基于应力变化的余震预测研究综述

本文综述了近期基于应力变化的余震预测研究进展。从静态库仑应力触发角度对余震活动进行研究主要有两方面内容:一是集中于对主震触发余震机制的讨论;二是通过库仑应力变化分布区域与实际余震空间分布区域进行定性对比分析,并认为库仑应力变化为正的区域有利于余震的发生,而这正是余震活动与应力变化高度相关的重要证据。基于应力变化的余震预测研究的一项重要内容是建立在速率-状态依从摩擦定律基础之上的余震活动率研究,即将余震活动作为一系列独立的成核事件,从断层滑动触发地震的角度出发,结合静态库仑应力计算得到余震活动率,进而得到余震数量。余震活动是与断层面上的剪切应力变化相关联的,余震活动率受应力扰动幅度、应力加载速率、断层基本物理特性及背景地震活动率等的影响。考虑到“余震激发余震”的特点,ETAS 模型与静态库仑应力变化相结合的研究方法提供了一条统计学与物理学方法(应力变化)相结合、能更完整地刻画余震活动特征的可能途径。     

应力演变方法及其在华北地区河北省的应用

本文研究了库仑应力变化与自1484年以来中国河北省内发生的强震的关系。华北板块在过去的一个世纪里有许多历史地震和一些破坏性的地震发生,其中包括1976年的唐山大地震(M = 7.8)。我们的研究包含了河北省及其邻近区域的最活跃的地震断裂带和频繁遭受过强烈地震的区域。华北板块,包括鄂尔多斯高原和华北平原,是中国太古宙克拉通的一部分,而且是世界上地震最活跃的地区之一。这些地震活动主要发生在东西向的走滑断裂带上。研究区域内的断裂活动导致了复杂的应力场。通过计算库仑破裂函数(ACFF)的变化来得出这个地区的地震灾害评估,这库仑破裂函数的变化是由强震(MS≥6.5)产生的同震滑动和主要区域性大断裂的连续构造载荷产生的应力引起的。在应力演化模型计算的每一步都对下一次可能触发的强震进行了估计,模型最终提出了易于发生即将到来的强烈活动断层段的理由。从而提供了未来地震危险性评价研究依据。在本文中,以张家口断裂,夏垫断裂,廊坊断裂的结果为例,说明通过计算得出的ACFF结果,对未来地震危险性提供依据是可行的。     

Shear velocity estimates in rough‐bed open‐channel flow

Shear velocity u_* is an important parameter in geophysical flows, in particular with respect to sediment transport dynamics. In this study, we investigate the feasibility of applying five standard methods [the logarithmic mean velocity profile, the Reynolds stress profile, the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) profile, the wall similarity and spectral methods] that were initially developed to estimate shear velocity in smooth bed flow to turbulent flow over a loose bed of coarse gravel (D₅₀ = 1·5 cm) under sub‐threshold conditions. The analysis is based on quasi‐instantaneous three‐dimensional (3D) full depth velocity profiles with high spatial and temporal resolution that were measured with an Acoustic Doppler Velocity Profiler (ADVP) in an open channel. The results of the analysis confirm the importance of detailed velocity profile measurements for the determination of shear velocity in rough‐bed flows. Results from all methods fall into a range of ± 20% variability and no systematic trend between methods was observed. Local and temporal variation in the loose bed roughness may contribute to the variability of the logarithmic profile method results. Estimates obtained from the TKE and Reynolds stress methods reasonably agree. Most results from the wall similarity method are within 10% of those obtained by the TKE and Reynolds stress methods. The spectral method was difficult to use since the spectral energy of the vertical velocity component strongly increased with distance from the bed in the inner layer. This made the choice of the reference level problematic. Mean shear stress for all experiments follows a quadratic relationship with the mean velocity in the flow. The wall similarity method appears to be a promising tool for estimating shear velocity under rough‐bed flow conditions and in field studies where other methods may be difficult to apply. This method allows for the determination of u_* from a single point measurement at one level in the intermediate range (0·3 < h < 0·6). Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

芦山地震前康定地温变化现象

近年来,中国大陆强震主要发生在巴颜喀拉地块周边,该地块成为近期中国大陆强震主体地区.在一些关键构造部位,开展地壳活动信息监测具有重要的实际意义.作者所在研究组专门研发了适于野外观测的无线地温遥测设备,在鲜水河断裂带建立了无线地温遥测台网.在2013年4月20日的芦山地震前后,观测到了一些值得关注的现象:从2013年1月31日开始,康定地温出现持续变化,并与台站周围小震活动存在良好的对应关系.根据温度与力之间的关系,基岩温度突变的内在本质是应力调整.从构造角度看,龙门山断裂带和鲜水河断裂带同属于巴颜喀拉地块的不同边界,康定测点与芦山地震之间存在关联性,上述温度变化可能与芦山地震有关.     

