Increasing critical sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before large earthquakes with identified stress accumulation pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.     

Structural and remote sensing studies of the southern Betsimisaraka Suture, Madagascar

An assessment of the southern Betsimisaraka Suture (B.S.) of southeastern Madagascar using remote sensing and field investigation reveals a complex deformation history. Image processing of Landsat ETM+data and JERS-I Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery was integrated with field observations of structural geology and field petrography. The southern B.S. divides the Precambrian basement rocks of Madagascar in two parts. The western part includes Proterozoic rocks whereas the eastern part is an Archean block, named the Masora block. The southern part of the B.S. includes high-grade metamorphic rocks, recording strong deformation and has mineral deposits including chromite, nickel, and emerald, characteristic of oceanic material that is compatible with a suture zone.Large-scale structural features indicate ductile deformation including three generations of folding (F1, F2, and F3) associated with dextral shearing. The first folding event (F1) shows a succession of folds with NE striking axial planes. The second folding event (F2) mainly has north–south striking axial planes and the last event (F3) is represented by mega folds that have ENE–WSW axial plane directions and have NNW and SSE contractional strain patterns. Closure of the Mozambique Ocean between two components of Gondwana sandwiched rocks of the B.S. and formed upright folds and shortening zones which produced N–S trending lineaments. Later dextral movements followed the contraction and formed NW–SE trending lineaments and N–S trending normal faults associated with dextral strike slip faults and fractures.     

Neoproterozoic alkaline magmatism at Sivamalai, southern India

The Sivamalai alkaline complex lies at the southern margin of the Cauvery Shear System that separates the Archaean and Proterozoic domains of the Southern Granulite Terrain in India. U–Pb TIMS dating of zircon from a pegmatitic syenite sample in the complex yields a concordant age of 590.2 ± 1.3 (2σ) Ma which is interpreted to date the intrusion of the alkaline rocks. A lower concordia intercept at 168 ± 210 Ma defined by two grains with high common lead may indicate post-magmatic disturbances due to recrystallisation which is also evident in the CL images of the zircons. EPMA dating of monazite from a post-kinematic pegmatite which intrudes the crystalline basement hosting the alkaline rocks yields an age of 478 ± 29 (2σ) Ma and provides a lower bracket for the main phase of tectonism in this part of the Southern Granulite Terrain. The Pan-African high-grade metamorphism and ductile deformation has thus most likely affected the alkaline rocks. This is supported by the presence of a metamorphic foliation and extensive recrystallisation textures seen in the rocks. The major and trace element concentrations measured on selected samples reveals the presence of both enriched and depleted rock types. The enriched group includes ferrosyenite and nepheline syenite while the depleted group has only nepheline syenites. The trace element depletion of some nepheline syenites is interpreted to be a result of fractional crystallization involving the removal of accessory phases like zircon, titanite, apatite and allanite.     

High-resolution sedimentary record of lead in the coastal mud of the East China Sea in the past one hundred and fifty years

In the East China Sea （ECS）, there are some mud areas, including the south coastal mud area, the north coastal mud area, and the mud area to the southwest of Cheju Island. X-ray fluorescence （XRF） techniques and Thermal Ionization Mass Spectrometry （TIMS） were used to study the high-resolution sedimentary record of Pb concentrations and Pb stable isotopic compositions in the past one hundred and fifty years in the coastal mud of the ECS. Pb concentrations of a ^210Pb dating S5 core in the study area have increased rapidly since 1980, and reached the maximal value with 65.08 μg/g in 2000, corresponding to the fast economic development of China since the implementation of the ＂Reform and Open Policy＂ in 1978; ^206Pb/^207Pb ratios generally had stabilized at 1.195 from 1860 to 1966, and decreased gradually from 1966 to 2000, indicating that the anthropogenic source Pb contribution to the ECS has increased gradually since 1966, especially since 1980. Pb concentrations decreased distinctly from 2000 to 2003 and ^206Pb/^207Pb ratios increased from 2001 to 2003, corresponding closely to the ban of lead gasoline from 2000 in China. From 1950 to 2003, there occurred four distinct decrease events of ^206Pb/^207Pb, possibly responding to the Changjiang River （Yangtze River） catastrophic floods in 1998, 1991, 1981 and 1954; from 1860 to 1966, there were two decrease periods of ^206Pb/^207Pb, which may respond to the catastrophic floods of Changjiang River in 1931 and 1935, and 1870. As a result of the erosion and drowning by the catastrophic floods, the anthropogenic lead accumulated in soil and water environments over a long period of time was brought into the Changjiang River, then part of them was finally transported into the ECS, which leads to changes in Pb stable isotopic composition.     

