Water temperature modelling: comparison between the generalized additive model,logistic, residuals regression and linear regression models

Water temperature has a significant influence on aquatic organisms, including stenotherm fish such as salmonids. It is thus of prime importance to build reliable tools to forecast water temperature. This study evaluated a statistical scheme to model average water temperature based on daily average air temperature and average discharge at the Sainte-Marguerite River, Northern Canada. The aim was to test a non-parametric water temperature generalized additive model (GAM) and to compare its performance to three previously developed approaches: the logistic, residuals regression and linear regression models. Due to its flexibility, the GAM was able to capture some of the nonlinear response between water temperature and the two explanatory variables (air temperature and flow). The shape of these effects was determined by the trends shown in the collected data. The four models were evaluated annually using a cross-validation technique. Three comparison criteria were calculated: the root mean square error (RMSE), the bias error and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSC). The goodness of fit of the four models was also compared graphically. The GAM was the best among the four models (RMSE = 1.44°C, bias = ?0.04 and NSC = 0.94).     

压裂微震数据初至拾取的时频谱熵法

在油气田开发过程中,微震监测是获得水力压裂引起裂缝分布的一种较为有效的方法。微震的定位成像与裂缝解释需要利用有效微震信号位置,而微震信号具有低信噪比的特点,传统信号拾取方法无法有效实现较低信噪比条件下初至时刻的准确拾取。本文提出一种基于时频谱熵的初至拾取新方法,该方法首先通过S变换获取含噪信号的时频谱;然后对谱内各个采样点沿频率方向进行分帧操作,并计算每帧频段内的近似负熵值,以最小近似负熵值作为该谱点的负熵值;最后沿时间方向比较各谱点的负熵值,最小值对应的时刻即为初至时刻。本文利用不同信噪比的合成地震数据对该方法进行效果验证,并与长短时窗能量比（STA/LTA）法进行拾取结果对比,结果表明：信噪比在-5 dB时,两种方法拾取效果都很好;信噪比在-10 dB时,时频谱熵法拾取效果更好。时频谱熵法更适合低信噪比情况下的信号初至拾取。     

依兰-伊通断裂带地表温度变化分析

GPS结果显示,2011年3月11日日本MW9.0大地震引起了我国东北地区的拉张活动增强,其中,依兰——伊通断裂带最显著．这个变化在温度场中是否也有所响应是一个值得探讨的问题,也是一个利用地表温度进行现今构造活动探索的机会．本文利用2000——2011年的中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS)地表温度产品对东北地区地表温度进行了分析,以去除稳定年周期变化的年变残差作为研究对象, 通过空间和时间分析,排除地形、纬度、气象等干扰因素的影响,寻找与构造活动相关的热信息．结果表明, 2001年初和2010年初依兰——伊通断裂北段曾经出现了显著的降温现象,且降温过程持续约两个月．通过气象资料分析,初步认为上述现象并非由气象因素引起．这与GPS远场同震位移结果所显示的依兰——伊通断裂带在日本地震后出现相对比较明显的张性应变相吻合. 初步认为上述降温现象与依兰——伊通断裂的拉张增强有关．      

基于船载ADCP观测对罗源湾湾口断面潮流及余流的分析

基于对罗源湾可门水道的25 h连续走航ADCP观测,成功构建了沿走航断面共12个站位的连续海流时间序列,并对这些站位的潮流、余流以及潮通量等进行了分析。结果表明可门水道内的潮流为正规半日潮流,驻波性质明显,涨潮首先出现在水道中下层而退潮则首先发生在水道上层。水道内的潮流为往复流,水道南部M₂分潮流流速较大,并且其倾角自北向南逐渐增加。此外,水道两端的浅水区域内浅水分潮M₄振幅较显著。可门水道内余流呈现出两层结构,20 m以浅余流沿东北向流出海湾,并且出流的核心位置偏南,而20 m以深的余流沿西南向流入湾内,入流的流核位于偏北的近底层区域。对潮通量的积分计算表明通过可门水道进入罗源湾的潮通量约为4.81×108 m3。     

利用sPn震相计算九江-瑞昌地区地震的震源深度

近震震相sPn与Pn到时差与震中距无关,只与震源深度和地壳模型有关.应用此方法,计算了发生在九江-瑞昌地区两次地震的震源深度,结果表明,利用区域台网sPn-Pn的到时差确定地震震源深度较为可信.根据华南地区速度模型,建立了九江-瑞昌地区sPn与Pn到时差与震源深度便查表.     

