Are modern metaheuristics successful in calibrating simple conceptual rainfall–runoff models?

In recent years sampling approaches have been used more widely than optimization algorithms to find parameters of conceptual rainfall–runoff models, but the difficulty of calibration of such models remains in dispute. The problem of finding a set of optimal parameters for conceptual rainfall–runoff models is interpreted differently in various studies, ranging from simple to relatively complex and difficult. In many papers, it is claimed that novel calibration approaches, so-called metaheuristics, outperform the older ones when applied to this task, but contradictory opinions are also plentiful. The present study aims at calibration of two simple lumped conceptual hydrological models, HBV and GR4J, by means of a large number of metaheuristic algorithms. The tests are performed on four catchments located in regions with relatively similar climatic conditions, but on different continents. The comparison shows that, although parameters found may somehow differ, the performance criteria achieved with simple lumped models calibrated by various metaheuristics are very similar and differences are insignificant from the hydrological point of view. However, occasionally some algorithms find slightly better solutions than those found by the vast majority of methods. This means that the problem of calibration of simple lumped HBV or GR4J models may be deceptive from the optimization perspective, as the vast majority of algorithms that follow a common evolutionary principle of survival of the fittest lead to sub-optimal solutions.     

Comparison of two rainfall–runoff models: effects of conceptualization on water budget components

Rainfall–runoff models with different conceptual structures for the hydrological processes can be calibrated to effectively reproduce the hydrographs of the total runoff, while resulting in water budget components that are essentially different. This finding poses an open question on the reliability of rainfall–runoff models in reproducing hydrological components other than those used for calibration. In an effort to address this question, we use data from the Glafkos catchment in western Greece to calibrate and compare the ENNS model, a research-oriented lumped model developed for the river Enns in Austria developed for the river Enns in Austria, with the operational MIKE SHE model. Model performance is assessed in the light of the conceptual/structural differences of the modelled hydrological processes, using indices calculated independently for each year, rather than for the whole calibration period, since the former are stricter. We show that even small differences in the representation of hydrological processes may impact considerably on the water budget components that are not measured (i.e. not used for model calibration). From all water budget components, direct runoff exhibits the highest sensitivity to structural differences and related model parameters.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman

ASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Huang     

Hydrological system analysis and modelling of the Kara River basin (West Africa) using a lumped metric conceptual model

This paper discusses the analysis and modelling of the hydrological system of the basin of the Kara River, a transboundary river in Togo and Benin, as a necessary step towards sustainable water resources management. The methodological approach integrates the use of discharge parameters, flow duration curves and the lumped conceptual model IHACRES. A Sobol sensitivity analysis is performed and the model is calibrated by applying the shuffled complex evolution algorithm. Results show that discharge generation in three nested catchments of the basin is affected by landscape physical characteristics. The IHACRES model adequately simulates the rainfall–runoff dynamics in the basin with a mean modified Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency measure of 0.6. Modelling results indicate that parameters controlling rainfall transformation to effective rainfall are more sensitive than those routing the streamflow. This study provides insights into understanding the catchment’s hydrological system. Nevertheless, further investigations are required to better understand detailed runoff generation processes.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman; ASSOCIATE EDITOR N Verhoest     

Evaluation of nonlinear models for precipitation forecasting

Prediction of factors affecting water resources systems is important for their design and operation. In hydrology, wavelet analysis (WA) is known as a new method for time series analysis. In this study, WA was combined with an artificial neural network (ANN) for prediction of precipitation at Varayeneh station, western Iran. The results obtained were compared with the adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and ANN. Moreover, data on relative humidity and temperature were employed in addition to rainfall data to examine their influence on precipitation forecasting. Overall, this study concluded that the hybrid WANN model outperformed the other models in the estimation of maxima and minima, and is the best at forecasting precipitation. Furthermore, training and transfer functions are recommended for similar studies of precipitation forecasting.     

