北半球冰川物质平衡的突变

据世界冰川监测处（ＷＧＭＳ）收集,编辑和出版的全球冰川物质平衡序列资料,用序列平均滑动ｔ检验,探测了北半球２０ａ以上长序列３３条冰川的１０ａ尺度突变。结果表明,突变发生年代的区域特征与气候环流背景突变很相近。证实冰川年物质平衡序列反映气候背景突出的能力与灵敏性。     

近50年来北极斯瓦尔巴地区冰川物质平衡变化特征

利用长时间序列的冰川物质平衡资料,详细分析了北极斯瓦尔巴地区冰川的物质平衡变化特征以及气候因子对物质平衡的影响。结果表明：近50年来斯瓦尔巴地区冰川物质平衡变化主要呈负平衡、零平衡/略微增长两种状态。冰川净平衡一般为负值,年际变化波动幅度较大且呈负平衡趋势,累积物质平衡表现出长期稳定的负平衡增长态势。除Kongsvegen冰川外,其他冰川不存在短期内的平衡波动。季节变化表现为夏季消融、冬季积累,且夏季消融比冬季积累波动更大,冰川净平衡与夏季消融保持同步变化趋势。冰川净平衡与平衡线高度（ELA）呈负相关（平均相关系数为-0.89）,与积累区面积比率（AAR）呈正相关（平均相关系数为0.84）,该地区大多数冰川AAR减小,说明冰川物质补给处于劣势,冰川物质平衡向负平衡发展。夏季气温升高是斯瓦尔巴地区冰川表面物质加速亏损的直接原因。     

黑河下游绿洲地表辐射平衡及小气候特征分析

利用额济纳绿洲2004年5~10月微气象站观测资料,分析了该地区地表能量平衡及小气候特征.结果表明:在绿洲内太阳总辐射、光合有效辐射、净辐射有明显的季节变化及日变化,日峰值及月总量在7月份达到最高.地表能量平衡季节变化显著,5、8、9、10月份,地面能量交换基本以感热通量为主,Bowen比值在日间>4;6、7月份,潜热蒸发是能量平衡的主要部分,Bowen比基本<1.5~10月土壤热通量值始终较小,约占净辐射的15%~20%.绿洲内近地层风速基本在0~5 m·s^-1之间,夜间风速变化很小,日间风速较大.随着土壤深度的增加,土壤温度变化趋势越来越缓慢,地表温度波动变化最大,而在40 cm深处土壤温度日变化很小.     

西南某山区机场的工程地质分区及其评价

工程地质分区作为山区机场工程地质勘察的重要组成部分,将直接影响其勘察的精度和质量,并关系到机场建设的周期和投资预算。文章以西南某山区机场勘察为例,在综合分析研究区工程地质条件的基础上,对研究区影响工程地质分区的受控因素进行了探讨,并对各区段的主要工程地质问题进行了综合评价。     

孔隙流体压力与流体排驱的关系

本文讨论了在压实作用下孔隙流体压力的形成以及与流体排驱的关系，指出异常孔隙流体压力是因岩石渗透率变化引起毛细管力增加而产生的，且二者之间在流体压力孕育过程中一直维持一个动态平衡状态。对于连续沉积的盆地，只有当异常孔隙流体压力增加到超过岩石的抗剪强度时，因岩石发生剪切破裂导致毛细管力降低，流体才被排出；对于强烈构造变动的盆地，因地层大量剥蚀引起负荷压力降低，其降低幅度达到或超过岩石的抗张强度时，岩石     

青藏高原水文模拟的现状及未来

介绍了青藏高原水文模拟的研究现状和发展趋势。水文模拟是研究水文过程的主要手段,可为流域水资源管理及防灾减灾提供理论和决策支持。国际上第一代水文模型为"集总式",第二代水文模型为"分布式",但它们大都以描述降水—产流的水分输移为主("水圈"),未仔细考虑陆—气水热交换中植被的调节作用("生物圈—大气圈")。近10年来,在气候变化的背景下,随着大气科学以及生态学的蓬勃发展,分布式水文模型开始描述生物圈—大气圈相互作用;通过改进陆—气间的水热交换过程以及植被的生理过程,实现了对流域水圈—生物圈—大气圈的综合模拟。然而,针对显著受冰冻圈过程影响的青藏高原,需要深入研究冰冻圈与其他圈层(水圈/生物圈/大气圈)的相互作用机理,并实现其在水文模拟中的参数化,以提升区域水资源和水灾害的预测能力。     

“00.7”北京特大暴雨模拟中气象资料同化作用的评估

针对2000年7月4～5日北京地区的一次特大暴雨过程(24 h降水量达240 mm),文中利用MM5/WRF三维变分系统和MM5非静力模式,对此次特大暴雨过程中的各种气象监测资料(地基GPS大气柱水汽含量、常规探空、高空测风、地面常规观测和地面自动气象站)的同化作用通过观测系统数值试验进行了评估.结果表明与传统的客观分析方案相比较,MM5/WRF三维变分同化系统可直接引入非常规地基GPS大气柱水汽含量监测资料,提供更好的大气初始分析场.在三维变分同化方案下,各种大气监测资料均对改进此次特大暴雨模拟有不同程度的贡献,其中,常规探空和高空测风监测资料对改进预报结果的影响最大,地面常规观测和地面自动气象站观测资料作用次之,地基GPS大气柱水汽含量资料在与其他大气监测资料相互优势互补后,可很好地改善模式大气的分析质量,通过三维变分同化技术在区域数值天气预报模式初始场中引入地基GPS大气水汽监测网资料,使此次强降水个例的6 h和24 h测站降水预报的TS评分值在1,5,10和20 mm预报检验阈值下分别提高了1%～8%.研究结果对利用三维变分数值系统,评估气象监测网资料在改进高影响天气事件预报中的作用有借鉴意义.     

