on developing methods that enable discrete sediment sources to be identified from a composite sample of suspended material. This review identifies existing methodological steps for sediment fingerprinting including fluvial and source sampling, and critically compares biogeochemical and physical tracers used in fingerprinting studies. Implications of applying different mixing models to the same source data are explored using data from 41 catchments across Europe, Africa, Australia, Asia, and North and South America. The application of seven commonly used mixing models to two case studies from the US （North Fork Broad River watershed） and France （Bldone watershed） with local and global （genetic algorithm） optimization methods identified all outputs remained in the acceptable range of error defined by the original authors. We propose future sediment fingerprinting studies use models that combine the best explanatory parameters provided by the modified Collins （using correction factors） and Hughes （relying on iterations involving all data, and not only their mean values） models with optimization using genetic algorithms to best predict the relative contribution of sediment sources to fluvial systems.     

Understanding and managing the morphology of branches incising into sand-clay deposits in the Dutch Rhine Delta

In the Rhine-Meuse delta in the south-western part of the Netherlands,the morphology of the river branches is highly dependent on the erodibility of the subsoil.Erosion processes that were initiated after closure of the Haringvliet estuary branch by a dam(in 1970),caused a strong incision of several connecting branches.Due to the geological evolution of this area the lithology of the subsoil shows large variations in highly erodible sand and poorly erodible peat and clay layers.This study shows how the geological information can be used to create 3D maps of the erodibility of the sub-soil, and how this information can be used to schematize the sub-soil in computational models for morphological simulations.Local incisement of sand patches between areas with poorly erodible bed causes deep scour holes,hence increasing the risk on river-bank instability(flow slides) and damage to constructions such as groynes,quays,tunnels, and pipelines.Various types of mathematical models,ranging from 1D(SOBEK) to quasi-3D(Delft3D) have been applied to study the future development of the river bed and possible management options.The results of these approaches demonstrate that models require inclusion of a layer-bookkeeping approach for sub-soil schematization, non-uniform sediment fractions(sand-mud),tidal and river-discharge boundary conditions,and capacity-reduction transport modeling.For risk-reducing river management it has been shown how the development of the river bed can be addressed on a large scale and small scale.For instance,the use of sediment feeding and fixation of bed can be proposed for large-scale management,while monitoring and interventions at initiation of erosion can be proposed as response to small-scale developments that exceed predefined intervention levels.     

有限元-无限元耦合法在复杂金属矿体电阻率/极化率正演模拟中的应用——以庐枞盆地泥河铁矿床为例

金属矿电法勘探由于受限于探测深度和复杂矿体形态的解释,在深部矿产资源勘探中难受重视.安徽庐江泥河铁矿床是长江中下游成矿带中最主要的矿床类型之一,矿区复杂的地质结构和矿体形态以及矿体的大深度赋存状态给地球物理勘探特别是电法勘探带来了很大的挑战.为了研究电阻率/极化率法在大深度复杂金属矿体探测中的应用效果,本文以泥河铁矿某勘探剖面为例,在实际矿区的地质模型基础上通过简化建立了相应的地球物理模型,采用偶极-偶极装置及二极装置,对矿区进行直流电阻率/极化率数值模拟.提出采用有限元-无限元耦合法以解决传统有限元法截断边界所引起的问题.理论和计算结果表明:有限元-无限元耦合法相比传统有限元法,能显著提高计算的效率和精度.偶极-偶极装置的视电阻率断面图较二极装置能更好的区分不同地层及磁铁矿异常,而根据铁矿高极化特性,探测深度相对较大的二极装置的视极化率断面图能够更好的反映出异常体位置及范围.     

地震尺度下碳酸盐岩储层的岩石物理建模方法(英文)

碳酸盐岩油藏的强非均质性以及孔隙结构的复杂性,使得作为连接油藏参数与地震参数重要桥梁的岩石物理模型,以及作为油藏预测和定量表征最有效工具的流体替换成为岩石物理建模的难点与重点。在碳酸盐岩储层复杂孔隙结构与地震尺度下碳酸盐岩储层非均质性分析基础上,研究采用岩石网格化方法,将地震尺度下非均质碳酸盐岩储层岩石划分为具有独立岩石参数的均质岩石子体,根据岩石孔隙成因与结构特征采用不同岩石物理模型分步计算岩石子块干岩石弹性模量,并根据不同孔隙连通性进行流体替换,计算饱和不同流体岩石弹性模量。基于计算的岩石子块弹性模量,采用Hashin-Shtrikman-Walpole弹性边界计算理论方法实现地震尺度下碳酸盐岩储层弹性参数计算。通过对含有不同类型孔隙组合碳酸盐岩储层模型的弹性模量进行计算与分析,明确不同孔隙对岩石弹性参数的影响特征,模拟分析结果与实际资料认识一致。     

Perfectly matched layer-absorbing boundary condition for finite-element time-domain modeling of elastic wave equations

The perfectly matched layer (PML) is a highly efficient absorbing boundary condition used for the numerical modeling of seismic wave equation. The article focuses on the application of this technique to finite-element time-domain numerical modeling of elastic wave equation. However, the finite-element time-domain scheme is based on the second-order wave equation in displacement formulation. Thus, the first-order PML in velocity-stress formulation cannot be directly applied to this scheme. In this article, we derive the finite-element matrix equations of second-order PML in displacement formulation, and accomplish the implementation of PML in finite-element time-domain modeling of elastic wave equation. The PML has an approximate zero reflection coefficients for bulk and surface waves in the finite-element modeling of P-SV and SH wave propagation in the 2D homogeneous elastic media. The numerical experiments using a two-layer model with irregular topography validate the efficiency of PML in the modeling of seismic wave propagation in geological models with complex structures and heterogeneous media.     

三维非均匀地质模型中的逐段迭代射线追踪

地震射线追踪是地震定位、层析成像、偏移等领域的重要正演环节.随着这些领域研究的深入,针对传统的网格结构和层状结构在描述复杂地质模型遇到的很大困难,我们采用大小不等、形状各异的地质块组成的集合体来描述三维复杂地质模型,并用三角形面片来描述地质块之间的物性间断面,理论上可以描述任意复杂的地质模型.为适应任意非均匀速度分布的地质模型,基于费马原理,本文发展了与之相适应的逐段迭代射线追踪方法.该方法属于弯曲法范畴,对路径点采用一阶显式增量修正,相对于传统的迭代法,高效省时.数值试验表明,联合逐段迭代法和伪弯曲法的射线追踪扰动修正方案在三维复杂非均匀块状模型中有适用性和高效性.     

Hydrological response characteristics of Mediterranean catchments at different time scales: a meta-analysis

ABSTRACT

This work examines 140 hydrological studies conducted in the Mediterranean region. It identifies key characteristics of the hydrological responses of Mediterranean catchments at various time scales and compares different methods and modelling approaches used for individual-catchment studies. The study area is divided into the northwestern (NWM), eastern (EM) and southern (SM) Mediterranean. The analysis indicates regional discrepancies in which the NWM shows the most extreme rainfall regime. A tendency for reduced water resources driven by both anthropogenic and climatic pressures and a more extreme rainfall regime are also noticeable. Catchments show very heterogeneous responses over time and space, resulting in limitations in hydrological modelling and large uncertainties in predictions. However, few models have been developed to address these issues. Additional studies are necessary to improve the knowledge of Mediterranean hydrological features and to account for regional specificities.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Associate editor A. Efstratiadis