A numerical study of the behavior of fully grouted rockbolts under dynamic loading

The widespread preference for rockbolts in providing adequate rock stability in underground mines and man-made cavities make it necessary to obtain a better understanding of the response of these support systems. It is widely accepted that the fully grouted rockbolts provide better roof stability in areas of very poor roof condition which may be caused by high ground stress conditions. There is little information about the in situ behavior of these systems especially under dynamic loading. Hence, to study the behavior of fully grouted rockbolts under dynamic loading, a numerical modeling study was conducted using the FLAC^3D code. In this study the behavior of three types of fully grouted rockbolts were compared with each other including rockbolts with and without head plate and a yielding type one. The results of analyses indicated that under dynamic loading the fully grouted rockbolts without the head plate are incapable of controlling the rock mass movement. Although fully grouted rockbolts with head plate damp a considerable amount of the dynamic energy through friction as these bolts slide within the grout, but the elongation of the rockbolt is not possible due to the rapid breakage of the rockbolt–grout interface. Yielding rockbolts are the best choice for the absorption of the dynamic stress wave and controlling of the rock mass movement. The obtained results show that the optimal design of yielding rockbolt should be in such a way that after dynamic loading, anchoring part of bolt has a limited movement to prevent stress concentration in the shaft of rockbolt and its breakage.     

Dynamic model of mesoscale eddies. Eddy parameterization for coarse resolution ocean circulation models

In the framework of the eddy dynamic model developed in two previous papers (Dubovikov, M.S., Dynamical model of mesoscale eddies, Geophys. Astophys. Fluid Dyn., 2003, 97, 311–358; Canuto, V.M. and Dubovikov, M.S., Modeling mesoscale eddies, Ocean Modelling, 2004, 8, 1–30 referred as I–II), we compute the contribution of unresolved mesoscale eddies to the large-scale dynamic equations of the ocean. In isopycnal coordinates, in addition to the bolus velocity discussed in I–II, the mesoscale contribution to the large scale momentum equation is derived. Its form is quite different from the traditional down-gradient parameterization. The model solutions in isopycnal coordinates are transformed to level coordinates to parameterize the eddy contributions to the corresponding large scale density and momentum equations. In the former, the contributions due to the eddy induced velocity and to the residual density flux across mean isopycnals (so called Σ-term) are derived, both contributions being shown to be of the same order. As for the large scale momentum equation, as well as in isopycnal coordinates, the eddy contribution has a form which is quite different from the down-gradient expression.     

Impact of flood events on macrobenthic community structure on an intertidal flat developing in the Ohta River Estuary

We investigated the effects of river floods on the macrobenthic community of the intertidal flat in the Ohta River Estuary, Japan, from 2005 to 2010. Sediment erosion by flood events ranged from about 2–3 cm to 12 cm, and the salinity dropped to 0‰ even during low-intensity flood events. Cluster analysis of the macrobenthic population showed that the community structure was controlled by the physical disturbance, decreased salinity, or both. The opportunistic polychaete Capitella sp. was the most dominant species in all clusters, and populations of the long-lived polychaete Ceratonereis erythraeensis increased in years with stable flow and almost disappeared in years with intense flooding. The bivalve Musculista senhousia was also an important opportunistic species that formed mats in summer of the stable years and influenced the structure of the macrobenthic community. Our results demonstrate the substantial effects of flood events on the macrobenthic community structure.     

小江断裂带中段和南段井水位变化与形变分析

应用井孔-裂隙、微裂隙(孔隙)水流交换产生的潮汐水位-固体潮的位相差和振幅变化理论,结合井水位变化,分析小江断裂带中段和南段的形变特征.裂隙承压含水层条件下,地震波和构造应力引起的形变能够引起潮汐水位分波位相差和振幅的变化.地震波引起含水层与井孔之间水流交换增大,疏通裂隙而使渗透率增大,震后井水位潮汐分波相位差提前,其后裂隙内沉积物重新堵塞裂隙,渗透率降低,位相差逐渐下降.位相差的长期趋势性变化反映出含水层在构造应力作用下的应变信息.小江断裂带中段和南段形变变化不同.断裂带中段地区,观测井位相差和振幅趋势性下降,表明该区段不仅有走滑特性,并且具有挤压特征.小江断裂带与红河断裂带交会地区观测井振幅和位相差稳定,表明该区域没有受到明显的挤压,形变不明显.     

Projection of future world water resources under SRES scenarios: an integrated assessment

Abstract

Changes in water resources availability, as affected by global climate warming, together with changes in water withdrawal, could influence the world water resources stress situation. In this study, we investigate how the world water resources situation will likely change under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by integrating water withdrawal projections. First, the potential changes in water resources availability are investigated by a multi-model analysis of the ensemble outputs of six general circulation models (GCMs) from organizations worldwide. The analysis suggests that, while climate warming might increase water resources availability to human society, there is a large discrepancy in the size of the water resource depending on the GCM used. Secondly, the changes in water-stressed basins and the number of people living in them are evaluated by two indices at the basin scale. The numbers were projected to increase in the future and possibly to be doubled in the 2050s for the three SRES scenarios A1b, A2 and B1. Finally, the relative impacts of population growth, water use change and climate warming on world water resources are investigated using the global highly water-stressed population as an overall indicator. The results suggest that population and socio-economic development are the major drivers of growing world water resources stress. Even though water availability was projected to increase under different warming scenarios, the reduction of world water stress is very limited. The principal alternative to sustainable governance of world water resources is to improve water-use efficiency globally by effectively reducing net water withdrawal.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Gerten     

江苏省地电阻率年变化及其差异性探讨

以江苏省江宁地震台、新沂地震台和海安地震台为例,归纳了江苏省地电阻率年变化特征的类型,并对地电阻率年变化差异性的原因做了探讨。通过反演计算指出地电阻率年变化差异性的原因主要是由各观测场地地下电性结构造成的,分析这种不同有益于解决在场地选择中如何得到一个规则年变的场地,以便更好地服务于地震预报的数据处理。