远震层析成像在柴西狮子沟构造背景研究中的应用

利用2004——2007年在柴达木盆地西部狮子沟地区布设的地震台站的连续观测资料,挑选远震P波到时,采用远震体波走时层析成像方法进行反演处理,获得了该地区地下三维速度结构图象．反演结果表明,在研究观测地区西南侧存在一近北西走向的低速异常体,以较大倾角向北东方向插入;在该低速异常体的北部、东北部和东部环绕着相对高速的异常,其走向和分布范围基本与狮子沟背斜构造一致．      

Truncation of the distribution of ground-motion residuals

Recent studies to assess very long-term seismic hazard in the USA and in Europe have highlighted the importance of the upper tail of the ground-motion distribution at the very low annual frequencies of exceedance required by these projects. In particular, the use of an unbounded lognormal distribution to represent the aleatory variability of ground motions leads to very high and potentially unphysical estimates of the expected level of shaking. Current practice in seismic hazard analysis consists of truncating the ground-motion distribution at a fixed number (ε _max) of standard deviations (σ). However, there is a general lack of consensus regarding the truncation level to adopt. This paper investigates whether a physical basis for choosing ε _max can be found, by examining records with large positive residuals from the dataset used to derive one of the ground-motion models of the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) project. In particular, interpretations of the selected records in terms of causative physical mechanisms are reviewed. This leads to the conclusion that even in well-documented cases, it is not possible to establish a robust correlation between specific physical mechanisms and large values of the residuals, and thus obtain direct physical constraints on ε _max. Alternative approaches based on absolute levels of ground motion and numerical simulations are discussed. However, the choice of ε _max is likely to remain a matter of judgment for the foreseeable future, in view of the large epistemic uncertainties associated with these alternatives. Additional issues arise from the coupling between ε _max and σ, which causes the truncation level in terms of absolute ground motion to be dependent on the predictive equation used. Furthermore, the absolute truncation level implied by ε _max will also be affected if σ is reduced significantly. These factors contribute to rendering a truncation scheme based on a single ε _max value impractical.     

QOCA和GLOBK软件处理高精度GNSS网结果对比分析

分别利用GLOBK和QOCA软件对陆态网络260个基准站的GNSS观测数据进行处理,获得站点在ITRF2008框架下的坐标和速度。通过比较分析两个软件的解算结果,证明了QOCA 软件能更好地处理测站位移的非线性变化,并通过拟合周年、半年项、剔除共模误差等手段提高解算精度。结果表明,相比于GLOBK软件,QOCA软件得到的拟合残差序列的RMS在E、N、U 3个方向上分别减小70%、80%和70%。     

顾及双差残差反演GPS信号方向的斜路径水汽含量

给出了顾及GPS双差残差反演斜路径水汽SWV的解算流程;然后详细给出了双差残差到非差残差的转化算法,并对算法进行了改进;最后利用并址的GPS和WVR实测数据对反演SWV算法进行了验证,结果证实改进的反演算法能以优于4 mm精度近实时估算SWV值,与目前国际研究精度在同一量级。     

利用残差统计检验评估区域GPS大地测量网解算方案

采用美国喷气推进实验室JPL发展的GIPSY软件解算区域GPS网，比较了固家精密星历和同时固定精密星历及卫星钟参数2种解算方案，残差统计检验表明前者的左中仍保留了部分未解出的信号而后者的残差接近于白噪声高斯分布，解算结果与ITRF96的比较和对重复率的统计表明，残差分布合理的解算较优，简单的线差统计检验的计算可提供重要的解算评估。