Verification of the motion fields over Southeast Asia by the Florida State University (FSU) superensemble forecast

The Florida State University (FSU) multimodel superensemble forecast is evaluated against several other operational weather models for the Southeast Asia region. The superensemble technique has demonstrated its exceptional skills in forecasting precipitation, motion and mass fields compared to either individual global operational or ensemble mean forecasts. The motion field investigation for the season of 2001 reveals that the superensemble forecasts are closer to the observed data compared to the other global member operational models through its low systematic errors at the 850 hPa level. The FSU multimodel superensemble forecasts exhibit the lowest root mean square errors (RSMEs), the highest correlation against the best observed data and the lowest systematic errors compared to the other operational model members. These forecasts have the potential to provide better daily weather predictions over the Southeast Asia region, particularly during the early northeast monsoon that often causes heavy rainfall in the equatorial part of the Southeast Asia region.     

Natural and man-induced stress evolution of slopes: the Monte Mario hill in Rome

The paper deals with stress-release effects induced by man-made cuts or excavations into natural stiff clay slopes that experienced erosion in response to valley deepening. The study was focused on the Monte Mario hill in Rome (Italy), which formed part of an area of recent urban expansion. The methodology of the study relied on a reference engineering-geology model, which was developed on the basis of site and laboratory data and stress–strain analyses. The latter analyses were carried out with the finite-difference code FLAC 4.0. Numerical modelling was based on a sequential approach, taking into account the main evolutionary stages of the Tiber river valley in Romeȁ9s urban area and then making cuts at the bottom of the slope located south of the Monte Mario Astronomical Observatory. The simulation revealed the stress-release effects that fluvial erosion and excavation fronts have caused on the investigated slopes and their consequent gravitational instabilities. These processes appear with metre-scale displacements, followed by stress-release cracks (actually observed on the slopes under review). In quantifying stress-release deformations, the simulation took into account the possible role of creep in the observed retardation of stress-release effects.Research activities were carried on with the co-operation of Dȁ9Arcangelo A. (Consorzio TREESSE, andrea.darcangelo@libero.it) and Moretti S. (IMG S.r.l. Servizi Tecnici per lȁ9Ingegneria e lȁ9Ambiente, moretti@img-srl.it)     

Elastic properties and stability of coexisting 3T and 2M 1 phengite polytypes

The elastic properties of coexisting natural 3T and 2M ₁ phengite samples (Cima Pal, Sesia Zone; Val Savenca; Western Alps, Italy) with similar chemical compositions have been studied by room temperature–high pressure powder diffraction, using synchrotron radiation on the ID9A beam-line at ESRF (Grenoble, France). The P–V curves have been modelled by the Birch–Murnaghan model; a third-order expansion fitted to the experimental data yields for 3T and 2M ₁ K ₀=60.4(±0.7) GPa, K′=5.79(±0.11) at V ₀=703.8851 ų, and K ₀=57.3(±1.0) GPa, K′=6.97(±0.24) at V ₀=938.8815 ų, respectively. The relative stability of 3T vs. 2M ₁ has been explored as a function of pressure and temperature in terms of configuration and deformation contributions to the Gibbs energy, using the elastic properties determined here and other thermodynamic parameters from earlier investigations. The results presented agree with the hypothesis of stability of the 3T polytype in the high pressure regime.     

Initiation and development of pull-apart basins with Riedel shear mechanism: insights from scaled clay experiments

Typical pull-apart structures were created in scaled clay experiments with a pure strike-slip geometry (Riedel type experiments). A clay slab represents the sedimentary cover above a strike-slip fault in the rigid basement. At an early stage of the development of the deformation zone, synthetic shear fractures (Riedel shears) within the clay slab display dilatational behaviour. With increasing basal displacement the Riedel shears rotate and open further, developing into long, narrow and deep troughs. The shear displacement and the low angle with the prescribed principal basal fault set them apart from tension gashes. At a more evolved stage, synthetic segments (Y-shears) parallel to the basal principal fault develop and accommodate progressive strike-slip deformation. The Y-shears connect the tips of adjacent troughs developed from the earlier Riedel shears, resulting in the typical rhomb-shaped structures characteristic for pull-apart basins. The Strait of Sicily rift zone, with major strike-slip systems being active from the Miocene to the Present, comprises pull-apart basins at different length scales, for which the structural record suggests development by a mechanism similar to that observed in our experiments.     