Structural style and tectono-stratigraphic evolution of the Neogene–Quaternary Siderno Basin,southern Calabrian Arc,Italy

The Neogene–Quaternary Siderno Basin is located in the southern Calabrian Arc, along an E–W transect including the Ionian side and part of the Tyrrhenian margin. The orogenic belt was generated by ongoing northward subduction of Ionian oceanic lithosphere beginning in the Early Cretaceous. Since the Oligocene, the area has experienced complex tectonics, including NW–SE-oriented pull-apart basins. The forearc region contains >2000 m of Oligocene-to-Quaternary strata that cover pre-Tertiary rocks. The succession forms an E-dipping monocline, with tectonic growth structures increasing upward. Erosional truncations and thickness variations suggest a different evolution for the Siderno Basin, which in comparison with northern and southern parts of the Ionian accretionary wedge, evolved differently during the Serravallian–Tortonian stages. NW–SE and NE–SW fault systems are dominant, the first exhibiting strike–slip and normal kinematics in the Nicotera–Gioiosa and Molochio–Antonimina fault zones. These structures were active during infilling of the Neogene basin, and represent a complex transfer zone.

The NE–SW system shows two types of tectonic kinematics: (1) a compressive stage, with NW–SE-orientated shortening, responsible for inversion tectonics documented by east-verging folds, thrusts, and back-thrusts, and (2) emplacement of the variegated clay during the Langhian, which is related to back-thrust propagation. The strike–slip accommodated stress generated in the accretionary prism in response to subduction of Ionian lithosphere and progradation of the accretionary front of the Calabrian forearc.     

Geochronology and provenance of detrital zircons from late Palaeozoic strata of central Jilin Province,Northeast China: implications for the tectonic evolution of the eastern Central Asian Orogenic Belt

Here we present new U–Pb and Hf isotopic data for detrital zircons obtained from six samples of late Palaeozoic units from central Jilin Province, Northeast China, and use these data and sedimentary formations to constrain the late Palaeozoic tectonic evolution of the eastern segment of the southern margin of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt. The majority of the detrital zircons from the six samples are euhedral–subhedral and exhibit oscillatory zoning, indicating a magmatic origin. Zircons from sandstones in the Devonian Wangjiajie and Xiaosuihe formations yield seven main age populations (399, 440, 921, 1648, 1864, 1911, and 2066 Ma) and two minor age populations (384 and 432 Ma), respectively. Zircons from a quartz sandstone in the Carboniferous Luquantun Formation yield four age populations (~332, 363, 402, and 428 Ma), and zircons from quartz sandstones of the Permian Shoushangou, Fanjiatun, and Yangjiagou formations yield age populations of 265, 369, 463, 503, and 963 Ma; 264, 310, 337, 486, and 529 Ma; and 262, 282, 312, 338, 380, 465, and 492 Ma, respectively. These data, together with the ages of magmatic zircons from interbedded volcanics and biostratigraphic evidence, as well as analysis of formations, give rise to the following conclusions. (1) The Wangjiajie and Xiaosuihe formations were deposited in an extensional environment during Middle and Middle–Late Devonian time, respectively. The former was sourced mainly from ancient continental material of the North China Craton with minor contributions from newly accreted crust, while the latter was sourced mainly from newly accreted crust. (2) The Luquantun Formation formed in an extensional environment during early–late Carboniferous time from material sourced mainly from newly accreted crust. (3) The Shoushangou, Fanjiatun, and Yangjiagou formations formed during a period of rapid uplift in the late Permian, from material sourced mainly from newly accreted crust.     

Ubiquitous post-peak zircon in an eclogite from the Kumdy-Kol,Kokchetav UHP-HP Massif (Kazakhstan): Significance of exhumation-related zircon growth and modification in continental-subduction settings