The effect of acid deposition on base cation cycling in a karstic-forested catchment： Evidence from strontium isotopes

Bedrock weathering and atmospheric deposition are the two primary sources of base cations （K^＋, Na^＋, Ca^2＋ and Mg^2＋） to forest ecosystems. Therefore, the key problem is to understand the relative inputs from these two sources and the cycling in the ecosystem. This study focuses on the effects of acid deposition on cation cycling in a small-forested karstic catchment in Guizhou Province. Sr isotope ratios were used as a tracer for understanding the transport process between the different cation pools： rock, soil, surface water, atmospheric deposition and plant. The samples of wet deposition, total deposition, throughfall, surface and ground waters, vegetation, and soil were monthly collected. The exchangeable Sr^2＋ and Ca^2＋ in soil samples were extracted by using 1 M ammonium acetate. The leaf-tissue samples were ashed at 550℃, and the residue was digested in ultrapure HClO4 and HNO3. All water samples were filtrated through 0.45 μm aperture filter paper. Base cation concentrations and Sr isotopic composition were analyzed for all the samples. The results show that acid deposition （average pH 4.9） frequently occurred in the studied region. Cation abundance follows an increasing manner from rainwater, throughfall, to surface water or ground water samples, suggesting that acid deposition at first eiuviates Ca^2＋ , Mg^2＋ and Sr^2＋ from leaf, then the exchangeable cations from soil, and at last cations accumulate in surface water or ground water.     

Carbonates calibrated against oceanographic parameters along a latitudinal transect in the Gulf of California, Mexico

Trophic resources are an important control governing carbonate production. Though this importance has long been recognized, no calibration exists to quantitatively compare biogenic assemblages within trophic resource fields. This study presents a field calibration of carbonate producers in a range of settings against high‐resolution in situ measurements of nutrients, temperature and salinity. With its latitudinal extent from 30° to 23° N, the Gulf of California, Mexico, spans the warm‐temperate realm and encompasses nutrient regimes from oligo‐mesotrophic in the south to eutrophic in the north. Accordingly, from south to north carbonates are characterized by: (i) coral‐dominated shallow carbonate factories (5–20 m water depth) with average sea‐surface temperatures of 25 °C (min. 18 °C, max. 31 °C), average salinities of 35·06‰ and average chlorophyll a levels, which are a proxy for nutrients, of 0·25 mg Chl a m^?3 (max. 0·48, min. 0·1). (ii) Red algal‐dominated subtidal to inner‐shelf carbonate formation (10–25 m) in the central Gulf of California exhibiting average temperatures of 23 °C (min. 18 °C, max. 30 °C), average salinities of 35·25‰, and average Chl a levels of 0·71 Chl a m^?3 (max. 5·62, min. 0). (iii) Molluskan bryozoan‐rich inner to outer shelf factories in the northern Gulf of California (20–50 m) with average sea surface temperatures of only 20 °C (min. 13 °C, max 29 °C), average salinities of 35·01‰, and average contents of 2·2 mg Chl a m^?3 (max. 8·38, min. 0). By calibrating sedimentological data with in situ measured oceanographic information in different environments, the response of carbonate producers to environmental parameters was established and extrapolated to carbonates on a global scale. The results demonstrate the importance of recognizing and quantifying trophic resources as a dominant control determining the biogenic composition and facies character of both modern and fossil carbonates.     

