国外中期数值预报业务模式的性能及发展趋势

作者简单介绍了国内预报员较为熟悉的欧洲中期天气预报中心，美国国家气象中心和日本气象厅三个中期预报模式的性能及预报效果，包括近几年颇为流行的半拉格朗日时间积分方案，物理过程参数化方案的完善和改进，中期数值预报业务模式的发展趋势等。     

车田湾地热田地质地球物理特征及开发前景

车田湾地热田属低温地热资源。热泉分布受ＳＮ向压扭性深大断裂（Ｆ２）与近ＥＷ向张性断裂的复合控制，其断层破碎带为硅化脉充填，表现为高阻地电特征。应用电测深法可以确定其断层破碎带产出位置和延伸方向。用钾镁地热温标计算热田地表温度，用钾钠地热温标计算热田深部温度。根据温度随深度而递增的规律，应用温度－深度曲线方法推算地下某深度的水温，从而可合理开发利用地热资源。     

陕西渭北煤田5#煤层粘土岩夹矸的研究

渭北煤田面积约１０万ｋｍ２。分布于太原组顶部５＃煤层中的粘土岩夹矸，上部层位分为两上分层，上分层夹矸厚度薄，下分层夹矸厚约０２ｍ，俗称“２００矸”；下部层位夹矸厚度变化较大。该文详细论述了粘土岩夹矸的岩矿特征。根据“２００矸”中含有副象β－石英、高透长石、锆石、磁铁矿等高温矿物组合，特有的粒序层理和岩性在全煤田十分稳定等特点，表明其原始物质来源于降落火山灰。根据ＴｉＯ２／Ａｌ２Ｏ３比值的明显变化，探讨了陆源组分的加入对火山灰蚀变粘土岩夹矸化学成分的影响。以“２００矸”为等时标志层，解决了５＃煤层在区域上的对比。     

内蒙古乌拉山金矿黄铁矿的标型特征

系统研究了乌拉山金矿黄铁矿的产状，晶体宏观形态，晶面微形貌，化学成分，热电性方面的标型特征，提出了一系列的重要找矿标志，为矿床的成因研究和深部远景评价提供了矿物学依据。     

Inferring the relative measure of principal stress components

The phase velocity and the attenuation coefficient of compressional seismic waves, propagating in poroelastic, fluid-saturated, laminated sediments, are computed analytically from first principles. The wavefield is found to be strongly affected by the medium heterogeneity. Impedance fluctuations lead to poroelastic scattering; variations of the layer compressibilities cause inter-layer flow (a 1-D macroscopic local flow). These effects result in significant attenuation and dispersion of the seismic wavefield, even in the surface seismic frequency range, 10–100 Hz. The various attenuation mechanisms are found to be approximately additive, dominated by inter-layer flow at very low frequencies. Elastic scattering is important over a broad frequency range from seismic to sonic frequencies. Biot's global flow (the relative displacement of solid frame and fluid) contributes mainly in the range of ultrasonic frequencies. From the seismic frequency range up to ultrasonic frequencies, attenuation due to heterogeneity is strongly enhanced compared to homogeneous Biot models. Simple analytical expressions for the P -wave phase velocity and attenuation coefficient are presented as functions of frequency and of statistical medium parameters (correlation lengths, variances). These results automatically include different asymptotic approximations, such as poroelastic Backus averaging in the quasi-static and the no-flow limits, geometrical optics, and intermediate frequency ranges.     

陇南山区农业气候资源特征与开发利用

分析了甘肃陇南山区农业气候资源的分布特征及其水平、垂直差异,提出了合理开发利用的农业决策建议,指出应利用资源优势建立名特优小商品生产基地。     

泥石流等级和灾度的定量计算

泥石流等级是描述一次泥石流规模大小的定量指标,泥石流灾度是描述一次泥石流造成社会损失大小的定量指标。这两个指标概念明确,简单易行,有利于使描述泥石流规模大小和灾情程度的术语逐步规范化、定量化和普及化。     

Hazard mapping based on macroseismic data considering the influence of geological conditions

The object of this study is to consider directly the influence of regional geological conditions on the assessment of seismic hazard. It is assumed that macroseismic data at individual locations contain, in an average way, the influence of geological conditions.A Data Base referring to 199 historical (5) and instrumental (194, in the 1947–1993 period) events with macroseismic information in 1195 locations of Portugal was built. For any given seismic event, whenever macroseismic information was available at a location (town, village, etc.), an EMS-92 intensity value was estimated. To each one of those locations a geological unit, representing the most common type of soil, was assigned, based on the Geological Portuguese Map at a scale 1:500 000; the geological units were grouped into three categories: soft, intermediate and hard soils.The Data Base was used to determine the attenuation laws in terms of macroseismic intensity for the three different geological site conditions, using multiple linear regression analysis. The reasonability of the laws was tested by (i) checking residual distributions and (ii) comparing the map of isoseismals of important earthquakes with the isoseismals generated by the attenuation curves derived for each one of the three different soil classes, taking into consideration the soil class of each site. The main results of attenuation modeling are: high dispersion on macroseismic intensity data; all the models predict intensity values, for short hypocentral distances, lower than the ones observed; and for some important analyzed earthquakes and for the observed range of distances, the models confirm the expectancy that macroseismic intensity increases from hard to soft soil.The approach to obtain the hazard assessment at each location consisted in the use of the attenuation law specifically derived for the class of soil of that particular location. This method, which considers the influence of the regional geology, was illustrated with the mapping of hazard for the country for several return periods. Comparison with previous maps not taking into consideration the regional geological conditions emphasizes the importance of this new parameter. It can be concluded that (i) soil segmentation is clearly the cause for hazard increase in the region to the north of Lisbon, especially at sites with soft and intermediate soils as the ones in lower Tagus valley; the maximum increase on hazard is, in any case, less than one degree; (ii) when geological conditions are disregarded in the attenuation regression analysis, hazard pattern is similar to the one obtained for the case of hard soil everywhere.     

用土的分形结构确定土的水份特征曲线

运用筛析法和比重计法，分析了宁夏膨胀土的颗粒分布，发现粒径介于0．002～0．1mm的粒度分布是分形的，分维介于2．46～2．67；运用上孔隙分布的分维确定水份特征曲线，得到了很好的结果。此外，还探讨了粒度分形分布的机制。     

Recent Advances in Prediction and Processing of Strong Ground Motions

We present an overview of our recent results on utilizing small earthquakes in the earthquake engineering practice. Site-specific ground motion time-histories of large earthquakes can be successfully simulated using recordings of small earthquakes which are often referred to as 'empirical Green's functions' in seismology. Another important practical problem is whether and how these observations can be used in seismic risk studies which are based on empirical attenuation relations for ground motion parameters. We study a possibility of extrapolating attenuation relations for small earthquakes, to larger magnitudes using the data from the Garner Valley downhole array in Southern California. Finally we introduce efficient ground motion processing techniques in frequency- and time-domains and apply them to site response estimation.