西风爆发时赤道西太平洋的热量平衡：个例分析

The responses of sea surface temperature (SST) in the western equatorial Pacific warm pool to the west erly wind bursts (WWBs) play an important role in the relationship between WWB and ENSO. By using da ta collected from eight buoys of TOGA (Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere)-COARE (Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment), the heat balances of the upper ocean in the western equatorial Pacific around 0°. 156°E during two WWB events were calculated according to Stevenson and Niiler＇s (1983) method. In both events, SST increased before and after the WWBs, while decreased within the WWBs. The SST amplitudes approximated to l℃. Although sometimes the horizontal heat advections may become the biggest term in the heat balance, the variation of SST was dominated by the surface heat flux. On the other aspect, some different features of the two events are also revealed. The two cases have different variation of mixed layer depth. The depth of mixed layer is almost double in the first case (35 m to 70 m), which is caused by Ekman convergence, while only 10m increments due to entrainment in the second one. There are also differences in the currents structure. The different variations of thermal and currents struc ture in the mixing layers accounted for the different variation of the heat balance during the two events, es pecially the advection and residue terms. The seasonal variation of SST in this area is also investigated sim ply. The first WWB event happened just during the seasonal transition. So we considered that it is a normal season transition rather than a so-called anomaly. That also suggested that the seasonal distinction of the WWB is worthy of more attention in the researches of its relationship to ENSO.     

Estimation of turbulent sensible heat and momentum fluxes over a heterogeneous urban area using a large aperture scintillometer

The accurate determination of surface-layer turbulent fluxes over urban areas is critical to understanding urban boundary layer (UBL) evolution. In this study, a remote-sensing technique using a large aperture scintillometer (LAS) was investigated to estimate surface-layer turbulent fluxes over a highly heterogeneous urban area. The LAS system, with an optical path length of 2.1 km, was deployed in an urban area characterized by a complicated land-use mix (residential houses, water body, bare ground, etc.). The turbulent sensible heat (Q H) and momentum fluxes (τ) were estimated from the scintillation measurements obtained from the LAS system during the cold season. Three-dimensional LAS footprint modeling was introduced to identify the source areas ("footprint") of the estimated turbulent fluxes. The analysis results showed that the LAS-derived turbulent fluxes for the highly heterogeneous urban area revealed reasonable temporal variation during daytime on clear days, in comparison to the land-surface process-resolving numerical modeling. A series of sensitivity tests indicated that the overall uncertainty in the LAS-derived daytime Q H was within 20%-30% in terms of the influence of input parameters and the non-dimensional similarity function for the temperature structure function parameter, while the estimation errors in τ were less sensitive to the factors of influence, except aerodynamic roughness length. The 3D LAS footprint modeling characterized the source areas of the LAS-derived turbulent fluxes in the heterogeneous urban area, revealing that the representative spatial scales of the LAS system deployed with the 2.1 km optical path distance ranged from 0.2 to 2 km2 (a "micro-α scale"), depending on local meteorological conditions.     

WINTERTIME MIDDLE EAST SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY JET STREAM INTERANNUAL VARIATION CHARACTERISTICS AND ITS POSSIBLE PHYSICAL FACTORS

Using National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) monthly reanalysis data and an extended reconstruction of the sea surface temperature data provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the basic characteristics of the interannual variation in the wintertime Middle East subtropical westerly jet stream (MEJ) and its possible physical factors are studied. The results show that the climatological mean MEJ axis extends southwestward-northeastward and that its center lies in the northwest part of the Arabian Peninsula. The south-north shift of the MEJ axis and its intensity show obvious interannual variations that are closely related to the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the mid-high latitude atmospheric circulation. The zonal symmetric response of the Asian jet to the ENSO-related tropical convective forcing causes the MEJ axis shift, and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) causes the middle-western MEJ axis shift. Due to the influences of both the zonal symmetric response of the Asian jet to the ENSO-related tropical convective forcing and the dynamical role of the AO, an east-west out-of-phase MEJ axis shift is observed. Furthermore, the zonal asymmetric response to the ENSO-related tropical convective forcing can lead to an anomalous Mediterranean convergence (MC) in the high troposphere. The MC anomaly excites a zonal wave train along the Afro-Asian jet, which causes the middle-western MEJ axis shift. Under the effects of both the zonal symmetric response to the ENSO-related tropical convective forcing and the wave train along the Afro-Asian jet excited by the MC anomaly, an east-west in-phase MEJ axis shift pattern is expressed. Finally, the AO affects the MEJ intensity, whereas the East Atlantic (EA) teleconnection influences the middle-western MEJ intensity. Under the dynamical roles of the AO and EA, the change in the MEJ intensity is demonstrated.