Aragonite cycles: diagenesis caught in the act

Organic biomarker and nannofossil assemblages are used in combination with sedimentary petrology to identify the role of diagenesis for the formation of a rhythmic calcareous succession. A record from the Early Pliocene of the Maldives (Ocean Drilling Program, ODP Leg 115) is presented containing precession and eccentricity cycles expressed as variable aragonite content. Additional sub‐Milankovitch cycles are caused by rhythmic precipitation of calcite cement in the lower part of the interval. Comparison with palaeo‐productivity indicators (nannofossils, chlorin, total organic carbon) suggests that cementation occurs preferentially in intervals characterized by increasing or decreasing productivity. The coupled variability in productivity and carbonate diagenesis is attributed to the effect of organic matter degradation in the sediment. The observed combination of primary and diagenetic factors hampers the interpretation of the cyclicity on Milankovitch and sub‐Milankovitch scales. Diagenetically stable proxies for palaeo‐productivity, such as nannofossil assemblage data, were used to distinguish between palaeoclimate and diagenetic influences.     

Hydrology and hydrogeology of Sakaryabaşı Karstic springs, Çifteler, Turkey

The Sakarya River is one of the largest rivers in Turkey and is fed mainly from Sakaryabaşı springs. The Sakaryabaşı springs are located in the Central Anatolia and issue from confined/semi-confined karst having a thermal component and therefore, having quite different hydrogeological characteristics as compared to the Taurus Karst region, a typical example of the Mediterranean type of karst. The karstic carbonate rocks that form the groundwater reservoir are overlain by a thick semi-pervious overburden of mainly clastics of Neogene age. Tectonics is the major factor controlling the occurrence of the karst springs in the area where topography is rather flat. This study aimed at explaining the occurrence and movement of the karst groundwater within the system by use of hydrogeological, chemical, and isotopic tools. Isotopic composition of the waters revealed that all waters in the region are of meteoric origin and the thermal component is due to deep circulation. The catchment area of the hydrogeological system extends to the south and groundwater movement is towards the outlets, which are in a depression along a major fault. The movement of the groundwater, based on analysis of remotely sensed images, is controlled mainly by structural elements.     

Three-dimensional model and late stage warping of the Plattengneis Shear Zone in the Eastern Alps

The Plattengneis shear zone is a 250–600 m thick, flat lying, Cretaceous, eclogite facies, mylonitic shear zone, with north-over-south transport direction, that is exposed over almost 1000 km² in the Koralpe region along the eastern margin of the Alps. Although the shear zone is one of the largest in the Alps, its role in the Eoalpine metamorphic evolution and the subsequent exhumation of the region, remain enigmatic and its large-scale geometry is not well understood. The outcrop pattern suggests that the shear zone is made up of a single sheet that is folded into a series of open syn- and antiforms with wavelengths of about 10 km. Eclogite bodies occur above, within and below the shear zone and there is no metamorphic grade change across the shear zone. In the south, the fold axes strike east–west and plunge shallowly to the east. In the north, the fold axes are oriented in north–south direction and form a dome shaped structure of the shear zone. Total shortening during this late stage warping event was of the order of 5%. Indirect evidence constrains this folding event to have occurred between 80 and 50 Ma and the fold geometry implies that the final exhumation in the Koralpe occurred somewhat later than further north. Interestingly, the shear zone appears to strike out of the topography in the south and dip into the topography in the north, so that north of the shear zone only hanging-wall rocks are exposed and south of it only foot-wall rocks. Possibilities for the geometric relationship of the Plattengneis shear zone with the surrounding south dipping detachments are discussed.     

Correlations in aftershock and seismicity patterns

Correlations in space and time play a fundamental role in earthquake processes. One direct manifestation of the effects of correlations is the occurrence of aftershocks due to the stress transfer in the vicinity of a main shock. Less obvious and more speculative changes in correlations may occur in the background seismicity before large earthquakes. Using statistical physics it is possible to introduce a measure of spatial correlations through a correlation length. This quantity characterizes how local fluctuations can influence the occurrence of earthquakes over distances comparable with the correlation length. In this work, the physical basis of spatial correlations of earthquakes is discussed in the context of critical phenomena and the percolation problem. The method of two-point correlation function is applied to the seismicity of California. Well defined variations in time of the correlation length are found for aftershock sequences and background seismicity. The scaling properties of our obtained distributions are analyzed with respect to changes in several scaling parameters such as lower magnitude cutoff of earthquakes, the maximum time interval between earthquakes, and the spatial size of the area considered. This scaling behavior can be described in a unified manner by utilizing the multifractal fit. Utilizing the percolation approach the time evolution of clusters of earthquakes is studied with the correlation length defined in terms of the radius of gyration of clusters. This method is applied to the seismicity of California.