Formation of iron-containing colloids by the weathering of phyllite

The formation of colloids during the weathering of phyllite was investigated by exposing ground phyllite to Milli-Q water. Secondary mineral colloids of 10¹–10² nm were detected in significant concentrations. At pH of about 8.5, the solution concentration of these colloids reached up to 10 mg/L (however, acidification to pH 4.0 prevented the formation of the colloids). The mineralogical composition of the secondary mineral colloids is assumed to be a mixture of ferrihydrite, manganese oxyhydroxides, aluminosilicates, amorphous Al(OH)₃ and gibbsite with possible additions of iron silicates and␣iron-alumino silicates. The colloids were stable over longer periods of time (at least several weeks), even in the presence of suspended ground rock. Direct formation of iron-containing secondary mineral colloids at the rock–water interface by the weathering of rock material is an alternative to the well-known mechanism of iron colloid formation in the bulk of water bodies by mixing of different waters or by aeration of anoxic waters. This direct mechanism is of relevance for colloid production during the weathering of freshly crushed rock in the unsaturated zone as for instance crushed rock in mine waste rock piles. Colloids produced by this mechanism, too, can influence the transport of contaminants such as actinides because these colloids have a large specific surface area and a high sorption affinity.     

Potential of High-Resolution Satellite Data in the Context of Vulnerability of Buildings

High-resolution space-borne remote sensing data are investigated for their potential to extract relevant parameters for a vulnerability analysis of buildings in European countries. For an evaluation of large earthquake scenarios, the number of parameters in models for vulnerability is reduced to a minimum of relevant information such as the type of building (age, material, number of storeys) and the geological and spatial context. Building-related parameters can be derived from remote sensing data either directly (e.g. height) or indirectly based on the recognition of the urban structure type in which the buildings are located. With the potential of a fully- or semi-automatic inventory of the buildings and their parameters, high-resolution satellite data and techniques for their processing are a useful supporting tool for the assessment of vulnerability.     

Fast computation of Hankel Transform using orthonormal exponential approximation of complex kernel function

The computation of electromagnetic (EM) fields, for 1-D layered earth model, requires evaluation of Hankel Transform (HT) of the EM kernel function. The digital filtering is the most widely used technique to evaluate HT integrals. However, it has some obvious shortcomings. We present an alternative scheme, based on an orthonormal exponential approximation of the kernel function, for evaluating HT integrals. This approximation of the kernel function was chosen because the analytical solution of HT of an exponential function is readily available in literature. This expansion reduces the integral to a simple algebraic sum. The implementation of such a scheme requires that the weights and the exponents of the exponential function be estimated. The exponents were estimated through a guided search algorithm while the weights were obtained using Marquardt matrix inversion method. The algorithm was tested on analytical HT pairs available in literature. The results are compared with those obtained using the digital filtering technique with Anderson filters. The field curves for four types (A-, K-, H-and Q-type) of 3-layer earth models are generated using the present scheme and compared with the corresponding curves obtained using the Anderson sc heme. It is concluded that the present scheme is more accurate than the Anderson scheme     

On global forces of nature driving the Earth’s climate. Are humans involved?

The authors identify and describe the following global forces of nature driving the Earth’s climate: (1) solar radiation as a dominant external energy supplier to the Earth, (2) outgassing as a major supplier of gases to the World Ocean and the atmosphere, and, possibly, (3) microbial activities generating and consuming atmospheric gases at the interface of lithosphere and atmosphere. The writers provide quantitative estimates of the scope and extent of their corresponding effects on the Earth’s climate. Quantitative comparison of the scope and extent of the forces of nature and anthropogenic influences on the Earth’s climate is especially important at the time of broad-scale public debates on current global warming. The writers show that the human-induced climatic changes are negligible.     

The geography of suicide terrorism in Israel

Palestinian suicide terrorism has been a key feature in the latest phase of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. During the past decade, and particularly since September 2000, there has been a substantial increase in the use of this type of warfare. Recent studies suggest that, contrary to common belief, suicide terrorism is highly rational and driven by strategic considerations. This article explores the rationality of Palestinian suicide terrorism from a geographical perspective. It is argued that suicide terrorism works along two parallel paths: rationality and randomness. It complies with geographical fundamentals, and target selection is highly rational, subject to spatial considerations such as distance, agglomeration, and accessibility. As the permeability to Israel became more difficult, suicide bombers and their organizers had to adopt more flexible practices which emphasized other spatial considerations. Timing is of importance both for strategic and tactical reasoning. Obstructing negotiations and peace talks has been a salient objective, but the exact timing of suicide bombings has been influenced by tactical considerations, which aim at maximizing casualties.     

重庆市开-利公路学堂湾滑坡成因与稳定性分析

滑坡是现代公路、铁路等交通基建工程面临的一个难题。尤其是在重丘、山地等地段修筑公路工程极易出现滑坡地质灾害。这些滑坡的成因以及相关的边坡稳定性分析目前处于半理论、半经验状态。文章基于学堂湾滑坡的地理位置及地质环境条件,从滑坡区地质环境条件、滑坡周界、滑坡体与滑带的物质结构特征、滑床、滑坡变形破坏迹象等,深入分析了学堂湾滑坡的变形特征。在此基础上探讨了滑坡成因,指出大量的雨水和不合理的施工扰动是滑坡发育的外因;坡体本身的地质条件如岩石的裂隙、岩土体的透水性以及水的疏导条件等是其内因。文章将宏观定性分析与定量计算相结合,对滑坡稳定性进行了分析和评价。结合工程实际对滑坡治理措施进行了初步研究,取得了一些满意的效果。