U–Pb geochronological, trace-element and Lu–Hf isotopic studies have been made on zircons from ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) mafic eclogite from the Kumdy-Kol area, one of the diamond-facies domains of the Kokchetav Massif (northern Kazakhstan). The peak eclogitic assemblage equilibrated at > 900 °C, whereas the bulk sample composition displays light rare-earth element (LREE) and Th depletion evident of partial melting. Zircons from the eclogite are represented by exclusively newly formed metamorphic grains and have U–Pb age spread over 533–459 Ma, thus ranging from the time of peak subduction burial to that of the late post-orogenic collapse. The major zircon group with concordant age estimates have a concordia age of 508.1 ±4.4 Ma, which corresponds to exhumation of the eclogite-bearing UHP crustal slice to granulite- or amphibolite-facies depths. This may indicate potentially incoherent exhumation of different crustal blocks within a single Kumdy-Kol UHP domain. Model Hf isotopic characteristics of zircons (ε_Hf(t) +1.5 to +7.8, Neoproterozoic model Hf ages of 1.02–0.79 Ga) closely resemble the whole-rock values of the Kumdy-Kol eclogites and likely reflect in situ derivation of HFSE source for newly formed grains. The ages coupled with geochemical systematics of zircons confirm that predominantly late zircon growth occurred in Th–LREE-depleted eclogitic assemblage, that experienced incipient melting and monazite dissolution in melt at granulite-facies depths, followed by amphibolite-facies rehydration during late-stage exhumation-related retrogression.     

Magmatic–hydrothermal processes in Sangdong W–Mo deposit,Korea: Study of fluid inclusions and 39Ar–40Ar geochronology

The Sangdong scheelite–molybdenite deposit in northeast South Korea consists of strata-bound orebodies in intercalated carbonate-rich layers in the Cambrian Myobong slate formation. Among them, the M1 layer hosts the main orebody below which lie layers of F1–F4 host footwall orebodies. Each layer was first skarnized with the formation of a wollastonite + garnet + pyroxene assemblage hosting minor disseminated scheelite. The central parts of the layers were subsequently crosscut by two series of quartz veining events hosting minor scheelite and major scheelite–molybdenite ores, respectively. The former veins associate amphibole–magnetite (amphibole) alteration, whereas the latter veins host quartz–biotite–muscovite (mica) alteration. Deep quartz veins with molybdenite mineralization are hosted in the Cambrian Jangsan quartzite formation beneath the Myobong formation. In the Sunbawi area, which is in close proximity to the Sangdong deposit, quartz veins with scheelite mineralization are hosted in Precambrian metamorphic basement. Three muscovite ³⁹Ar–⁴⁰Ar ages between 86.6 ± 0.2 and 87.2 ± 0.3 Ma were obtained from M1 and F2 orebodies from the Sangdong deposit and Sunbawi quartz veins. The Upper Cretaceous age of the orebodies is concordant with the published ages of the hidden Sangdong granite, 87.5 ± 4.5 Ma. This strongly suggests that the intrusion is causative for the Sangdong W–Mo ores and Sunbawi veins.Fluid inclusions in the quartz veins from the M1 and F2 orebodies, the deep quartz-molybdenite veins, and the Sunbawi veins are commonly liquid-rich aqueous inclusions having bubble sizes of 10–30 vol%, apparent salinities of 2–8 wt% NaCl eqv., and homogenization temperatures of 180–350 °C. The densities of the aqueous inclusions are 0.70–0.94 g/cm³. No indication of fluid phase separation was observed in the vein. To constrain the formation depth in the Sangdong deposit, fluid isochores are combined with Ti–in–quartz geothermometry, which suggests that the M1 and F2 orebodies were formed at depths of 1–3 km and 5–6 km below the paleosurface, respectively. The similarity of the Cs (cesium) concentrations and Rb/Sr ratios in the fluid inclusions of the respective orebodies indicate an origin from source magmas having similar degrees of fractionation and enrichment of incompatible elements such as W and Mo. High S concentrations in the fluids and possibly organic C in the sedimentary source likely promoted molybdenite precipitation in the Sangdong orebodies, whereas the scheelite deposition in the deep quartz–molybdenite veins hosted in the quartzite is limited by a lack of Ca and Fe in the hydrothermal fluids. The molybdenite deposition in the Sunbawi quartz–molybdenite veins hosted in the Precambrian metamorphic basement rocks was possibly limited by a lack of reducing agents such as organic C.     

