A statistical approach to evaluating distance metrics and analog assignments for pollen records

The modern analog technique typically uses a distance metric to determine the dissimilarity between fossil and modern biological assemblages. Despite this quantitative approach, interpretation of distance metrics is usually qualitative and rules for selection of analogs tend to be ad hoc. We present a statistical tool, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which provides a framework for identifying analogs from distance metrics. If modern assemblages are placed into groups (e.g., biomes), this method can (1) evaluate the ability of different distance metrics to distinguish among groups, (2) objectively identify thresholds of the distance metric for determining analogs, and (3) compute a likelihood ratio and a Bayesian probability that a modern group is an analog for an unknown (fossil) assemblage. Applied to a set of 1689 modern pollen assemblages from eastern North America classified into eight biomes, ROC analysis confirmed that the squared-chord distance (SCD) outperforms most other distance metrics. The optimal threshold increased when more dissimilar biomes were compared. The probability of an analog vs no-analog result (a likelihood ratio) increased sharply when SCD decreased below the optimal threshold, indicating a nonlinear relationship between SCD and the probability of analog. Probabilities of analog computed for a postglacial pollen record at Tannersville Bog (Pennsylvania, USA) identified transitions between biomes and periods of no analog.     

Geoid determination using adapted reference field, seismic Moho depths and variable density contrast

 The traditional remove-restore technique for geoid computation suffers from two main drawbacks. The first is the assumption of an isostatic hypothesis to compute the compensation masses. The second is the double consideration of the effect of the topographic–isostatic masses within the data window through removing the reference field and the terrain reduction process. To overcome the first disadvantage, the seismic Moho depths, representing, more or less, the actual compensating masses, have been used with variable density anomalies computed by employing the topographic–isostatic mass balance principle. In order to avoid the double consideration of the effect of the topographic–isostatic masses within the data window, the effect of these masses for the used fixed data window, in terms of potential coefficients, has been subtracted from the reference field, yielding an adapted reference field. This adapted reference field has been used for the remove–restore technique. The necessary harmonic analysis of the topographic–isostatic potential using seismic Moho depths with variable density anomalies is given. A wide comparison among geoids computed by the adapted reference field with both the Airy–Heiskanen isostatic model and seismic Moho depths with variable density anomaly and a geoid computed by the traditional remove–restore technique is made. The results show that using seismic Moho depths with variable density anomaly along with the adapted reference field gives the best relative geoid accuracy compared to the GPS/levelling geoid. Received: 3 October 2001 / Accepted: 20 September 2002 Correspondence to: H.A. Abd-Elmotaal     

实验速度场测量技术及对流边界层特征研究

在对流槽中对对流边界层(CBL)温度场实验研究的基础上,进一步尝试通过实验技术测量速度场并分析研究CBL中的速度场特征。在应用PIV测量技术时选用铝粉作示踪粒子。实验证明了在混合层中速度分布明显具有对流边界层热泡特性;混合层顶部的速度分布很好地反应出夹卷层的结构特征;湍流速度特征量的垂直分布合理,与野外实测结果和类似的对流槽实验结果接近;误差分析表明示踪粒子的跟随性良好,粒子速度的测量结果能真实地反应流体的运动特征,从而得证了分析结果的可靠性。     

声波测试中振子衰减的线列阵模型

从声波在岩体中传播产生衰减的基本原理出发，建立了声波衰减振子的线列阵模型。该模型是将传播声波路径的岩体分为若干个振子，从波动概念出发，以振动原理作依据建立波动方程．为探讨岩体声波衰减机制提供了一种新的研究方法，把振动和波动直观地联系起来．单一方向上有限点的声波测试技术有可能被多方向的声测技术所代替．该模型的建立，使模态分析和参数识别方法应用到岩体声波测试技术中成为可能。     

二维波动方程约束反演的大范围收敛广义脉冲谱方法

针对二维波动方程，将大范围收敛的同伦 方法引入算子参数识别反演的过程，并结合求解不适定问题的Tikhonov正则化方法，设计了二维波动方程反演的大范围收敛广义脉冲谱方法，并利用测井资料进行了约束反演. 大量 的数值模拟结果以及抗噪实验均表明了方法的有效性.     