Age,composition, and source of continental arc- and syn-collision granites of the Neoproterozoic Sergipano Belt,Southern Borborema Province,Brazil

The Sergipano belt is the outcome of collision between the Pernambuco-Alagoas Domain (Massif) and the São Francisco Craton during Neoproterozoic assembly of West Gondwana. Although the understanding of the Sergipano belt evolution has improved significantly, the timing of emplacement, geochemistry and tectonic setting of granitic bodies in the belt is poorly known. We recognized two granite age groups: 630–618 Ma granites in the Canindé, Poço Redondo and Macururé domains, and 590–570 Ma granites in the Macururé metasedimentary domain. U–Pb SHRIMP zircon ages for granites of first age group indicated ages of 631 ± 4 Ma for the Sítios Novos granite, 623 ± 7 Ma for the Poço Redondo granite, 619 ± 3.3 Ma for the Lajedinho monzodiorite, and 618 ± 3 Ma for the Queimada Grande granodiorite. These granitoids are dominantly high-K calc-alkaline, magnesian, metaluminous, mafic enclave-rich (Queimada Grande and Lajedinho), or with abundant inherited zircon grains (Poço Redondo and Sitios Novos). Geochemical and isotope data allow us to propose that Sítios Novos and Poço Redondo granites are product of partial melting of Poço Redondo migmatites. Sr-Nd isotopes of the Queimada Grande granodiorite and Lajedinho monzodiorite suggest that their parental magma may have originated by mixing between a juvenile mafic source and a crustal component that could be the Poço Redondo migmatites or the Macururé metasediments. Other 630–618 Ma granites in the belt are the mafic enclave-rich Coronel João Sá granodiorite and the Camará tonalite in the Macururé sedimentary domain. These granites have similar geochemical and isotopic characteristics as the Lajedinho and Queimada Grande granitoids. We infer for the Camará tonalite and Coronel João Sá granodiorite that their parental magmas have had contributions from mafic lower crust and felsic upper crust, most probably from underthrust São Francisco Craton, or Pernambuco-Alagoas Domain. The younger 590–570 Ma granite group is confined to the Macururé metasedimentary domain. Although these granites do not show typical features of S-type granites, their U–Pb age, field relationships, geochemical and Sr-Nd data suggest that their parental magmas have originated from high degree melting of the Macururé micaschists. Field observations support a model in which the Macururé domain, limited by the Belo Monte-Jeremoabo and São Miguel do Aleixo shear zones, behaved as a ductile channel flow for magma migration and emplacement during the Neoproterozoic, very much like the channel flow model proposed for emplacement of leucogranites in the Himalayas.     

Dinosaur ichnofauna of the Upper Jurassic/Lower Cretaceous of the Paraná Basin (Brazil and Uruguay)

Upper Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous sedimentary layers are represented in the Brazilian Paraná Basin by the fluvio–aeolian Guará Formation and the Botucatu Formation palaeoerg, respectively, overlapped by the volcanic Serra Geral Formation. In Uruguay, the corresponding sedimentary units are named Batoví and Rivera Members (both from the Tacuarembó Formation), and the lava flows constitute the Arapey Formation (also in Paraná Basin). Despite the lack of body fossils in the mentioned Brazilian formations, Guará/Batoví dinosaur fauna is composed of theropod, ornithopod and wide–gauge sauropod tracks and isolated footprints, as well as theropod teeth. In turn, the Botucatu/Rivera dinosaur fauna is represented by theropod and ornithopod ichnofossils smaller than those from the underlying units. The analysis of these dinosaur ichnological records and comparisons with other global Mesozoic ichnofauna indicates that there is a size reduction in dinosaur fauna in the more arid Botucatu/Rivera environment, which is dominated by aeolian dunes. The absence of sauropod trackways in the Botucatu Sandstone fits with the increasingly arid conditions because it is difficult for heavy animals to walk on sandy dunes, as well as to obtain the required amount of food resources. This comparison between the Upper Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous dinosaur fauna in south Brazil and Uruguay demonstrates the influence of aridization on the size of animals occupying each habitat.