地震前兆观测仪器标定问题的探讨

标定工作，在地震前兆观测仪器的研究，使用及所得数据的处理中均已成为一个不可少的环节，但缺少有关标定问题的基石性研究和讨论。本文就标定的定义、种类、目的、要求、存在的问题等做一粗线的讨论，以期今后加强这一工作的深入研究。     

华北地区区域性暴雨综合预报技术

华北地区区域性暴雨综合预报技术是以ＨＬＡＦＳ数值降水预报产品为基础，以物理量诊断为主要依据，综合使用上卫星云图，常规气象资料和国内外数值预报产品等众多信息逐步订正，以人机结合方式制作华北地区区域性暴雨预报的技术。实验表明，该技术对华北暴雨有较好的判断和预报能力，其主要特点是；基本上模拟预报员的预报思维和业务流程制作暴雨预报１，系统分段执行，透明度大，便于改进，也有利于预报员了解暴发生发展的机理和规     

地球化学样品中硒的循序提取技术

研究开发了一种硒的循序偏提取步骤，将地球化学样品中的硒选择性地循序提取到六个“操作上”定义的相态中：水溶性硒（水提取）；吸附在氧化矿物和粘土矿物上配位可交换的亚硒酸根离子（０．１ｍｏｌ／ＬＫＨ２ＰＯ４提取）；与有机质结合的硒（０．１ｍｏｌ／ＬＮａ４Ｐ２Ｏ７提取）；与铁锰铝氧化物和碳酸盐结合的硒（４．０ｍｏｌ／ＬＨＣｌ提取）；硫化物中的硒（ＫＣｌＯ３＋浓ＨＣｌ提取）；硅酸盐残渣中以副矿物和被硅质包裹的硒微粒存在的硒（ＨＦ＋ＨＮＯ３＋ＨＣｌＯ４强混合酸溶解）。对提取步骤的可行性和实用性作了详细的讨论。     

Phase-array decomposition of a seismic section

A seismic re fraction/wide-angle reflection profile is analysed for the presence of correlated events ('phases'). The correlation problem is formulated in terms of temporally, spatially and frequency-local complex covariances. For robustness, the method concentrates on phase rather than amplitude information. This allows a computationally efficient algorithm that can make allowance for signal correlation length and can model curved wavefronts. A statistical test based on residual phase misfit across the analysed subarray is used to assess the probability that a detected event represents a real correlated signal.
With our chosen analysis parameters and confidence level (over 99.9 per cent). 1222 events were detected in the data. Using simple techniques based on 1-D earth models, detected events are associated with a small number of particular wave types. In this way, we have succeeded in classifying almost 95 per cent of the detected events. Those that remain describe those components of the data that are inconsistent with our simple ray paths in the 1-D assumption and with our prescribed tolerance. These include reverberations, near-surface guided waves and reflected waves from strongly laterally inhomogeneous structures. According to our modelling, about 25 per cent of the detected events are consistent with simple P -wave reflected energy, and these are to a very large extent (over 85 per cent) distinct from all the other wave-type models we have used. A direct mapping of the detected events into the offset-depth domain reveals dear internal and external consistencies among the detections for the various wave types. Estimated earth structure is consistent with models from previous analyses based on much larger data sets.
We have thus succeeded in extracting correlated events from the data and decomposing these, approximately but meaningfully, into distinct classes (ray paths)     

Noise reduction and detection of weak, coherent signals through phase-weighted stacks

We present a new tool for efficient incoherent noise reduction for array data employing complex trace analysis. An amplitude-unbiased coherency measure is designed based on the instantaneous phase, which is used to weight the samples of an ordinary, linear stack. The result is called the phase-weighted stack (PWS) and is cleaned from incoherent noise. PWS thus permits detection of weak but coherent arrivals. The method presented can easily be extended to phase-weighted cross-correlations or be applied in the τ p domain. We illustrate and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of PWS in comparison with other coherency measures and present examples. We further show that our non-linear stacking technique enables us to detect a weak lower-mantle P -to- S conversion from a depth of approximately 840 km on array data. Hints of an 840 km discontinuity have been reported; however, such a discontinuity is not yet established due to the lack of further evidence.